In a dramatic turn of events, Madagascar has become the latest African nation to experience a military coup, thrusting the island country into political turmoil and raising questions about the continent’s persistent “coup trap.” The takeover, which unfolded in October 2025, saw President Andry Rajoelina ousted and forced to flee, while Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT military unit, stepped forward to claim interim leadership. The sequence of events, marked by youth-led protests, military defection, and constitutional crisis, has gripped the nation and drawn international attention to the broader patterns of instability across Africa.
The unrest began on September 25, 2025, when thousands of young people took to the streets of Antananarivo and other major cities, protesting chronic water and power outages. These demonstrations, organized under the banner "Gen Z Madagascar," quickly snowballed, with their Facebook page amassing more than 100,000 followers in days. The government’s response was swift and severe: security forces cracked down with tear gas and rubber bullets, and nighttime curfews were imposed across urban centers. The United Nations later reported that at least 22 people were killed in these early days, attributing the violence to the heavy-handed tactics of security forces (according to the Associated Press).
President Rajoelina, facing mounting pressure, dissolved his government on September 29, firing his prime minister and the entire Cabinet in hopes of quelling the unrest. He acknowledged the grievances of the youth but failed to stem the tide of anger, which soon expanded to include frustration over the cost of living, job scarcity, and widespread allegations of corruption and nepotism among the elite. When Rajoelina offered dialogue on October 8, protesters rejected the overture, stating they would not meet with a government that "kills its people." Instead, they called for the demonstrations to continue.
The pivotal moment arrived on October 11, when an elite military unit led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina openly rebelled against Rajoelina, siding with the protesters. As armored vehicles rolled into a central square in Antananarivo—historically a site of political upheaval—the soldiers declared their refusal to suppress the protests and called for the president’s resignation. Rajoelina, whose whereabouts were unknown at the time, remained silent as the momentum shifted decisively against him.
By October 12, Randrianirina had asserted control over the armed forces and appointed a new general, a move accepted by the defense minister and signaling the military’s consolidation of power. The next day, Rajoelina surfaced via social media, revealing he had fled Madagascar after being warned of an assassination plot. He insisted that the constitution be respected and claimed he was still the country’s legitimate leader, but did not disclose his location.
Events reached a fever pitch on October 14. From his undisclosed location, Rajoelina issued a decree dissolving parliament in a last-ditch attempt to prevent impeachment, but lawmakers pressed on and voted overwhelmingly to remove him from office. Immediately after the vote, Randrianirina appeared with fellow soldiers at a symbolic presidential palace and announced the formation of a military council, which would govern for at least 18 months before organizing new elections. The colonel declared he would assume the presidency and later confirmed he would be sworn in on October 17 at the High Constitutional Court.
In the aftermath, Rajoelina provided further details to the AFP news agency, stating he had left Madagascar between October 11 and 12 due to "explicit and extremely serious threats" against his life. He was reportedly evacuated aboard a French military plane and later said he was in a "safe place," though he gave no indication of returning to the country. Despite his absence, Rajoelina refused to renounce his presidency, accusing the National Assembly of colluding with Randrianirina in the coup.
Randrianirina, for his part, announced the dissolution of all state institutions except the National Assembly and outlined plans for a transitional government that could last up to two years before new elections. According to Al Jazeera, he declared, "Colonel Michael Randrianirina will be sworn in as the President for the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar during a formal hearing." The move has deepened the constitutional crisis, especially after the African Union (AU) responded by suspending Madagascar’s membership and calling for a return to civilian governance. The AU’s decision, while largely symbolic, could further isolate the new military regime.
The events in Madagascar are not occurring in a vacuum. According to The Conversation, the same CAPSAT military unit that now turned against Rajoelina had, ironically, helped bring him to power in a 2009 coup. Since 2020, Africa has witnessed 10 successful coups in eight countries, but Madagascar’s marks only the second outside the Sahel region, signaling the spread of instability beyond its traditional hotspots. Scholars and analysts point to a combination of factors fueling this trend: persistent poverty, high ethnic diversity and exclusion, declining trust in institutions, the rise of terrorism, and waning international pressure for democratic restoration.
Data compiled by researchers, including those behind the Colpus Dataset of coup types, show that coups like Madagascar’s are most likely to succeed when led by insiders—senior military officers and government elites—in the capital, when they are relatively nonviolent, and when they enjoy mass mobilization in support. Madagascar’s coup checked all these boxes: government insiders led the charge, violence was limited, and the protests had broad popular backing. In fact, coups that avoid large-scale violence have an 85% success rate, while those that devolve into civil war rarely succeed.
Another troubling aspect is the resilience of post-coup governments in Africa. With anti-coup norms weakening and support from authoritarian patrons such as Russia and China, military regimes are staying in power longer and are less susceptible to external sanctions. This emboldens would-be coup plotters elsewhere on the continent, perpetuating what some have called Africa’s “coup contagion.” As The Conversation notes, "even if there are limits to Africa’s ‘coup contagion,’ Madagascar likely won’t be the last domino to fall, given structural conditions on the continent."
For Madagascar, the immediate future is fraught with uncertainty. The new military leadership faces the daunting task of restoring order, addressing the grievances that sparked the uprising, and navigating international isolation. Meanwhile, ordinary Madagascans—many of whom joined the Gen Z-led protests simply seeking reliable electricity and water—wait anxiously to see whether the promised transition will deliver the stability and reforms they demand, or whether the cycle of coups and crises will continue to haunt their nation.