In a dramatic turn of events that has gripped Madagascar, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, the leader of a military coup, has declared himself the country’s new president, promising a transitional period of military rule before fresh elections are held. The announcement follows weeks of swelling youth-led protests and the sudden flight of President Andry Rajoelina, marking yet another chapter of political turmoil for the Indian Ocean nation.
Speaking to the Associated Press on October 15, 2025, Randrianirina stated unequivocally, “We are staying here for at least 18 months, at most two years.” According to Reuters, he added, “We will be sworn in soon,” confirming that he expects to take the presidential oath within days. The colonel, flanked by fellow officers at his barracks, outlined that the armed forces would oversee the country during this transitional period, after which elections would be organized to restore civilian rule.
The coup, which unfolded on October 14, 2025, came as the culmination of weeks of unrest driven by youth groups calling themselves “Gen Z Madagascar.” These demonstrators, joined by labor unions and civic organizations, took to the streets of Antananarivo and other major cities, protesting chronic water and electricity shortages, limited access to education, rampant government corruption, and widespread poverty. According to the World Bank, roughly three out of every four Madagascans live in poverty—a staggering statistic for a country of about 30 million people, renowned as the world’s leading vanilla producer.
The movement gained momentum as demonstrators demanded better governance and economic opportunities. Their grievances echoed those of youth-led protests seen in other parts of the world, but in Madagascar, the situation quickly escalated. The United Nations reported that a crackdown by security forces before the coup resulted in at least 22 deaths and more than 100 injuries. The government disputed these figures, but the violence only fueled public outrage and the resolve of the protesters.
As the protests intensified, Randrianirina and his elite CAPSAT unit made a pivotal decision on Saturday, siding with the demonstrators and urging other soldiers not to fire on the crowds. This move effectively sealed the fate of President Rajoelina, who, according to Reuters, fled Madagascar on October 12 aboard a French military plane. Diplomatic and opposition sources suggest he is now in Dubai, having left the country in fear for his life.
Rajoelina’s departure was followed by his impeachment by lawmakers, though he has refused to formally step down and has condemned the military takeover as an illegal coup. From exile, he has rejected the legitimacy of Randrianirina’s new regime, while his office has claimed that some judges from the High Constitutional Court—the body that purportedly invited Randrianirina to assume the presidency—were threatened into compliance. Randrianirina has pushed back against these allegations, telling the Associated Press, “What is he saying is illegal? We have an order from the High Constitutional Court. We did not force the HCC or point a gun at it to issue this.”
Yet, the legal and constitutional standing of the new regime remains murky. While Randrianirina insists that the court invited him to take over in the absence of Rajoelina, the military council has simultaneously suspended the powers of the very same court. In a press briefing reported by Reuters, Randrianirina announced that the military had dissolved all institutions except the lower house of parliament and that a committee led by the armed forces would govern for up to two years alongside a transitional government.
For many Madagascans, the military’s intervention was met with a mix of hope and caution. Protesters cheered soldiers as they rode triumphantly through Antananarivo, with one protest leader, Safika, telling the Associated Press, “The military is listening to us. We must always be wary, but the current state of affairs gives us reason to be confident.” The sense of relief was palpable among those who had grown weary of government inaction and repression, but memories of past coups and broken promises lingered in the background.
Madagascar’s history is punctuated by political upheaval and military interventions. Since gaining independence from France in 1960, the country has experienced several coups and attempted coups. Rajoelina himself came to power as a transitional leader following a military-led coup in 2009, riding a wave of youth support and pledging to improve living standards and root out corruption. However, as Reuters notes, these promises were never fully realized. Between 1960 and 2020, Madagascar’s GDP per capita plunged by 45%, and the country’s ranking on Transparency International’s corruption index fell from 118th to 140th.
Randrianirina’s own journey to power is emblematic of the country’s turbulent politics. As a commander in the CAPSAT unit, he played a key role in the 2009 coup that elevated Rajoelina. More recently, he became a vocal critic of the president and was arrested in November 2023 on suspicion of instigating an army mutiny. He was charged, brought before court, and sent to prison all on the same day, but was released in February 2024 with a suspended sentence and returned to his unit, according to CBC.
International reaction to the latest coup has so far been muted. The African Union called an emergency meeting of its security council but stopped short of issuing a strong condemnation. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country has longstanding ties to its former colony, expressed “deep concern” and affirmed France’s “friendship with the Madagascar people,” as reported by CBC, but declined to confirm whether French authorities had assisted Rajoelina’s escape.
Some analysts have voiced strong criticism of the military’s actions. Olufemi Taiwo, professor of Africana studies at Cornell University, told the Associated Press, “Gen-Zers in Madagascar have been on the streets of the country protesting the lack of essential services, especially water and electricity, and the negative impact on their lives for almost a month. This is a civil society uprising and its resolution should not involve the military.” Taiwo called on the African Union to condemn “another coup” that Africa “does not need,” and argued that no country should recognize the new military leadership.
Within Madagascar, the immediate future remains uncertain. Randrianirina has pledged to accelerate the appointment of a new prime minister to help end the crisis but has not provided a specific timeline. “What I can say is that we are already accelerating it so that the crisis in the country does not last forever,” he told CBC. For now, the streets of Antananarivo are quiet but tense, with many citizens wary of what the next two years of military rule will bring.
As the world watches, Madagascar stands at a crossroads—caught between the hope for genuine reform and the shadow of its troubled past. Whether the military’s promises will translate into meaningful change remains to be seen, but for the country’s restless youth and weary citizens, the stakes could hardly be higher.