As the winter of 2025 barrels forward, communities along the Great Lakes are bracing for a surge of dangerous lakeshore flooding, with the National Weather Service issuing a series of urgent warnings for counties in Michigan and New York. The warnings, released in the early hours of Sunday, December 28, 2025, signal a period of heightened risk starting Monday and stretching into Tuesday, threatening lives, property, and infrastructure from Marquette and Alger counties on Lake Superior to Erie, Niagara, and Chautauqua counties along Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River.
At 3:07 a.m. EST on Sunday, the National Weather Service updated its lakeshore flood warning for Marquette and Alger counties, valid from Monday, December 29, 2025, at 1 a.m. until Tuesday, December 30, at 1 a.m. According to the Service, "Significant lakeshore flooding expected." The warning paints a stark picture: "Numerous roads closed and low-lying property including parking lots, lawns, and homes and businesses will be inundated near the lake. Some shoreline erosion will occur." The message is clear—residents and travelers must prepare for major disruptions and potential hazards, with the Service urging, "If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property."
Meanwhile, communities to the east are facing a similar threat. At 1:50 a.m., the National Weather Service issued a lakeshore flood warning for Erie and Chautauqua counties, valid Monday from 5 a.m. to 10 p.m. The warning was echoed and expanded upon at 9:27 a.m. with an updated alert for Northern Erie, Southern Erie, Niagara, and Chautauqua counties, covering the same Monday time frame. The urgency was palpable in the language used: "Significant lakeshore flooding expected. Rapid rises are expected Monday morning with the highest levels late Monday morning and afternoon."
According to the Service, "The rapid rise in water levels will result in lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie and Upper Niagara River shores. Along the Lake Erie shore, flooding is likely along Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor and Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor, and other flood-prone locations." On the Upper Niagara River, Grand Island and Cayuga Island are also in the crosshairs. The warning further cautions, "A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring, is imminent, or is expected to occur. For your safety, stay off breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings and beaches! Waves are often larger than they appear and can easily wash you away. Expect significant beach erosion and debris, local road closures and extremely dangerous boating conditions."
For residents of these regions, the difference between advisories, watches, and warnings is more than just semantics—it’s a matter of preparedness and survival. The National Weather Service breaks it down: a "flash flood warning" means take action immediately, as a sudden, violent flood is imminent or occurring. A "flood warning" signals that flooding is either about to happen or already underway. A "flood advisory" is a heads-up that while flooding may not reach warning levels, it can still cause significant inconvenience and, if caution is not exercised, endanger life and property. A "flood watch" tells residents to be prepared, as conditions are favorable for flooding, even if it isn’t guaranteed.
The warnings come with a set of time-tested safety guidelines, which the Service urges all residents and visitors to follow. First and foremost: seek higher ground. Whether you live in a flood-prone area or are simply camping in a low-lying spot, moving to higher ground is the first step to safety. Should local authorities issue an evacuation order, comply promptly and secure your home before leaving. If there’s time, disconnect utilities and appliances to reduce the risk of electrical hazards. The Service is blunt about the dangers of flooded basements and submerged areas: avoid them at all costs, especially if electrical outlets or cords are involved. If you notice sparks or hear buzzing, crackling, snapping, or popping noises, evacuate immediately—these are signs of imminent electrical danger.
One of the most repeated pieces of advice is deceptively simple: never attempt to walk through floodwaters. As little as six inches of swiftly moving water can knock a person off their feet, and twelve inches—just one foot—of rapidly flowing water can carry away most vehicles, including SUVs and pickups. The Service warns, "Never attempt to drive through water on the road, even if it appears shallow." It’s a message that bears repeating, as every year, emergency responders are called to rescue drivers who underestimated the power of moving water.
The risks extend beyond the obvious. The warnings specifically advise staying off breakwaters, piers, rock outcroppings, and beaches—not just because of the flooding, but due to the unpredictable and often larger-than-expected waves that can sweep people into the lake or river with little warning. Dangerous boating conditions are expected as well, with significant beach erosion and debris likely to complicate recovery efforts once the waters recede.
For those living along the affected shores, the threat is not new, but the timing and severity of the warnings have heightened anxiety. Areas like Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor and Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor, and the islands of the Upper Niagara River have experienced flooding before, but the rapid rise in water levels forecast for Monday is raising new concerns about the resilience of local infrastructure and the safety of residents. Shoreline erosion, in particular, poses a long-term risk, as it can undermine roads, destabilize homes, and alter the landscape in ways that make future flooding even more likely.
Officials are urging everyone in the warning zones to stay informed, follow local news and weather updates, and avoid unnecessary travel—especially in the early hours of Monday when conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly. The National Weather Service’s advice is unequivocal: "Stay safe by being prepared and informed."
As communities from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to western New York hunker down, the coming hours will test not only their preparedness but also the strength of their emergency response systems. For now, the best way to weather the storm is to heed the warnings, respect the power of nature, and remember that sometimes, the safest place is simply higher ground.
