In the world of global commodities, few stories are as dynamic and consequential as the recent shifts in the manganese and precious metals markets. As 2025 unfolds, both sectors are experiencing pivotal changes—each with far-reaching implications for industry, investors, and the global economy at large.
Let’s start with manganese, a mineral whose importance has skyrocketed in recent years. Once considered just another input for making tough steel, manganese is now at the heart of the world’s clean energy ambitions. According to the International Manganese Institute, manganese is essential for producing high-strength steels and, crucially, for manufacturing electric batteries. This makes it a cornerstone of the energy transition that’s redefining industrial priorities across the globe.
For decades, Brazil stood tall among the world’s manganese giants. The country’s rich deposits—especially in Pará’s Carajás region—were the envy of many. But, as reported by Geological Survey of Brazil, the landscape began to shift in 2021 when OK, once a leading force, sold its main assets and reduced its market presence. The situation worsened in 2023 when Buritirama Mineração, Latin America’s largest manganese producer, declared bankruptcy due to debts owed to Dutch company C. Steinweg Handelsveem. These events marked the start of a tough new era for Brazil’s manganese industry.
Globally, the largest known manganese reserves are found in South Africa, trailed by Australia, China, and then Brazil. While Brazil’s Carajás region retains significant potential, smaller reserves in Mato Grosso do Sul and Bahia are also on the radar for future exploration. Still, the real game-changer isn’t just about where manganese is found—it’s about who controls its refining.
Here, China’s dominance is nearly absolute. As of 2023, the country controls over 90% of the world’s manganese refining capacity for electric batteries, according to recent data. China also leads the global supply of ferro-silicon-manganese, accounting for 68% of output, with India (14%), Japan (8%), and Malaysia (7%) trailing behind. In the low-carbon ferromanganese sector, China holds 44% of production, while India claims 22%. This concentration has created a structural dependency, with Chinese refining emerging as the most sensitive bottleneck in the industry.
As Brazil’s major players faltered, new contenders stepped up. In 2022, LHG Mining—founded by two Baptist brothers—entered the fray by acquiring Vale’s assets in Mato Grosso do Sul. Now the country’s second-largest producer, LHG Mining is aggressively expanding its footprint. Meanwhile, Maringá Ferro-Liga in São Paulo and Nexus Leagues in Minas Gerais have become the leading domestic producers of manganese alloys used in iron and silicon, ensuring a steady supply for Brazil’s manufacturing sector.
On the international front, companies like South32 (Australia), Ntsimbintle Holdings (South Africa), Eramet (France), Assamang (South Africa), China Minmetals, and Sinosteel (China) continue to set the pace in extraction and refining. Notably, since 2024, Ntsimbintle Holdings has begun transferring assets to Exxaro, further consolidating South Africa’s influence in the global manganese market.
Why is manganese suddenly so coveted? Its role in electric vehicle batteries is a big part of the answer. Thanks to its durability and impressive storage capacity, manganese is a go-to material for the booming EV industry. Its relative abundance and low production cost only add to its appeal. No wonder it’s now listed among the eight most valued critical minerals of the decade, right alongside nickel, lithium, niobium, cobalt, copper, graphite, and rare earths.
But Brazil’s future as a manganese powerhouse is far from assured. Experts argue that to regain its former glory, Brazil must invest in technology, strengthen governance, embrace sustainable practices, and overhaul mining policies. The stakes couldn’t be higher: either Brazil seizes this historic opportunity to climb back to the top of the world market or risks remaining a mere exporter of raw potential while others refine the future.
Meanwhile, in the world of precious metals, another drama is playing out. Chris Puplava, Chief Investment Officer at Financial Sense Wealth Management, recently made headlines for his prescient call in mid-October 2025. He warned that gold and silver were “extremely overheated” after a parabolic rise, suggesting a short- to intermediate-term peak was imminent. According to Financial Sense Newshour, both metals topped out almost immediately after his warning, with gold hitting an all-time high of $4,381 and silver reaching $54.49 before a swift pullback by early November.
In a recent podcast, Puplava offered his updated outlook: “The short-term [outlook] is bearish; however, the intermediate term and long term are still bullish.” He explained that gold is currently trading below its 20-day moving average—a technical sign of short-term weakness—but remains above its 50-day average, keeping the intermediate outlook positive. If gold slips below the 50-day, he cautioned, “we likely have a retest of the 200-day, which could mean a further 500-point or more drop.” On the other hand, if gold can “dig in its heels” and reclaim the 20-day average, “then I would say that this correction is over and we’re likely headed higher.”
Silver, often the more volatile sibling, is in a similar spot. Puplava sees a possible “inverse head and shoulders bottom” pattern forming—a classic signal for a trend reversal. He notes, “If silver can clear $50, to me, that would mark a short-term head and shoulders bottom. And the target on that would be roughly $53.50 on the upside.” But, like gold, silver is still below its 20-day moving average, so near-term risks remain.
Drawing on historical parallels, Puplava referenced the gold rally of 2019—when aggressive money printing by the Federal Reserve propelled the metal to new heights—and even the inflationary surges of the 1970s. He suggests that a similar scenario could unfold if the Fed is forced to ramp up money printing alongside rate cuts. Yet, he’s quick to caution: history doesn’t always repeat exactly, and extreme overbought conditions have sometimes led to years of sideways action.
Perhaps the most intriguing part of Puplava’s analysis is his view on gold’s evolving role. “Gold is taking over as the premier reserve asset of the world for central bankers, for global investors,” he asserts. With trust in government bonds and fiat currencies eroding—thanks in part to ballooning debt and geopolitical uncertainty—gold is increasingly seen as the preferred safe haven, even over traditional benchmarks like U.S. Treasuries or major foreign currencies.
So, what’s the bottom line for investors? Puplava advocates vigilance and tactical patience. The forces propelling gold and silver—shifting global trust, central bank maneuvers, and macroeconomic uncertainty—aren’t going away. “Stay tactical, stay patient, and don’t lose sight of the new era that may be unfolding for precious metals,” he advises.
As the world navigates the dual challenges of resource competition and financial uncertainty, the stories of manganese and precious metals serve as reminders: adaptation, foresight, and bold investment are the keys to shaping the future.