On September 23, 2025, the hacker collective known as Black Moon sent shockwaves through international security circles by releasing a trove of leaked documents that, according to their analysis, expose a deepening military partnership between Russia and China. The documents, which Black Moon shared via the social network X, suggest that Moscow is actively helping Beijing train and equip its forces for a possible future invasion of Taiwan—a scenario that has long been a source of anxiety for global powers, but now appears to be taking on new urgency and specificity.
The leaked materials, as reported by Telegrafi, include detailed assessments by experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a respected British defense think tank. RUSI’s analysis, included in the so-called “RUSSIA” report, predicts that the Russian-Chinese joint project could be aimed at enabling an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. While the Chinese military is, in some respects, considered more technologically advanced than its Russian counterpart, RUSI notes that Beijing still lacks critical experience and capabilities in large-scale air maneuvers—skills essential for mounting a successful amphibious or airborne assault on Taiwan. This gap, the documents suggest, is precisely where Russian assistance becomes pivotal.
According to the leaked files, Russia began, in 2023, committing to supply China with advanced weaponry and military technologies. These include 37 light amphibious vehicles equipped with automatic weapons, 11 light amphibious anti-tank vehicles, 11 airborne tracked armored personnel carriers, and an unspecified number of command and surveillance vehicles. The intention, according to RUSI’s analysis, is to help China form new air battalions and ramp up its domestic military production capabilities—key steps in preparing for a complex military operation across the Taiwan Strait.
Black Moon’s ongoing publication of what it calls the “Russian-Chinese project ‘Sword 208’” has provided a rare glimpse into the scale and ambition of this partnership. In their own words, the group announced, “The publication of materials obtained by our hackers from the Russian-Chinese project 'Sword 208' is coming to an end. Today, we are posting the tenth package on our account, which contains the most valuable and important information about the automated system developed by the…” The full details of this “automated system” remain unclear, but security analysts believe it likely refers to command-and-control technologies or battlefield management systems—capabilities that could tip the scales in a high-stakes conflict over Taiwan.
These revelations come at a time of heightened tension and shifting alliances in the region. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the resulting isolation from Western nations, Moscow has turned increasingly toward Beijing—not just as a trading partner, but as a collaborator in military and strategic affairs. According to Telegrafi, this cooperation has grown much more extensive than most governments have publicly acknowledged. An anonymous security official from Taiwan was quoted as saying that the military ties between China and Russia “are much more extensive than has been publicly acknowledged.”
This burgeoning partnership was on full display in early September 2025, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stood alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping at a major military parade in Beijing. The event, which marked the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II, was both a show of military might and a symbolic gesture of unity among countries increasingly at odds with the West.
While China has officially maintained a stance of neutrality regarding Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, its actions tell a more complicated story. According to Telegrafi, Beijing has indirectly supported Moscow through the trade of dual-use products—goods that have both civilian and military applications. This quiet support has allowed Russia to circumvent some Western sanctions and sustain its war effort, while also fostering deeper technological and logistical cooperation between the two powers.
The implications for Taiwan are profound. On September 27, 2025, further reports surfaced indicating that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to “militarily take control of Taiwan by 2027.” According to these reports, the PLA is not only building up its arsenal but also actively studying the operational challenges involved in such a campaign. The most daunting of these is the difficulty of staging a large-scale amphibious assault on Taiwan’s rugged coastline. Most of the island’s beaches have steep gradients and low load-bearing capacity, making them unsuitable for landing heavy military equipment or massed troops.
As detailed in the recent analysis, the PLA has been exploring alternative strategies to overcome these obstacles. One option is to seize airfields on the island, which could then be used to deploy airborne troops. However, lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine loom large: Ukrainian forces demonstrated how quickly runways can be rendered inoperable, complicating any plans for rapid airborne reinforcement. Consequently, the PLA is reportedly diversifying its invasion planning, considering a range of methods and potential landing sites to maximize its operational flexibility and reduce its vulnerability to counterattacks.
Behind these tactical deliberations lies a broader strategic calculus. With Russia’s direct experience in air-to-air operations and large-scale military campaigns, Beijing appears eager to absorb lessons from its northern neighbor. As Telegrafi notes, “the Kremlin has further experience in air-to-air operations that Beijing does not fully possess.” By leveraging Russian expertise and hardware, China hopes to close the gap in its own military capabilities, particularly in areas critical to a cross-strait offensive.
The international community is watching these developments with a mix of alarm and skepticism. While some analysts caution against overestimating the immediate threat—pointing out that even with Russian assistance, China faces enormous logistical, operational, and political hurdles—others warn that the unprecedented level of military cooperation between two of the world’s most powerful authoritarian regimes could reshape the security landscape of East Asia.
For Taiwan, the stakes could hardly be higher. The island’s government has long prepared for the possibility of a Chinese invasion, but the prospect of facing a combined Russian-Chinese effort introduces new complexities. The Taiwanese military is reportedly adapting its own strategies, learning from the experiences of Ukraine and seeking support from Western allies. Meanwhile, the United States and its partners in the region are likely to view these revelations as a call to bolster deterrence and deepen their own security commitments.
As the world digests the contents of the Black Moon leaks and the implications of Xi Jinping’s 2027 directive, one thing is clear: the delicate balance of power in the Taiwan Strait is entering a new and more perilous phase. With old alliances shifting and new threats emerging, the next two years will test the resolve and ingenuity of leaders on all sides.