In a dramatic turn of events at the United Nations General Assembly in New York City on September 23, 2025, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and former U.S. President Donald Trump shared a brief but surprisingly cordial exchange that has sent ripples through diplomatic, political, and economic circles on both sides of the equator. The encounter, which comes after months of mounting trade tensions and political upheaval in Brazil, may signal the beginning of a thaw in U.S.-Brazil relations that have reached their lowest point in two centuries, according to analysts and officials cited by the Associated Press.
The backdrop to this moment is nothing short of extraordinary. Just months prior, in July 2025, the Trump administration imposed a sweeping 50% tariff on a wide range of Brazilian exports. The move was justified, according to Trump, by what he described as the "alleged persecution" of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro—who, in a stunning development, had been sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup to stay in power after his defeat in the 2022 election. As reported by TIME Magazine, Bolsonaro’s conviction was the result of a robust assertion of judicial power by Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court and Superior Electoral Court, institutions that have shown what Omar G. Encarnación described as "extraordinary independence in the pursuit of accountability."
For months, this punitive tariff roiled the Brazilian economy and soured relations between the two nations. It also became a wedge issue in Brazilian politics, with Lula’s critics accusing him of failing to leverage diplomatic channels to protect national interests. Yet, in a twist, Lula’s polling numbers began to rise, buoyed by a nationalistic tone and his defense of Brazil’s sovereignty—especially as he took the world stage at the UN to criticize what he called the "unilateral moves" of the U.S. government. According to the Associated Press, Lula’s fiery speech was followed by the unexpected embrace and conversation with Trump, a moment that seemed to catch both leaders—and their entourages—off guard.
"He seemed like a very nice man, actually," Trump reflected after the encounter. "He liked me, I liked him." The remark, as reported by AP, triggered celebrations among Lula’s allies and even won over some moderate politicians who had previously been critical of the Brazilian president. Former Brazilian Foreign Minister Aloysio Nunes, a center-right figure often at odds with Lula, called the event "a major win for the Brazilian president if it indeed helps to repair relations with the U.S. at their worst moment in two centuries." Nunes added, "Trump didn’t really know Lula and he was poisoned against him by Bolsonaro allies. Under these conditions, a personal contact between the two presidents is very positive. That’s what can really kick off preparations for a real negotiation between them."
The meeting was not just a product of chance or diplomatic choreography. Behind the scenes, major Brazilian business leaders had been working tirelessly to bridge the gap between the two administrations. According to reporting from Brazilian media, companies like Embraer and JBS lobbied within the Republican administration, arguing that the tariffs were hurting American consumers by raising prices on staples like coffee and meat. They also warned that the punitive measures risked politically strengthening Lula, rather than isolating him. In the week of September 11, 2025, influential businessmen such as Joesley Batista, João Camargo, and Carlos Sanchez traveled to Washington to meet with members of Congress, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and the Department of Commerce, seeking to expand communication channels and advocate for a more pragmatic approach.
Their efforts appeared to bear fruit. On September 22, Trump announced new sanctions against certain Brazilian authorities but notably stopped short of imposing additional tariffs. This move was interpreted as a signal that the administration was open to dialogue and negotiation, especially as direct talks between Lula and Trump were scheduled for the week following their UN encounter. The expectation, according to business and political sources, is that these talks could reopen negotiations on the 50% tariff hike and potentially lead to a more stable trade relationship.
The political reverberations in Brazil were immediate. Many Bolsonaro supporters, who had previously claimed Trump as an unequivocal ally, were left uncharacteristically silent or sought to downplay the significance of the Lula-Trump encounter. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son and a lawmaker who had moved to the U.S. in March to lobby on his father’s behalf, insisted that Trump’s approach was simply another example of his negotiating prowess: "Far from causing astonishment, his stance reaffirms, once again, (Trump’s) genius as a negotiator," Eduardo Bolsonaro said on X, formerly Twitter.
Meanwhile, the political winds in Brazil shifted further. On September 24, São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a pro-Bolsonaro presidential hopeful, abandoned his earlier position blaming Lula for the tariff crisis. "(Trump) needs to negotiate, Lula needs to negotiate," de Freitas told journalists. "This situation is bad for Brazil and bad for the U.S. too. At some point there needs to be a convergence." Even Hugo Motta, the speaker of Brazil’s lower house, moved to open proceedings that could cost Eduardo Bolsonaro his seat due to prolonged absence, signaling a broader recalibration within the political establishment.
For Lula, the diplomatic win could not have come at a better time. As Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, told the Associated Press, "It is possible that… they see that the tariffs and other measures seem to have strengthened Lula, damaged some U.S. companies and not helped former President Bolsonaro and his legal case." Lula himself struck a measured tone in New York, telling journalists that a formal meeting with Trump "doesn’t need to happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow." Reflecting on the encounter, he said, "I was surprised indeed. I was going to get my papers and leave, then Trump came to my side. A very friendly face, very nice, you know? I think there was some chemistry indeed."
Analysts like Omar G. Encarnación have pointed out that the current moment in Brazil is the product of a complex interplay of legal, political, and societal forces. "No single factor accounts for Bolsonaro’s successful prosecution," Encarnación wrote for TIME Magazine. "Instead, there’s a mingling of legal, political, and societal factors. The main one is the assertion of judicial power by the Federal Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral Court. In the Bolsonaro era, these institutions have shown extraordinary independence in the pursuit of accountability." This assertion of judicial independence has not only reshaped Brazil’s internal political landscape but also influenced its standing on the international stage, impacting relations with key partners like the United States.
As Lula and Trump prepare for further negotiations in the coming week, the stakes could not be higher. The outcome will affect not just tariffs and trade, but also the broader trajectory of democracy and accountability in Brazil. For now, the world watches as two of the hemisphere’s most colorful—and controversial—leaders test whether personal rapport can overcome months of rancor and reshape the future of U.S.-Brazilian relations.