As the Philippines enters the final stretch of 2025, the nation finds itself bracing for a relentless onslaught of rain and storms, courtesy of a short-lived but potent La Niña episode. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) sounded the alarm on December 8, warning that above-normal rainfall is set to persist across many regions until at least February 2026. For millions of Filipinos, this means heightened vigilance against floods, landslides, and a host of other weather-related disruptions.
"The threat of high rainfall still remains, and our rain-bearing weather systems will be prevalent and experienced many times," explained Ana Liza Solis, Chief of Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, in a recent Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon interview. According to Pagasa, the current La Niña is expected to last no more than six months, but even within this brief window, its influence on local weather conditions will be substantial.
La Niña, the cooler sibling of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop below average. This cooling strengthens weather systems that funnel moisture toward the Philippines, setting the stage for heavier and more frequent rains. As Solis put it, "The shear line is very prevalent now." For a country already accustomed to tropical cyclones, this is no small matter.
The timeline of concern began back in August 2025, when Pagasa first issued a La Niña Watch. By September, the agency had upgraded the alert as conditions developed rapidly. Since then, the Philippines has been battered by a series of storms, including Typhoon Tino (international name: Kalmaegi) on November 4 and the formidable Super Typhoon Uwan (Fung-wong) on November 9. According to the South China Morning Post, satellite imagery from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration captured the menacing approach of Super Typhoon Fung-wong as it barreled toward the archipelago.
Pagasa’s records show that 23 tropical cyclones have entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in 2025—already surpassing the annual average of 19 to 20. And the year isn’t over yet; Solis noted that one more cyclone may still form before December draws to a close. The agency has identified several regions at elevated risk, including Western and Central Visayas, Metro Manila, Davao Region, and Caraga.
Why such an uptick in storm activity? Stronger easterlies, those persistent winds from the Pacific, are carrying warm, moisture-laden air toward the country. This influx feeds the development of convective systems, low-pressure areas, and, ultimately, more cyclones. Add to that the warmer waters near the Philippines, and you have a recipe for weather disturbances that can quickly spiral into disasters.
Pagasa has not minced words about the dangers ahead. The agency has urged local government units to work hand-in-hand with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), and other emergency response agencies to ensure communities are ready for whatever nature throws their way. Early warning systems, localized evacuation plans, and close monitoring of high-risk areas are now more crucial than ever.
"We have already recorded 23 tropical cyclones this year, above the annual average of 19 to 20. One more may still form before the year ends," Solis emphasized. The numbers alone tell a story of a nation under siege from the elements.
But the weather is just one piece of the puzzle. According to the South China Morning Post, the Philippines’ vulnerability to natural hazards is being compounded by factors like corruption, complacency, and the broader chaos wrought by climate change. These issues, the report argued, are turning what should be natural disasters into man-made tragedies. Floods and landslides, after all, don’t just happen because of rain—they’re often exacerbated by deforestation, poor urban planning, and inadequate infrastructure, all of which have roots in governance and policy.
For many communities, the threat is not abstract. In the wake of Typhoon Tino and Super Typhoon Uwan, residents in affected regions have had to contend with flooded homes, washed-out roads, and the ever-present fear of landslides. Metro Manila, with its dense population and aging drainage systems, remains particularly susceptible. Meanwhile, in the Visayas and Mindanao, rural villages perched on hillsides or along riverbanks face the double dangers of flash floods and soil erosion.
Pagasa’s warning is clear: persistent rains and frequent weather systems may continue to trigger hazards in already saturated communities nationwide. The agency has called on the public to stay alert and heed official advisories. While La Niña is expected to weaken by February 2026, there’s no sign yet of an immediate shift to El Niño, the warmer phase of the ENSO cycle. Instead, Pagasa is monitoring for an ENSO-neutral phase by early next year, which could bring a brief respite—though, as history shows, weather patterns in the Pacific are nothing if not unpredictable.
Preparation, then, is the order of the day. Local officials are being reminded to coordinate closely with disaster response agencies, update evacuation protocols, and ensure that relief supplies are ready. The lessons of past disasters—where delayed warnings or insufficient planning led to unnecessary suffering—are front of mind for many leaders. The hope is that early action can mitigate the worst impacts of the coming months.
Yet, as the South China Morning Post highlighted, systemic challenges remain. The interplay of climate chaos, governance failures, and rapid urbanization means that even the best-laid plans can fall short. It’s a sobering reality for a country that finds itself on the front lines of climate change, with little room for error.
Still, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Advances in weather forecasting, improved communication networks, and a growing culture of disaster preparedness have all helped reduce casualties in recent years. Pagasa’s real-time updates and the government’s push for community-based disaster risk management are steps in the right direction. But as Solis and her colleagues have made clear, the risks are far from over.
For now, Filipinos are being asked to stay vigilant, support one another, and trust in the warnings of their weather experts. With La Niña’s rains set to linger into early 2026, the coming months will test the resilience of communities, the effectiveness of government response, and the country’s ability to adapt to an ever-changing climate. The hope is that, with preparation and solidarity, the Philippines can weather the storm—literally and figuratively—until calmer days return.
