As the calendar page turns to another earnings season, all eyes are on Wall Street’s banking giants—especially with share prices hovering at record or multi-year highs and expectations running sky-high. The first big test comes Tuesday, January 13, 2026, when JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon (BNY Mellon) kick off a packed week of results, quickly followed by Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and later, Goldman Sachs. The stakes? Nothing less than the narrative for the U.S. banking sector in 2026, with investors hungry for more than just a “beat” on quarterly numbers.
According to EBC, the mood heading into the week is shaped by a simple, if daunting, reality: when stocks are priced for excellence, merely delivering good news is rarely enough. Traders and analysts want two things—a clean earnings beat and a confident, forward-looking story. This time around, that story is less about loan growth and more about whether net interest income (NII) can remain robust after a year of falling rates, and if surging investment banking and trading revenues can offset any drag from traditional lending.
JPMorgan, the nation’s largest bank by assets, is the bellwether. Its shares are near all-time highs around $329, up a remarkable 65% from the 52-week low, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The company has beaten quarterly estimates for the past four quarters, a track record that’s both impressive and, perhaps, a little daunting. Investors now want to know: can JPMorgan keep the momentum going?
Part of the intrigue for this quarter is that it’s the first full look at how JPMorgan’s famously diversified business model performed in a market where capital markets activity roared back, NII held steady, and credit metrics, while watched closely, didn’t deteriorate. According to Seeking Alpha, “Q4 investment banking revenue growth is key, with sector-wide fees expected to rise and investment banking driving EPS upside for many banks as deal activity accelerates.”
The numbers tell their own story. JPMorgan’s revenue is split roughly into thirds: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Banking, and Commercial Banking and Asset & Wealth Management. This balance means JPM is less exposed to any single revenue stream or macro risk, a fact that helps justify its premium valuation. The bank trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.3, with a profit margin of about 32%—a full 400 to 1000 basis points higher than most peers, including Bank of America (13.2x forward P/E) and Citigroup (10.5x), as highlighted by Yahoo Finance. That premium has persisted even as JPMorgan’s stock price soared, a sign of enduring investor confidence.
But it’s not all blue skies. Management has already signaled that expenses could reach approximately $105 billion in 2026, above prior Street expectations. This new “hurdle rate” for operating leverage means that simply growing revenue isn’t enough; the bank must also show it can control costs while investing heavily in technology, AI, and advisory services. The commentary from management on the January 13 call is expected to set the tone for 2026 guidance, especially regarding the interplay of potential policy tailwinds—think corporate tax cuts and deregulation—and the cost of maintaining JPMorgan’s competitive edge.
It’s not just JPMorgan under the microscope. BNY Mellon, State Street, Citigroup, Citizens Financial Group, and Morgan Stanley are all expected to show strong growth or offer positive guidance. The sector as a whole is bracing for a profit lift in Q4 2025, driven by a rebound in investment banking revenue as deal activity recovers, alongside solid trading performance. The Financial Times described 2025 as “the best year for US investment banking since the pandemic,” with global M&A volume jumping 42% to $5.1 trillion and U.S. investment banking revenues nearing $38 billion. Expectations are for further fee growth in 2026.
Still, the easy gains from higher interest rates are now in the rearview mirror. The industry outlook for 2026, according to EBC, expects NII growth to be modest, with lower loan yields only partly offset by easing deposit costs. For this earnings week, banks able to demonstrate that deposit costs are falling faster than loan yields will likely be rewarded by the market.
Credit quality remains a closely watched issue. While credit metrics have stabilized and household leverage and debt servicing costs remain low by historical standards, there are pockets of concern—especially in consumer credit cards and commercial real estate. As EBC notes, “Consumer delinquency has shown signs of levelling off, with household leverage and debt servicing costs still low by historical standards. That is supportive, but it does not remove the risk of pockets of stress.”
The earnings calendar is packed and front-loaded. JPMorgan reports at 7:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, January 13, with its call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The next day, Bank of America (6:45 a.m. release, 8:30 a.m. call), Citigroup (8:00 a.m. release, 11:00 a.m. call), and Wells Fargo (7:00 a.m. release, 10:00 a.m. call) all report. Goldman Sachs follows on Thursday, January 15. According to EBC, “When three big banks report on the same morning, the first move in financials can be headline-driven and messy, and the cleaner trend often appears after calls begin and management gives colour on guidance.”
Expected results for Q4 2025, as compiled by EBC, show JPMorgan with $4.97 EPS on $45.65 billion in revenue (up 3.33% and 6.75% year-over-year, respectively), Bank of America at $0.96 EPS on $27.34 billion (+17.07% EPS, +7.87% revenue), Citigroup at $1.78 EPS on $20.99 billion (+32.84% EPS, +7.18% revenue), Wells Fargo at $1.65 EPS on $21.49 billion (+16.20% EPS, +5.45% revenue), and Goldman Sachs at $11.69 EPS on $14.53 billion (-2.2% EPS, +4.7% revenue).
For traditional lenders, NII remains the most important swing factor. Investors are watching closely to see if banks can sustain Q4 NII of approximately $25 billion (with NII ex-Markets around $23.5 billion for JPMorgan), and what that implies for 2026 as rate-cut expectations evolve. According to Yahoo Finance, “The market is watching if JPMorgan can sustain net interest income of approximately $25 billion in Q4 2025 and the implications for 2026 amid evolving rate-cut expectations.”
Ultimately, the market’s reaction may hinge less on Q4 results and more on guidance for the year ahead. If expense growth outpaces revenue, or if credit costs surprise to the upside, investors may treat this quarter as “peak conditions,” especially with share prices at all-time highs. On the other hand, if management teams sound optimistic about deal pipelines, deposit costs, and the potential for positive operating leverage, the bullish narrative could persist into 2026.
This week, then, is more than a simple earnings check-in—it’s a referendum on whether “banks are back” for good, or if the recent rally has run its course. With the sector’s heavyweights reporting in rapid succession, the answer may come sooner—and more dramatically—than anyone expects.
