As the 2026 midterm congressional elections loom in New Jersey, the state finds itself at the epicenter of a shifting political landscape—one shaped in no small part by the evolving priorities and allegiances of Latino voters. The significance of this growing electorate became unmistakably clear during the November 2025 elections, when Latinos played a pivotal role in swinging key races toward the Democrats, both in New Jersey and Virginia. The repercussions of those results are already reverberating through campaign headquarters and party strategy sessions, as candidates gear up for what is expected to be a fiercely contested midterm season.
According to CBS News, 68% of Latino voters in New Jersey supported Democrat Mikie Sherrill in 2025, a figure that not only underscores the bloc’s influence but also marks a dramatic reversal from trends seen just a year earlier. In fact, Sherrill managed to flip 18% of Latino voters who had previously supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. This swing is more than just a statistical curiosity; it signals a deeper, more nuanced shift in the priorities and expectations of Latino communities across the state.
Virginia, too, bore witness to this transformation. Data from NBC News revealed that 67% of Latinos voted for Democrat Abigail Spanberger, helping Democrats make significant gains in Manassas and Manassas Park—two counties where Latinos make up more than 40% of the population. These victories didn’t come out of nowhere. As Clarissa Martínez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative at UnidosUS, put it, “I often like to say that Latino voters are ni muy muy, ni tan tan, meaning they are not on the extremes, right? There’s always been a swing element to the Hispanic vote. You can call it swing. You can call it ticket splitting, where they may vote for the candidate of one party in one race and the candidate of another party in another race. And that has to do with not being in the extremes.”
This unpredictability has forced both parties to rethink their outreach strategies. Republicans, who saw notable gains among Latino voters in 2024, are now recalibrating. As GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a Latino lawmaker from Arizona, told NOTUS, “We have to be in the addition business, not in the subtraction or division business, if we want to win elections. That will be the recipe for success here.” His words echo a broader realization within the party: winning over Latino voters will require more than rhetoric; it will demand tangible policy shifts and a willingness to engage on the issues that matter most to this diverse community.
On the Democratic side, the mood is cautiously optimistic. Many see the 2025 results as a referendum on Donald Trump’s immigration policies and his administration’s approach to affordability—two issues that have consistently ranked at the top of Latino voters’ concerns. California Sen. Alex Padilla summed up the sentiment, stating, “A couple Tuesdays ago was just the latest reminder you can not, should not, take Latino voters for granted. Every two years the biggest question is, what about the Latino vote?” Padilla emphasized that economic anxiety and immigration enforcement remain the decisive issues for Latino voters heading into the 2026 midterms. “I think Latinos are once again open to the Democratic case and argument for the midterms, but it’s not going to come our way automatically,” he explained. “Trump spoke to them with a bunch of promises, and not only has he not made good on those promises, he’s made the situation worse.”
The focus on affordability is not just campaign sloganeering. An ABC News exit poll from Virginia found that about half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the state. This sentiment was echoed by Sen. Andy Kim, a Democrat from New Jersey, who told NOTUS, “What we saw was a lot of Latino voters in 2024 frustrated in New Jersey about the high cost. There were a number of issues that just felt like things weren’t working, and especially under Democratic leadership in the state. And the messaging about affordability that Trump was trying to push at the time was attractive, but the tariffs have been devastating.” Kim added that New Jersey voters turned out in response to Trump’s failure to deliver on his campaign promises. “The understanding that Trump not only hasn’t done really anything on affordability, in fact, has made things worse, was what I just kept hearing from the Latino community over the last couple weeks, leading to the election in New Jersey, which really showed that switch,” he said.
As the 2026 midterms approach, Democrats are determined to capitalize on these gains. Nedia Morsy, executive director of Make the Road New Jersey, observed, “Latino voters have actually been incredibly consistent about what their needs and their concerns are. I really do believe that what we are witnessing is Latino voters responding in real time to the identity crisis that parties are experiencing and the realignments that they’re sort of sifting through—but Latino voters have remained consistent.”
Yet, the story is far from over. The unpredictability of the Latino electorate—its willingness to swing, to split tickets, and to prioritize issues over party loyalty—means that neither party can rest easy. The upcoming 2026 congressional races in New Jersey will test just how durable these recent Democratic gains are, and whether Republicans can adapt quickly enough to win back the trust of a constituency that has become indispensable to victory in statewide and national contests.
While no specific candidate names have yet emerged from the current reporting, the stakes are clear. Both parties are scrambling to recruit contenders who can resonate with Latino voters and address their core concerns. Economic anxiety and immigration enforcement are expected to dominate campaign messaging, while candidates will likely be pressed to articulate concrete plans for making life more affordable and fair for working families.
For Latino voters themselves, the message is unmistakable: their votes are in demand, their voices are being heard, and their priorities could very well decide the outcome of the 2026 midterms—not just in New Jersey, but across the country. As party operatives and candidates alike are discovering, the days of taking any demographic for granted are long gone. The coming year will reveal whether Democrats can hold on to their recent gains, or if Republicans can engineer a comeback by listening more closely and delivering on the promises that matter most.
In this new era of political realignment, the Latino electorate is proving itself to be both a bellwether and a kingmaker. As the 2026 midterms draw closer, all eyes will be on New Jersey—and on the voters whose choices could tip the balance of power in Congress.
