On February 12, 2026, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) delivered a rare and revealing assessment to the National Assembly: Kim Ju-ae, the daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, has entered the “successor nomination stage.” This development, reported by multiple South Korean lawmakers and widely covered by outlets such as Newsis and BBC, marks a significant escalation in the speculation swirling around North Korea’s dynastic leadership succession and hints at broader strategic shifts inside the reclusive regime.
“Kim Ju-ae is now in the successor nomination stage,” the NIS stated, according to a briefing by lawmakers Park Sun-won and Lee Sung-kwon. This is a step up from the previous description of her as being in “succession training.” The language shift is more than semantics—it signals that Kim Ju-ae’s status within the regime is being deliberately elevated and that North Korea’s leadership is preparing, at least in part, for the future.
Kim Ju-ae’s public visibility has been growing steadily since her first appearance alongside her father at a missile test site in November 2022. Since then, she’s been seen at a string of high-profile events, including military parades, the launch of the Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, and the unveiling of the Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite. She also accompanied Kim Jong-un to China’s Victory Day parade in September 2025, though she did not appear at the parade itself. These appearances have been interpreted as deliberate moves to bolster her image as a potential leader, especially as North Korean state media has shifted from calling her the “beloved child” to the “respected child”—a subtle but telling change.
According to BBC, the NIS’s analysis suggests that Kim Ju-ae’s role is being “actively strengthened,” with her now reportedly second in ceremonial protocol. Lawmakers briefed on the intelligence noted that she has been observed giving opinions on some policy matters and directly participating in on-site inspections. “She’s going out in the field, listening to difficulties, helping to resolve them, and expressing opinions on implementing policies,” one lawmaker explained, relaying the NIS’s findings. This, combined with her prominent presence at events like Armed Forces Day and the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, is cited as evidence of her deepening involvement in state affairs.
But will Kim Ju-ae ultimately become North Korea’s next leader? The answer remains far from clear. Skepticism abounds, both inside and outside South Korea. North Korea has never had a female leader, and the regime’s patriarchal traditions run deep. Some analysts, as reported by BBC, suggest that Kim Ju-ae’s prominence might be a strategic move to obscure the existence of a male heir, or to project a more modern, family-friendly image to the world. The NIS itself acknowledged that information about Kim Jong-un’s children is scant—Kim Ju-ae reportedly has a brother and another sibling whose gender is unknown, but neither has appeared publicly.
Nevertheless, the NIS is taking Kim Ju-ae’s rise seriously. The agency plans to closely monitor her participation and protocol status at the upcoming 9th Workers’ Party Congress, a major political event expected to open after the Lunar New Year. Specific indicators will be scrutinized: Will she attend? How will she be treated in terms of ceremony? Will her name and titles be used in ways that signal succession? And will the party’s rules be amended to hint at future leadership transitions? These questions are front and center for South Korean intelligence.
Meanwhile, the NIS’s briefing also highlighted significant shifts in North Korea’s foreign and security policy. Despite regular expressions of dissatisfaction with the United States—especially over the deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula—North Korea has refrained from outright rejecting dialogue with Washington. In fact, Pyongyang has gone so far as to avoid antagonizing former U.S. President Donald Trump, holding off on ICBM test launches that might provoke him. “North Korea does not deny the possibility of dialogue with the U.S.,” the NIS reported, “and has refrained from criticizing former President Trump to leave room for engagement.”
This calculated restraint is part of a broader pattern. The NIS believes that if certain conditions are met, North Korea could respond positively to dialogue with the United States. For now, the regime is “leaving room for maneuver” by avoiding actions that would close off diplomatic options. According to Newsis, this includes not conducting ICBM tests and keeping negative rhetoric to a minimum, possibly in hopes of finding common ground in the future.
On the inter-Korean front, however, North Korea is keeping its distance. The NIS described Pyongyang’s approach as one of “distancing” and “non-response,” with the regime maintaining a firm two-nation policy and issuing instructions to its overseas missions to avoid engagement with the South. This stance is reflected in ongoing public exchanges over issues like drone incursions and military responses, but the overall tone remains frosty and noncommittal.
In another sign of shifting priorities, North Korea’s relationship with Russia has intensified to unprecedented levels. High-level exchanges between the two countries reached a record 49 meetings in 2025, with cooperation expanding across military, economic, and cultural spheres. The NIS reported that around 10,000 North Korean combat troops are currently deployed at Russia’s Kursk border for defense, and about 1,000 construction engineer troops are also involved. There’s even talk of redeploying 1,100 combat engineers who returned to North Korea in December 2025. North Korea is also accelerating its drone program, creating a specialized unit to develop and mass-produce unmanned aerial vehicles—with some personnel reportedly being considered for dispatch to Russian strategic facilities. “North Korea is modernizing its weapons systems with Russian technical support,” one lawmaker explained.
Relations with China, by contrast, remain lukewarm. Despite Kim Jong-un’s high-profile visit to Tiananmen Square with President Xi Jinping in September 2025, the NIS said that the momentum for recovery has stalled. North Korea-China trade reached over $3 billion last year, but that’s only about half of pre-sanctions levels. China continues to enforce strict sanctions, including crackdowns on smuggling, and has limited its support to fertilizer aid. North Korea, for its part, is said to be dissatisfied with China’s stance but is still instructing its diplomats to attend Chinese events in an attempt to maintain ties.
As North Korea enters a potentially transformative period, all eyes are on Kim Ju-ae. Will she break the mold and become North Korea’s first female leader, or is her rise merely a carefully orchestrated performance? For now, the world—and South Korea’s intelligence community—waits and watches, parsing every signal for clues to the future of the world’s most secretive regime.