The Premier League returns in full force this Saturday, September 27, 2025, as Manchester City prepare to host newly-promoted Burnley at the Etihad Stadium. After a dramatic draw against Arsenal before the international break, Pep Guardiola’s side looks to reassert their dominance in the league, while Scott Parker’s Burnley aim to pull off a major upset against the reigning champions.
Manchester City’s recent form has been a mixed bag of resilience and frustration. Their last Premier League outing saw them grind out a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium, with Erling Haaland finishing off a swift counter-attack assisted by Tijjani Reijnders. It was a match that displayed both City’s tactical flexibility and their vulnerability, as Gabriel Martinelli’s injury-time equaliser denied them all three points. The result left City trailing league leaders Liverpool by eight points—a gap Guardiola is eager to close as quickly as possible.
In cup action, however, City looked far more assured. They cruised to a 2-0 victory away at Huddersfield Town in the Carabao Cup third round, with Phil Foden and Savinho finding the net and booking a fourth-round clash with Swansea City. That win capped a September in which City notched three victories and a draw across all competitions, scoring eight goals and conceding just one in the process.
But the narrative heading into Saturday’s fixture is not just about City’s quest for points. It’s also about the squad’s ongoing injury woes. Mateo Kovacic is back in training but remains short of full fitness, making his involvement uncertain. The likes of Rayan Ait-Nouri, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rayan Cherki, and Omar Marmoush are all sidelined, forcing Guardiola to get creative with his lineup. Khusanov’s absence at right-back, in particular, has opened the door for either Rico Lewis or Matheus Nunes to step into the starting eleven. Youngster Nico O’Reilly is expected to continue at left-back, filling in for Ait-Nouri until after the next international break.
Despite these setbacks, City’s attacking options remain formidable. Erling Haaland, who sat out the Carabao Cup tie to nurse a minor back issue, is set to return to the starting lineup. The Norwegian striker has been in electrifying form this season, racking up six goals in five Premier League appearances and an astonishing 13 goals in eight matches for club and country. According to Betfred Insights, “The goal at Arsenal was absolutely sensational and shows how much better than any other striker in the Premier League he is.” Haaland’s hot streak was further underlined by his five-goal haul for Norway against Moldova during the recent international break.
Pep Guardiola’s likely starting XI for the Burnley clash is a testament to both necessity and opportunity: Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal; a back four of Rico Lewis, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, and Nico O’Reilly; Rodri anchoring the midfield, flanked by Tijjani Reijnders and Phil Foden; an attacking trio of Bernardo Silva, Haaland, and Jeremy Doku. The bench is expected to feature James Trafford, Matheus Nunes, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Mfuni, Nico, Mukasa, Savinho, and Oscar Bobb—offering depth, but also highlighting the number of first-team absentees.
Burnley, on the other hand, arrive at the Etihad with a mountain to climb. The Clarets, under Scott Parker, have shown flashes of grit in recent matches, including a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest and spirited performances against Manchester United and Liverpool. Nevertheless, their recent Carabao Cup exit at the hands of Cardiff City and a late 1-0 defeat to Liverpool underscore the challenge they face against a City side desperate to get back to winning ways.
Parker is expected to deploy a robust 5-4-1 formation, with Lesley Ugochukwu—fresh from serving a one-match suspension—and Josh Cullen anchoring the midfield. Burnley’s predicted lineup features Dubravka in goal, supported by a back five of Kyle Walker, Josh Laurent, Hjalmar Ekdal, Maxime Esteve, and Hartman. Up front, Zeki Amdouni is likely to lead the attack, with support from Tchaouna, Anthony, and the ever-industrious midfield.
The odds, unsurprisingly, are heavily stacked in City’s favor. Bookmakers have installed Guardiola’s men as 2/11 favorites, giving them an implied win probability of 85%. Burnley are 16/1 outsiders, with punters expecting “one-way traffic” at the Etihad, as described by Betfred Insights. The statistical history doesn’t make for pleasant reading for Clarets fans either: Manchester City have won their last 18 encounters with Burnley, conceding just five goals in that span since March 2015. Eight of the last nine of those victories have come with clean sheets for City.
Yet, football has a habit of springing surprises. Burnley’s recent resilience and the unpredictable nature of the Premier League mean that nothing can be taken for granted. The referee for Saturday’s fixture, Rob Jones, adds another layer of intrigue. His previous decisions involving City—most notably the controversial sending off of Rico Lewis against Crystal Palace last season—have not gone unnoticed. Former PGMOL chief Keith Hackett commented, “Frankly, the appointment of Rob Jones to officiate this game highlights the lack of thought going into the appointment process.” Guardiola, keen to avoid any more contentious calls, will hope for a smooth afternoon on the officiating front.
For City, the stakes are clear. Sitting eight points behind Liverpool, every match is now a must-win if they are to keep pace in the title race. The imminent return of Champions League action, with a tie against Monaco next week, only heightens the importance of managing squad fitness and maintaining momentum domestically. Guardiola is expected to field his strongest available side, with potential for rotation in the second half if the result is secure.
As for Burnley, the trip to Manchester represents both a daunting task and a golden opportunity. A positive result would not only boost morale but could also serve as a turning point in their campaign. With a well-drilled defensive setup and the potential for quick counter-attacks, Parker’s men will be looking to frustrate City and, perhaps, snatch an unlikely point—or more.
With kickoff set for 15:00 BST at the Etihad, all eyes will be on whether City can overcome their injury troubles and reassert their Premier League credentials, or if Burnley can defy the odds and write a new chapter in this fixture’s history. The action is set, the stakes are high, and with Erling Haaland leading the line, fireworks could be in store. One thing’s for sure: Manchester is ready for another enthralling afternoon of top-flight football.
