After weeks of unseasonably dry and mild weather, Northern California is bracing for a much-anticipated return of winter storms. Meteorologists and emergency officials are sounding the alarm: residents should prepare for several rounds of rain and mountain snow, starting Tuesday, February 11, 2026, and stretching well into the following week. For a region that’s seen its snowpack dwindle to just 53% of normal, according to the Department of Water Resources, this shift couldn’t come soon enough.
It’s been more than a month since the last meaningful storm crossed the Sierra Nevada, leaving both the Lake Tahoe basin and the valleys below thirsting for precipitation. As Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in the Bay Area, explained to the San Francisco Chronicle, “For weeks, a jet stream has been pointing to areas above California, including Canada and the Pacific Northwest, pushing any moisture northward and missing the Sierra Nevada entirely.” But now, he said, the jet stream is finally moving, opening the so-called “storm door.” Flynn added, “When the jet stream points at us, that’s where we start to get this train of storms that just come one after the other.”
The first of these storms is set to arrive midday Tuesday, February 11, and continue through Wednesday, February 12. Both days have been designated as weather Impact Days by the KCRA 3 weather team, with scattered rain showers and light to moderate Sierra snow expected to persist through Wednesday. According to KCRA 3, “This system won’t be strong, but it will bring the first round of meaningful rain and snow we’ve seen in a while.”
Snowfall forecasts vary by elevation. Donner Summit could see 8 to 12 inches of snow, Echo Summit is expected to receive 6 to 10 inches, and the Sierra crest at elevations of 7,000–8,000 feet could get up to 18 inches, as reported by the Reno Gazette Journal and San Francisco Chronicle. For those at lake level in the Tahoe basin, 1 to 3 inches of slushy snow are anticipated, while moderate accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible through Wednesday.
Rainfall will also be widespread, though not extreme. The valleys along and north of Interstate 80 can expect between a quarter-inch and an inch of rain, while areas south of I-80 may receive up to three-quarters of an inch. The adjacent Foothills could see double those amounts, according to KCRA 3. Roads in the Valley and Foothills will be wet, but flooding is not expected. However, chain controls are likely on Sierra passes, and hazardous travel conditions are forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a winter weather advisory for the Tahoe basin and northeast California, effective from 10 p.m. Monday, February 9, through 4 p.m. Wednesday, February 11. Winds could gust up to 35 mph in the Tahoe basin, with even stronger gusts—up to 65 or 75 mph—along the ridges. On Lake Tahoe, choppy water conditions are expected, with waves from 1 to 3 feet; officials are advising small watercraft to remain off the water during this period.
Travelers, especially those planning to cross Donner Pass on Interstate 80 or head into the Sierra for Valentine’s Day, should pay close attention to weather updates. The National Weather Service in Sacramento cautions that “mountain travel could become very difficult at times,” with chain controls and travel delays likely. Mark Deutschendorf, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Reno, emphasized the importance of these storms: “With the increasing Pacific storm systems, we’re finally able to get rain and snow back into California, finally get some snow for the Sierra, which has fallen well below its averages for this point in the season.”
For those keeping an eye on the week ahead, Thursday, February 13, and Friday, February 14, are expected to be mostly clear—a brief break for anyone hoping to access the mountains and enjoy the fresh snow. But don’t get too comfortable. Another, much stronger storm is expected to roll in late Saturday, February 14, just in time for Washington’s Birthday weekend. This system, described as slow-moving and potentially intense, could bring “feet of heavy snow to the Sierra passes over a period of several days starting Sunday,” according to KCRA 3. Valley rain totals may be measured in inches between Sunday and early the following week.
Deutschendorf warned that “we could see near constant periods of snow, late Saturday until early the middle next week. Travel will become much more difficult once we get … from Sunday onward.” Those with plans for Valentine’s Day—especially in the Sierra—should monitor the forecast closely and be ready to adjust plans if conditions deteriorate.
Detailed seven-day forecasts for both Reno and Lake Tahoe reflect this dynamic pattern. Temperatures in Reno will hover in the low 50s during the day and dip into the 20s and 30s at night, with rain likely Tuesday and Wednesday, and mostly sunny skies Thursday and Friday. Lake Tahoe will see highs in the upper 40s at lake level and upper 30s at higher elevations, with snow likely Wednesday and a chance of snow again Saturday. The heaviest snow is expected Sunday, February 15, with highs near 35 at lake level and 30 at higher elevations.
For those traveling or living in the area, several resources are available to monitor conditions. The Nevada Department of Transportation and Caltrans offer up-to-date highway conditions, weather station data, and traffic camera feeds on their respective websites. NV Energy provides public access to weather station data updated every ten minutes, and the ALERTWildfire network lets users view live camera feeds from around the region.
Ultimately, this shift in the weather pattern brings hope for California’s water supply and the ski industry, both of which have been anxiously awaiting a return to winter. But it also serves as a reminder of just how quickly conditions can change in the Sierra Nevada. As the jet stream opens the floodgates for Pacific storms, residents and travelers alike would do well to keep their eyes on the sky—and their hands on the wheel.