On January 6, 2026, the mood in Westminster was anything but festive for Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour government. A new YouGov poll, published by Sky and The Times, delivered a sobering message: Labour had slipped to third place in national voting intentions, trailing both the surging Reform UK and the resurgent Conservatives. The numbers were stark—Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, climbed to 26%, up a point from the previous week. The Conservatives held steady at 19%, but Labour tumbled three points to 17%, its lowest share since the landslide general election victory 18 months ago and matching a previous low from October 2025. The Liberal Democrats and Greens were nipping at Labour’s heels, polling at 16% and 15% respectively. In a twist, four of the five main parties were now separated by just four points, making the political landscape more competitive than it has been in years.
For Sir Keir, the timing couldn’t have been worse. He was opening his first cabinet meeting of the year at Downing Street, appealing for unity and discipline amid persistent rumors that his leadership was on the brink. According to The Independent, speculation was rife among Labour MPs about a possible leadership challenge, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner all rumored as potential successors. Reports suggested that Scottish Labour MPs were particularly anxious, urging Streeting to step up in order to avoid a disastrous showing in the crucial May elections across England, Scotland, and Wales.
Streeting, for his part, was quick to tamp down the rumors. Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, he insisted, "I’m certainly not talking about it [leadership speculation]." But the denials did little to quell the chatter in Westminster’s corridors. The sense of unease was palpable as Labour’s polling woes deepened, with backbenchers openly questioning Starmer’s direction and values. Labour MP Jon Trickett, speaking to Times Radio, did not mince words: "I don’t know but I sometime ago came to the view that Keir Starmer doesn’t represent the Labour values that I believe in. And I feel that more and more people are coming to that view." Trickett’s criticism extended beyond party lines, as he added, "I think the British people don’t want to be a poodle for any government, even Washington, which have been allies as we know for many many years – and especially not for the current president who appears to be on a track which no other president or prime minister in Britain would ever have followed." His remarks reflected a growing discomfort within Labour ranks over Starmer’s reluctance to criticize the United States for its military actions in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolas Maduro.
Despite the storm clouds, Starmer tried to steady the ship. At the cabinet meeting—attended by new deputy leader Lucy Powell and general secretary Hollie Ridley—he urged his top team to focus on the bread-and-butter issues facing British households. "Yes, there’s a world of uncertainty and upheaval, but tackling the cost of living remains and must remain our focus," he told ministers, according to The Independent. He highlighted a series of government measures intended to ease the financial squeeze: increases in the minimum wage, reductions in Bank of England interest rates, and targeted help with energy bills. Starmer was adamant that these policies were making a real difference, even as public confidence appeared to be waning.
He reminded his cabinet that centre-left parties in Norway, Australia, and Canada had managed to stage successful political recoveries by focusing relentlessly on delivery and cost-of-living issues. The message was clear: results, not rhetoric, would determine Labour’s fate in the tough elections looming in May. "This will be an important year as we show that renewal is becoming reality and that Britain is turning the corner. Getting our country back on track is hard, difficult work and we will reject the politics of easy answers and gimmicks that, frankly, got us here in the first place," Starmer declared, sounding both defiant and determined.
But the challenges for Labour go well beyond the domestic arena. The political cabinet meeting took place as former U.S. President Donald Trump and the United States continued to threaten to annex Greenland, a move that has rattled European allies. Starmer was preparing to join world leaders in Paris for a meeting of Ukraine’s allies, underscoring the international pressures facing his administration. Yet, he insisted that the government’s core mission must remain focused on the home front: "At the next general election we will be judged on whether we’ve delivered on things that really matter – do people feel better off, are public services improving, for which they will look to the NHS, and do people feel more safe and secure in their own community. They are the issues we will be judged on at the next general election, that is our focus. That will require hard work, focus and determination from all of us. Together, as a team, we will rise to that challenge and deliver for the whole country."
Starmer also sought to frame the political contest in stark terms, drawing a clear line between his vision for Labour and the message of Reform UK. "A Labour government renewing the country or a Reform movement that feeds on grievance, decline and division. They want a weaker state, they want to inject bile into our communities, they want to appease Putin. This is the fight of our political lives and one that we must relish. I do not underestimate the scale of the task. But I have no doubt about this team. Governments do not lose because polls go down. They lose when they lose belief or nerve. We will do neither."
The stakes could hardly be higher. Labour has seen its support plummet since the 2024 general election landslide, with Reform UK enjoying consistent leads and eyeing breakthroughs in the upcoming English council and Welsh elections. In Scotland, the party faces a dual threat, as both Labour and Reform UK seek to unseat the Scottish National Party (SNP).
Yet, with no general election expected until 2029 unless the government calls a snap vote, the current turbulence in the polls is, for now, a warning rather than a verdict. The proximity of the parties in the polls—just four points separating first from fourth—means that British politics is entering a period of volatility and unpredictability not seen in decades.
For Starmer, the path forward is fraught with challenges both inside and outside his party. The coming months will test his leadership, his policies, and his ability to unite a fractious movement under pressure. But as the prime minister himself put it, "This will be an important year as we show that renewal is becoming reality and that Britain is turning the corner." Whether voters will agree remains the central question hanging over Labour’s future.
