On the island nation of Madagascar, change has come abruptly and with a thunderous roar from both the streets and the barracks. In a dramatic culmination of weeks of unrest, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT military unit, is set to be sworn in as Madagascar’s transitional president on October 17, 2025, following a military coup that ousted President Andry Rajoelina. The move has sent shockwaves through the region and drawn swift condemnation from international organizations, including the African Union and the United Nations, even as many on the ground see it as the result of a youth-driven uprising demanding a better future.
The sequence of events began to unfold in earnest on October 14, when Randrianirina and his troops joined forces with the demonstrators who had filled the streets of Antananarivo, Madagascar’s capital, for nearly a month. According to the Associated Press, these protests were led by youth groups under the banner “Gen Z Madagascar,” but also included labor unions and civic organizations. Their grievances were both broad and urgent: chronic water and electricity outages, limited access to higher education, rampant government corruption, and an entrenched poverty rate affecting about three out of every four Madagascans, based on World Bank data.
“This is a civil society uprising and its resolution should not involve the military,” observed Olufemi Taiwo, professor of Africana studies at Cornell University, in comments to the Associated Press. Yet, as the days wore on and the government’s response grew more forceful—culminating in a crackdown that left 22 dead and over 100 injured, according to United Nations figures—the momentum shifted. Many demonstrators began to see the military not as an adversary, but as a potential ally in their quest for change.
The turning point came on Saturday, October 11, when Randrianirina and his soldiers openly sided with the protesters, calling for President Rajoelina’s resignation. By Tuesday, October 14, the military had seized power, with Randrianirina announcing, “We are staying here for at least 18 months, at most two years,” as reported by the Associated Press. He added, “There must be an oath-taking,” signaling his intent to formalize his position as head of state in the coming days. The appointment is set to be made official during a hearing of the High Constitutional Court on October 17, according to a statement published by state television and cited by Al Jazeera.
For President Rajoelina, the writing was on the wall. He fled the country, citing fears for his life, and was subsequently impeached by lawmakers. Despite being ousted, Rajoelina condemned the military takeover and refused to accept its legitimacy, insisting from exile that, “What is he saying is illegal? We have an order from the High Constitutional Court. We did not force the HCC or point a gun at it to issue this,” as Randrianirina told the Associated Press. However, Rajoelina’s office argued that some court judges had been threatened into approving the colonel’s ascension.
The military’s first acts were sweeping: Randrianirina announced the dissolution of all state institutions except for the National Assembly, a move confirmed at a press briefing on October 15. He also promised that the military would govern for a transitional period—no less than 18 months, and no more than two years—before new elections would be held. To address the ongoing crisis, he said the military was “accelerating” the appointment of a new prime minister, though no specific timeline was provided.
While some international observers have been quick to denounce the coup, within Madagascar, the reaction has been more complex. Demonstrators reportedly cheered Randrianirina and his soldiers as they paraded through Antananarivo, with protest leader Safika telling the Associated Press, “The military is listening to us. The takeover was an awakening of the people. It was launched by the youth. And the military supported us.” Safika added a note of caution: “We must always be wary, but the current state of affairs gives us reason to be confident.”
However, not everyone is convinced that the military’s intervention is the answer to Madagascar’s woes. The country, home to about 30 million people and renowned for its unique biodiversity and status as the world’s leading vanilla producer, has a long and troubled history with coups and political crises since gaining independence from France in 1960. Rajoelina himself first came to power as a transitional leader after a 2009 military coup, before being elected president in 2018 and reelected in 2023. His recent attempt to appease protesters by firing his government did little to stem the tide of unrest.
The international response has been swift and unequivocal. On October 15, the African Union suspended Madagascar from all its bodies “until constitutional order is restored in the country,” a step it has previously taken with other member states following coups, such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea. The United Nations, for its part, expressed “deep concern by the unconstitutional change of power in Madagascar,” with Secretary General António Guterres urging all parties to “work together to reach a peaceful settlement to the ongoing crisis and its root causes,” according to spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the weeks and months ahead, Randrianirina has insisted that his authority to take over as president came at the invitation of the country’s High Constitutional Court, though some legal experts and Rajoelina’s supporters dispute this account. The colonel’s promise of elections within two years and a quick appointment of a new prime minister are being closely watched by both domestic and international observers, all of whom are anxious to see whether this latest chapter in Madagascar’s turbulent political history will lead to genuine reform or simply more of the same.
For now, the mood in Antananarivo is a mix of hope, wariness, and resolve. The youth-led movement that sparked the upheaval has made its voice heard, but the path to stability remains uncertain. As one protester put it, “We must always be wary, but the current state of affairs gives us reason to be confident.” The world, too, is watching closely, as Madagascar stands at a crossroads—caught between the promise of renewal and the shadow of its tumultuous past.