As winter deepens across Eastern Europe, the search for peace in Ukraine has entered its most perilous and high-stakes phase yet. On January 3, 2026, Kyiv hosted a landmark hybrid meeting of senior national security advisers—a first on Ukrainian soil since Russia’s full-scale invasion began nearly four years ago, as reported by Kyiv Post. The atmosphere was tense, with air-raid sirens sounding through the capital and nightly drone attacks a grim reminder that diplomacy is unfolding under fire.
Most European participants attended the talks in person, despite the threat of Russian bombardment, while U.S. officials joined via secure video link. The diplomatic tempo is quickening: additional sessions are planned in Paris and other European capitals in the coming days. According to Kyiv Post, the closer negotiators get to a possible peace deal, the higher the political and military stakes become. For Ukraine, Europe, and the United States, the outcome could define the continent’s security for decades to come.
Yet, even as the West projects unity, the path to peace remains fraught. Russian President Vladimir Putin, undeterred by military setbacks and economic pressure, continues to insist on maximalist demands in negotiations—a stance that has frustrated U.S. President Donald Trump and complicated efforts to broker an agreement, according to Politico. Despite ongoing losses on the battlefield, fuel shortages from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, and mounting internal economic strain, Putin remains unwavering. His approach, some in Trump’s inner circle fear, may be a calculated attempt to manipulate the diplomatic process and extract strategic advantage.
“I think he wants to make a deal with me. You get that? As crazy as it sounds,” Trump reportedly told French President Emmanuel Macron, as cited by Politico. The publication notes that Putin is adept at choosing politically opportune moments for outreach, such as a two-hour phone call with Trump just as the U.S. president was considering supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles. For Moscow, prolonging the war serves several purposes: it increases financial strain on European nations, risks undermining transatlantic unity, and diverts Western attention from other global challenges, including tensions over Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the war’s human toll continues to mount. In 2025, Russia advanced about 1% of Ukrainian territory—more than in the previous two years combined, according to The Independent. Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of 3,000 children and their parents from frontline regions, bringing the number of evacuees since June 1, 2025, to 150,000. The violence has not spared civilians: on January 1, 2026, Moscow claimed a Ukrainian drone strike killed 27 people, including two children, in a Russian-occupied village in Kherson. Kyiv, however, denied targeting civilians, insisting its forces “adhere to the norms of international humanitarian law” and only strike military or lawful targets.
Against this backdrop, the diplomatic push has gained new urgency. U.S. President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, described a “productive call” with national security advisers from Britain, France, Germany, and Ukraine to discuss advancing the next steps in the European peace process. Yet, the negotiations have faced fresh obstacles: Moscow announced it would toughen its stance after a reported drone attack on Putin’s residence—a claim Kyiv dismissed as a ruse to derail talks.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his New Year’s address, struck a note of cautious optimism, declaring that a peace deal was “90% ready,” but warning that the remaining 10%—widely believed to include territorial issues—would “determine the fate of peace, the fate of Ukraine and Europe, how people will live.” That final stretch, diplomats say, is where the real battle lines are drawn.
European leaders are keenly focused on what comes after a ceasefire. French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that Paris will host a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” on January 6, bringing together more than 30 countries led by France and the UK. The goal is to secure concrete commitments to protect Ukraine once a deal is signed. “Many European states and allies will make concrete commitments to protect Ukraine and ensure a just and lasting peace,” Macron said in his New Year’s address, as cited by Kyiv Post.
Options under discussion include sustained military support for Ukraine’s armed forces, a European-led peacekeeping force, and so-called “tripwire” guarantees—potentially backed by force—if Russia violates the agreement. U.S. special envoy Witkoff confirmed that strengthening security guarantees was a central focus of recent talks with European partners. Canada, too, is stepping up: Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to travel to Paris for the January 5-6 meetings, emphasizing Ottawa’s commitment to a peace deal underpinned by “robust security guarantees.”
In Washington, senior Republican lawmakers have signaled support for Trump’s diplomatic push, but with clear conditions. Senator Roger Wicker, chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, welcomed the West’s unified negotiating position, insisting that “cohesion—not concession—is what brings Russia to the table.” Wicker rejected any settlement that would force Kyiv to relinquish territory it still controls, warning that such an outcome would be a “negotiation victory” Putin has failed to achieve militarily. Representative Mike Turner emphasized, “Ukraine is on the side of democracy and liberty. Russia is on the side of authoritarianism and aggression.” Senator Lindsey Graham praised a Trump-backed “20-point plan,” but cautioned that success would require “more pressure on Putin’s Russia.”
Back in Ukraine, President Zelensky has moved to shore up his government amid the turmoil. On January 3, he appointed General Kyrylo Budanov, the country’s head of military intelligence, as his new chief of staff, replacing longtime aide Andrii Yermak, who resigned in November following a corruption investigation. The reshuffling comes on the heels of a major energy sector scandal that rocked Ukraine’s wartime leadership. Zelensky has also proposed Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal as the new energy minister and first deputy prime minister, arguing that his experience is vital for stabilizing the power sector during war.
Economic support is another pillar of the peace process. Ukraine is coordinating with European partners on security guarantee plans that include Ukrainian forces as the first line of defense, European-led troops in Ukraine, and U.S. “backstop” support, according to Ukrainian negotiator Oleksandr Bevz. Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka announced that international partners have agreed on an economic support package worth about $800 billion over the next decade, covering reconstruction, economic stability, and a $200 billion growth “booster.”
Amid all this, the question of the frozen £2.5 billion proceeds from the sale of Chelsea FC—once owned by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich—remains unresolved. In a conversation with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Zelensky pressed for a “fair decision” regarding the funds, arguing they must “significantly help protect lives and support Ukraine’s recovery after all the Russian strikes.” Starmer, for his part, praised the resilience of the Ukrainian people and reiterated the importance of a just and lasting peace.
As the diplomatic circuit moves from Kyiv to Paris and beyond, the challenge remains the same: how to end Europe’s bloodiest war in decades without legitimizing the aggression that started it. For now, the West is united, but the coming days will test whether unity can translate into a durable peace—one backed by concrete guarantees and the resolve to enforce them.
