Maryland And Penn State Battle For First Big Ten Win

The Xfinity Center in College Park, Maryland, is set for a high-stakes noon showdown on January 18, 2026, as the Maryland Terrapins host the Penn State Nittany Lions in a Big Ten basketball clash. While neither team expected to be here—winless in conference play this deep into the season—the matchup offers both squads a rare lifeline in a grueling campaign. For Maryland (7-10 overall, 0-6 Big Ten) and Penn State (9-8 overall, 0-6 Big Ten), this is more than just another game; it’s an opportunity to finally break into the conference win column and perhaps reset the tone for the remainder of their seasons.

Maryland enters today’s contest after a bruising stretch, having lost seven of its last eight games. Most of those defeats have come by double digits, with the lone exception being a competitive eight-point loss at Virginia. The Terps’ struggles have been amplified by injuries, a new coaching regime, and a schedule that’s offered little mercy. First-year head coach Buzz Williams, who has yet to notch a Big Ten victory, acknowledged the pressure: “I got to do better,” Williams admitted last week. “And I’m trying to professionally, with great poise, to apply appropriate pressure to everyone in the program for those margins. Because when you win it’s not one thing and when you lose it’s not one thing. And we are doing a good job collecting the things that have prevented us from winning. And we’re salvaging and stopping a lot of those things.”

Today’s noon tip-off offers a brief respite before Maryland faces a daunting trio of ranked opponents: No. 13 Illinois, No. 12 Michigan State, and No. 5 Purdue. For the Terps, the matchup with Penn State feels like a must-win, especially since it’s one of the few remaining games KenPom still projects as a Maryland victory. The analytics site gives Maryland a narrow edge, predicting a 75-73 win, and the betting line opened with the Terps favored by 2.5 points—the first time since their early-season loss to Georgetown that they’ve been favored against a power conference team.

Penn State, for its part, is also reeling. The Nittany Lions have dropped four straight, but their losses have come against some of the nation’s top teams, including Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, and a tough home defeat to UCLA. Despite the setbacks, Penn State’s young roster has shown grit, keeping games close against elite competition—three of those losses to top-10 teams were decided by a combined 14 points. Yet, the Nittany Lions are dealing with their own injury woes. Freshman Kayden Mingo, who averages 14.9 points per game, is sidelined after nose surgery and has missed the last three games. Freddie Dilione V, the team’s second-leading scorer at 14.1 points per game, is questionable after spraining his ankle against UCLA. Additionally, Tibor Mirtič remains out with a knee injury. If Dilione can’t go, Penn State will be left with a thin backcourt and even fewer options for shot creation—a situation Maryland fans know all too well.

Maryland’s leading scorer, Pharrel Payne (17.5 ppg), has missed the last six games due to injury. Coach Williams has kept injury details close to the vest, refusing to address Payne’s status directly. In Payne’s absence, the Terps have leaned on Solomon Washington, who missed the first eight games of the season but has since provided a steady veteran presence, averaging 9.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Washington’s physicality on the glass will be crucial against a Penn State squad that ranks last in the Big Ten in field goal defense.

Perhaps the biggest X-factor for Maryland is senior guard Diggy Coit. Coit is coming off a 30-point explosion at USC and has proven he can take over games, notching previous high-scoring outings of 31 against Michigan and a career-high 41 against Mount St. Mary’s. With both teams struggling to generate consistent offense—Maryland owns a Big Ten-worst assist-to-turnover ratio of 0.8 and a true shooting percentage of just 44%—Coit’s ability to create his own shot could be the difference-maker. “Coit gives the Terps something Penn State may not have on Sunday: a guard capable of creating offense when things bog down,” noted one analyst.

History, at least, is on Maryland’s side. The Terps lead the all-time series 18-16 and have dominated at home, posting an 11-2 record against Penn State at the Xfinity Center. Their most recent meeting saw Maryland edge out a 68-64 victory on the road last season. Penn State, meanwhile, has managed just two wins in College Park, with the last coming in 2021.

Statistical trends add more intrigue to the matchup. Penn State’s offense has been efficient in some areas, averaging just 9.4 turnovers per game—tied for 14th best in Division I—and shooting 75% from the free throw line last season. However, their free throw rate this year is only 32%, third lowest in the Big Ten. Maryland, on the other hand, continues to struggle with ball movement and perimeter shooting, recording the second-lowest three-point percentage among Power Conference teams last season at 28%.

Against the spread, both teams have identical 7-10 records this season, further highlighting how evenly matched they are. Maryland has hit the moneyline in 21 of its last 35 games, while Penn State has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 away games. The over/under for today’s contest is set at 147.5 points, suggesting oddsmakers expect a moderately high-scoring affair despite both teams’ offensive inconsistencies.

Fans looking to catch the action can tune in to the Big Ten Network or stream the game via FUBO, which offers a free trial for new subscribers. For those keeping an eye on the betting markets, the models give Maryland a 59.8% confidence prediction to win, with a 54.1% chance to cover the spread.

Looking ahead, both teams face challenging schedules. Penn State’s upcoming slate includes matchups against Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern, and Minnesota, while Maryland braces for its run of ranked opponents. For now, though, all eyes are on the Xfinity Center, where something’s got to give. Will Maryland finally notch its first Big Ten win under Buzz Williams, or can Penn State overcome its injury woes and road struggles to steal a rare victory in College Park?

With so much at stake and both teams desperate to end their respective skids, today’s contest promises intensity, grit, and perhaps a few surprises. One thing’s certain—the Big Ten standings are guaranteed to look a little different by the end of the afternoon.