The 2026 ATP Brisbane International has been full of twists and turns, but as the tournament barrels into its quarterfinal round, all eyes are glued to the marquee matchup between Daniil Medvedev and Kamil Majchrzak. Scheduled for Friday, January 9, this clash on the hard courts of Brisbane promises intrigue, drama, and perhaps a few surprises. Medvedev, the tournament's top seed and world number 13, stands as the last remaining seed in the draw, while Majchrzak, ranked 59th, has carved out a Cinderella run as a lucky loser. Who could have predicted such a scenario at the outset?
Medvedev’s journey in Brisbane has been nothing short of dominant. Through two matches, he’s dropped only 10 games—a testament to his ruthless efficiency and the clear progress he’s made under the guidance of coach Thomas Johansson, a former Australian Open champion. Since teaming up with Johansson, Medvedev has consistently reached the business end of tournaments, making the quarterfinals or better in five of their seven events together. Most notably, he snapped a title drought in Almaty at the close of last season. That momentum has carried over to the new year, and his recent performances against Marton Fucsovics and Frances Tiafoe have only reinforced his status as the man to beat in Brisbane.
But let’s not overlook the remarkable story of Kamil Majchrzak. The Polish underdog’s route to the quarterfinals has been as unlikely as it is inspiring. Majchrzak initially failed to qualify for the main draw, but when Joao Fonseca withdrew at the last minute with a back injury, Majchrzak seized the opportunity as a lucky loser. He’s made the most of his second chance, saving three match points and withstanding a barrage of 44 aces from Reilly Opelka in a dramatic three-tiebreak victory. This marks Majchrzak’s first ATP quarterfinal since April 2025 in Marrakech—a drought that makes this run even sweeter for the 59th-ranked player.
As the only seeded player left standing, Medvedev carries the weight of expectation. The betting markets certainly reflect that; Medvedev enters the matchup as a heavy favorite, with odds ranging from -549 to -585 across major sportsbooks. These odds translate to an implied probability of roughly 81% to 84.6% that Medvedev will advance to the semifinals. His overall record on hard courts over the past 12 months is impressive: 33 wins against 16 losses, one title, and a break-point conversion rate of 37%. Medvedev’s serve has been rock solid, winning nearly 80% of his service games, while his return game—winning 31.1% of return games—puts constant pressure on his opponents.
Majchrzak, for his part, is no stranger to the grind. Over the last year, he’s compiled a 12-11 record on hard courts, winning 78.7% of his service games and 24% of his return games. While those numbers don’t leap off the page, they underscore a player who’s capable of holding his own against tough competition. His recent upset over Opelka was a masterclass in resilience and clutch play, and he’ll need every ounce of that tenacity if he hopes to topple Medvedev.
Predictions for the match have been nearly unanimous in backing Medvedev. Both Cheryl and Ricky, writing for TennGrands, picked Medvedev to win in straight sets. Statistical models echo this sentiment: Dimers’ machine learning simulations give Medvedev an 81% chance of victory, with a 76% likelihood that he’ll take the opening set. According to betting analytics, Medvedev has a 53% chance of covering a -4.5 game spread, and there’s a similar probability for the match to finish under 21.5 total games—suggesting a potentially straightforward affair.
Yet, tennis is a sport that thrives on the unexpected. Majchrzak’s route to this point—entering as a lucky loser, surviving a marathon against a big server, and now facing a top seed—reads like the plot of an underdog movie. The Polish player’s ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on his opportunities has made him a fan favorite this week. As one analyst put it, "Majchrzak’s run deserves a lot of acclaim, having entered the main draw as a lucky loser, but Medvedev will be efficient in absorbing all the pace and wear the Pole down."
Medvedev’s own journey has had its share of ups and downs. The Russian star, known for his unpredictable performances at the majors in 2025—where he won just one match across all four Grand Slams—rediscovered his groove at the end of last season. His title in Almaty was a turning point, and his partnership with Johansson appears to be bearing fruit. Medvedev’s sharpness this week in Brisbane, particularly against Fucsovics and Tiafoe, has been a reminder of the form that once propelled him to world number one.
For Majchrzak, this quarterfinal is more than just another match. It’s a validation of perseverance and proof that opportunity can knock when least expected. His last ATP quarterfinal came nearly nine months ago in Marrakech, and his victory over Opelka—saving match points and enduring a serve onslaught—showed a level of grit that could trouble even the best. While the odds are stacked against him, Majchrzak knows that stranger things have happened on the tennis court.
The match is set to begin at approximately 5:10 AM ET (2:10 AM PT) on Friday, and anticipation is building. For Medvedev, a win would reinforce his status as the tournament favorite and move him one step closer to the title. For Majchrzak, an upset would be the crowning achievement of a remarkable week and a career-defining moment.
Other quarterfinal action on Friday includes Sebastian Korda taking on Alex Michelsen—a battle of American talents that could signal the start of a new rivalry—and Brandon Nakashima facing Raphael Collignon. But it’s the Medvedev-Majchrzak clash that has captured the imagination of fans and analysts alike.
As the sun rises over Brisbane, the question remains: Can Majchrzak’s fairytale run continue, or will Medvedev’s methodical brilliance prove too much? One thing is certain—tennis fans are in for a treat as the ATP Brisbane International quarterfinals unfold.
With Medvedev’s form peaking and Majchrzak’s resilience on full display, the stage is set for a compelling showdown. The action is about to begin, and with so much on the line, both men will be leaving it all on the court. Stay tuned for what promises to be a memorable encounter in Brisbane.
