The Brisbane International is buzzing with anticipation as Madison Keys and Diana Shnaider prepare to square off in the third round, marking their third career meeting in what promises to be a high-octane showdown. Scheduled for Thursday, January 8, 2026, at 2:30 pm on SHOW COURT 1, this clash features two players coming off dominant performances, each eager to stake their claim in the tournament’s later stages.
Madison Keys, currently ranked No. 7 in the world, is making her return to Brisbane for the first time since 2020—a year she memorably reached the final. With two title defenses looming later in the month, Keys has plenty on the line and is keen to build momentum early in the season. Her campaign got off to a smooth start as she dispatched fellow American McCartney Kessler in straight sets, 6-4, 6-3. The match lasted just under an hour and a half, with Keys showcasing her trademark aggressive baseline play and powerful serve.
Keys’ performance against Kessler was clinical. She landed 69% of her first serves and won a commanding 71% of those points (30 out of 42). Her second serve held up well, too, with a 63% win rate (12 out of 19). She struck 2 aces, countered by 3 double faults, and demonstrated resilience under pressure by saving five out of six break points. On return, she broke Kessler’s serve three times, converting 38% of her break opportunities (3 out of 8). In total, Keys outscored her opponent 70 points to 55 and blasted 30 winners, a testament to her aggressive style and sharp shot-making.
“I felt good out there,” Keys said after her win, according to multiple sources. “It’s always special to be back in Brisbane, and I’m just trying to keep building my game with each match.”
On the other side of the net stands Diana Shnaider, the 21-year-old Russian who’s quickly making a name for herself on the WTA Tour. Ranked No. 21, Shnaider is enjoying her best-ever run in Brisbane, having reached the third round for the first time. She opened her tournament with an impressive straight-sets victory over Austria’s newly naturalized Anastasia Potapova, cruising 6-1, 6-3. Shnaider’s lefty power and tactical variety were on full display as she dictated play from the baseline and exploited Potapova’s inconsistent serve.
Shnaider’s stats from her win over Potapova are eye-catching. She landed 69% of her first serves and won a remarkable 80% of those points (32 out of 40), while also firing 4 aces. Despite 5 double faults and a more modest 33% win rate on second serve (6 out of 18), Shnaider’s aggressive return game allowed her to break Potapova five times, converting 56% of her break points (5 out of 9). She saved six of seven break points faced, showing nerves of steel at crucial moments. In total, Shnaider scored 67 points to Potapova’s 43 and racked up 32 winners, signaling her intent to challenge the game’s elite.
“This is officially my best run in Brisbane and I’m just taking it one match at a time,” Shnaider told reporters. “I know Madison is a tough opponent, but I’m feeling confident in my game right now.”
The head-to-head between Keys and Shnaider favors the American, who leads 2-0. Their most recent encounter came in the quarterfinals in London on June 13, 2025, where Keys rallied for a 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory. Before that, Keys defeated Shnaider in straight sets at the 2024 Miami Open. Still, Shnaider managed to take a set in their last meeting, suggesting she’s closing the gap and ready to pose a real threat.
Both players have started 2026 with a 1-0 record on hard courts, and both have yet to drop a set in Brisbane this year. Statistically, the two are closely matched in this tournament: Keys has played 19 games and scored 70 points in her opener, while Shnaider has played 16 games and scored 67 points. Keys’ 43% winners-to-total-points ratio is just a shade behind Shnaider’s 48%, highlighting the Russian’s slightly more aggressive approach in her opening match. On serve, Shnaider holds the edge in first-serve points won (80% to Keys’ 71%), but Keys is far more reliable on second serve (63% to Shnaider’s 33%). Both players have been broken only once and have shown strong break point defense, with Keys saving 83% and Shnaider saving 86% of break points faced.
Looking at their recent form, Keys boasts a solid track record on hard courts, compiling a 134-69 record over the past several years. Her consistency and experience on this surface make her a perennial threat in any tournament. Shnaider, meanwhile, has steadily improved her hard-court game, with a 16-16 record in 2025 and a stellar 31-15 mark in 2024. Her rapid rise up the rankings and her ability to notch big wins against top players have made her one to watch in 2026.
What can fans expect from this third-round duel? The consensus among analysts is that Keys enters as the slight favorite, with betting odds reflecting her edge—she’s listed at 1.65 to Shnaider’s 2.23. Many predict a tight contest, with some tipping Keys to prevail in three sets. There’s also a strong case for Shnaider keeping things close, especially given her +2.5 games handicap in betting markets. Her lefty angles and raw power could force Keys into extended rallies and uncomfortable positions, potentially testing the American’s movement and patience.
The match is set against a backdrop of a packed draw, with other top seeds like Jessica Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina also advancing. But all eyes will be on SHOW COURT 1 as Keys and Shnaider renew their budding rivalry. For Keys, it’s a chance to reassert her status as a title contender and build confidence ahead of a busy January. For Shnaider, it’s an opportunity to notch a career-defining win and announce herself as a genuine force on the WTA Tour.
As the tennis world tunes in, the stage is set for a battle of power, precision, and nerves. Will Keys’ experience and serving prowess carry her through, or will Shnaider’s fearless shot-making and hunger for a breakthrough upset the odds? One thing’s for sure: Brisbane is in for a treat as two of the tour’s most exciting talents go head-to-head, with a place in the quarterfinals hanging in the balance.
With both players in top form and the stakes higher than ever, Thursday’s encounter promises to deliver drama, intensity, and world-class tennis. As the action unfolds, fans and pundits alike will be watching closely to see who emerges from this heavyweight clash with their title hopes intact.
