As the dust settles from the largest set of local elections in the United Kingdom since July 2024, political analysts and party strategists are grappling with the implications of a turbulent day at the ballot box. On May 7, 2026, voters across England, Scotland, and Wales cast their ballots to fill more than 5,000 council seats, with the results promising to reshape the political landscape and signal deeper undercurrents ahead of the next general election.
At the center of the post-election analysis is the BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS), a statistical tool designed to estimate what the Great Britain share of the vote would have been if local elections had been held everywhere and all principal parties had contested every seat. According to the BBC, the PNS is based entirely on local election results in England, intentionally excluding the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales that were held on the same day. This year’s PNS, set for publication late on May 8, is expected to provide a crucial, if imperfect, snapshot of the state of party politics in England.
What makes the 2026 PNS especially notable is its methodological evolution. As explained by Professor John Curtice, Professor Stephen Fisher, and Patrick English in their BBC analysis, this year’s estimate benefits from the ability to aggregate local election results to exact parliamentary constituency boundaries in more places than before. This allows for more robust comparisons between the 2024 general election and the 2026 local elections, providing a firmer foundation for projecting party performance nationwide. For the first time, the PNS will also publish separate figures for Reform UK and the Green Party, reflecting the reality that both parties are now contesting nearly every seat in Britain.
But behind the statistical models and projected shares lies a more visceral political drama—one that polling experts and party insiders have not hesitated to call a potential calamity for the Labour Party. Speaking to The Independent, Professor John Curtice described the elections as a ‘remarkable calamity’ for both Labour and the Conservatives. The numbers back up his stark warning: Professor Fisher’s research suggests Labour could lose around 1,900 councillors—about 74% of the seats it is defending. If borne out, this would mark the worst local election result for any sitting prime minister on record.
The Conservatives, too, are bracing for heavy losses, with projections indicating a drop of approximately 1,010 councillors. Yet the real story may be the surge of smaller parties. Reform UK is forecast to gain roughly 2,260 seats, more than tripling its local representation and breaking through in areas previously considered out of reach. The Green Party is expected to add about 450 councillors, while the Liberal Democrats are projected to gain around 200.
London, as ever, remains a crucial battleground. All 32 borough councils were up for grabs, and Labour’s control of 21 councils in the capital is under threat. According to YouGov polling cited by The Independent, the Green Party could top the vote share in at least four London councils, including Lewisham and Lambeth. Meanwhile, Reform UK is projected to lead the vote share in three London councils—a first for the party. Labour insiders, speaking anonymously, warned of a ‘bloodbath’ in Islington, while Green Party sources expressed confidence about taking Hackney.
The electoral drama is not confined to London. Cities such as Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle, and Wolverhampton also saw fierce contests. While Labour is likely to retain control in most urban councils, according to data from Britain Elects, there are notable exceptions. Councils including Wakefield, Sunderland, and Thurrock are seen as prime targets for Reform UK, with projections suggesting the party could either seize control outright or become the largest party without a majority.
Underlying these shifts is a significant movement of voters away from Labour—not towards the Conservatives, but towards the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK. As Curtice told The Independent, ‘The Labour vote is going first of all to the Greens; that’s the principal destination now of 2024 Labour voters who defect. And then there’s the Liberal Democrats and Reform. Virtually no one is going to the Tories.’ This trend is reinforced by the fact that Reform UK is fighting 99.9% of wards and the Greens are contesting 90%, signaling a new era of multi-party competition at the local level.
The PNS methodology itself has had to adapt to these changes. Traditionally, the PNS was calculated by modeling the change in party support in a sample of ‘key’ wards contested by the major parties in both the current and a previous baseline year. This approach allowed for a nationwide estimate of party performance, smoothing out the unrepresentative character of local elections, which often skew toward urban and Remain-voting areas. However, as Curtice, Fisher, and English note, the absence of general elections coinciding with local elections since 2015 has meant that recent PNS projections have been based on projections from projections—a statistical game of telephone that introduces its own uncertainties.
Last year, a limited comparison between the 2024 general election and the 2025 local elections provided some fresh data, but this year’s expanded ability to aggregate results by parliamentary constituency offers a more secure basis for the PNS. Even so, the proliferation of Green and Reform candidates presents new challenges. As the BBC analysis explains, Reform barely contested local elections in 2021 or 2022, so any comparison with those years overstates the party’s current momentum. For the Greens, a more limited historical presence complicates the modeling further. The PNS this year will thus derive estimates for these parties based on how the ‘Other’ vote is distributed in the growing number of wards both are contesting.
Leadership questions have also come to the fore. Curtice was blunt in his assessment of Labour’s leader, telling The Independent, ‘Starmer has never been a popular leader… he’s never been able to define what he is about and where he’s trying to take the country.’ In contrast, Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, is currently viewed as one of Labour’s most popular figures, topping YouGov’s rankings. Yet, as reported, Burnham was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election by Labour’s National Executive Committee—a move that has sparked fresh debate about the party’s direction and openness to internal dissent.
As for the broader implications, the 2026 local elections may well mark a turning point in British politics. The rise of Reform UK and the Greens, coupled with the apparent inability of the main parties to stem their losses, suggests a more fragmented and unpredictable political future. With the PNS set for release late Friday afternoon, analysts and party leaders alike will be poring over the numbers to discern what they mean for the next general election—and for the future of party politics in Britain.
One thing is certain: the message from the local ballot boxes this year is anything but straightforward. As the BBC’s analysts caution, ‘Any estimate of the party’s performances, including the PNS, will, in truth, be accompanied by more than the usual degree of uncertainty.’ With the ground shifting beneath their feet, Britain’s politicians face a new era of volatility—and voters, it seems, are determined to keep them guessing.