The race to lead the United States Federal Reserve has hit a fever pitch as President Donald Trump edges closer to naming his pick to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term concludes in May 2026. At the center of the swirling speculation is Kevin Hassett, the current head of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett’s name has surged to the top of betting markets and political rumor mills alike, with insiders and analysts pointing to his close alignment with Trump’s economic priorities and his vocal support for immediate interest rate cuts.
On November 30, 2025, aboard Air Force One, President Trump offered a tantalizing hint to reporters, saying, “I know who I am going to pick, yeah. We’ll be announcing it,” as reported by Bloomberg. While he stopped short of naming names, the financial world hardly waited for official confirmation. According to Polymarket, the odds on Hassett’s nomination soared to 72%, far outpacing other contenders like Kevin Warsh, who trailed at just 12%.
So why all the fuss over Kevin Hassett? For starters, Hassett has publicly embraced the idea of cutting interest rates without delay. Appearing on Fox News last week, he declared, “If I were chair I would be cutting rates right now because the data suggests that we should.” This stance dovetails perfectly with Trump’s long-standing belief that the Federal Reserve has been too slow to loosen monetary policy, a view that has animated much of his rhetoric since taking office.
The market’s reaction to the prospect of a Hassett-led Fed has been swift and dramatic. Last Monday, November 24, 2025, US Treasury yields on the benchmark 10-year note dropped to 4%, the lowest level in a month, as investors priced in the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts. Risk assets, particularly tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, rallied sharply—an unmistakable sign that traders expect easier money and a more growth-friendly environment if Hassett takes the helm.
Yet, behind the scenes, the process is anything but settled. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has played a key role in managing the selection, hinting in late November that an announcement could come before Christmas. The urgency is palpable, with Trump eager to set a new economic narrative as the election cycle heats up. Still, whoever is nominated will face the scrutiny of Senate confirmation hearings, a hurdle that could introduce both uncertainty and delay.
Hassett, for his part, has tried to tamp down the speculation. On CBS’ Face the Nation, he dismissed talk of his frontrunner status as “rumor.” Nevertheless, he didn’t shy away from highlighting the positive market response to the possibility of his nomination: “We had a great Treasury auction, interest rates went down,” he said, adding that Americans should expect a nominee who will deliver “cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages at lower rate.”
But the story of Kevin Hassett is more complicated than just a market-friendly economist with a penchant for rate cuts. As reported by Fortune, reactions among his peers and former colleagues are sharply divided. To supporters like Stephen Moore, a former Trump advisor, Hassett is a “hard money guy” who understands the importance of defending the dollar and keeping inflation in check. “I can’t think of anybody better,” Moore told Fortune. William Beach, a former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner and Trump appointee, echoed the sentiment, calling Hassett “a fine economist” with “sound judgment.”
Yet, among critics, concerns run deep about Hassett’s willingness to subordinate institutional independence to political loyalty. Dean Baker, a progressive economist who previously supported Hassett for the Council of Economic Advisers, now says, “I would not count on him doing what he, in his professional opinion, thinks is correct, as opposed to what Donald Trump tells him to do.” Baker points to Hassett’s recent habit of defending Trump’s policy priorities on cable news, downplaying unfavorable economic data, and even questioning the legitimacy of federal statistics. Earlier in November, Hassett insisted that inflation had “come way down” and that the price trajectory was “really, really good,” despite official data showing five consecutive months of rising consumer prices.
Perhaps most controversially, Hassett has floated the idea that cost overruns on the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building—about $700 million over budget—could constitute legal “cause” to remove Powell before his term ends. This legal theory, aired in July 2025, has raised eyebrows among economists and former officials who worry about the precedent it could set for central bank independence.
Some observers warn that undermining trust in official statistics and the Fed’s autonomy could have far-reaching consequences. Gregory Mankiw, a former CEA chair under President George W. Bush and a Harvard professor, wrote to Fortune that it has been “painful” to watch Hassett “vigorously defending some of President Trump’s economically illiterate policies.” Mankiw added, “The big question is whether Hassett would show the degree of political independence necessary to be a successful Fed chair.”
Market reactions have also been mixed. While the initial dip in Treasury yields signaled optimism about lower rates, veteran Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath pointed out that the uptick in yields reflects bond traders’ concerns about inflation risk under a Hassett-led Fed. In a LinkedIn post, Hilsenrath argued that “the higher yield suggests bond traders are betting that a Hassett-led Fed might be softer on inflation, necessitating higher long-term yields to compensate for that risk.” He further warned that if the bond market loses faith in the Fed’s independence, rates could spike abruptly, threatening financial stability.
Inside Trump’s inner circle, these warnings are dismissed as establishment anxiety. Moore, the Heritage Foundation fellow, argues that Hassett’s commitment to controlling inflation and his deep knowledge of the banking system make him the right choice for the times. Beach, too, focused on Hassett’s communication skills and his ability to put the interests of the Fed and the U.S. economy first, even as he sidestepped questions about Hassett’s skepticism of official jobs data.
As the clock ticks toward Trump’s anticipated announcement—and with Senate confirmation looming as the next big obstacle—the future of U.S. monetary policy hangs in the balance. If confirmed, Hassett’s tenure would begin after May 2026, at a moment of economic transition. His promise of data-driven rate cuts could inject fresh momentum into sectors stifled by higher borrowing costs, but it also carries risks of renewed inflation and questions about the Fed’s independence.
Kevin Hassett’s rise from establishment economist to Trump’s preferred Fed chair nominee encapsulates the deep intertwining of politics and economic policy in America today. Whether his approach will deliver the growth and accessibility promised, or provoke new debates over the central bank’s role, remains to be seen—but the stakes for markets, households, and the broader economy could hardly be higher.
