The skies over New Brunswick—and, indeed, much of the world—are looking increasingly turbulent as the summer of 2026 approaches. The culprit? A dramatic spike in jet fuel prices and tightening global supplies, both direct consequences of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The ripple effects are already being felt by travelers and airlines alike, with cancelled flights, higher fares, and mounting uncertainty about what the coming months will bring.
According to reporting by Global News and Oilprice.com, the current crisis traces back to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. That conflict has led to a chokehold on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global energy supplies. With tankers blocked and refineries across Asia slashing exports to prioritize their own domestic needs, the global jet fuel market has been thrown into disarray. As a result, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled over the past year, hitting levels not seen in recent memory.
The impact on New Brunswick’s airports has been swift and unmistakable. In Moncton, for example, travelers are facing a leaner schedule in June: WestJet has cut six flights from Moncton to Calgary, and PAL Airlines has trimmed two flights to Newfoundland and Labrador. "From our airline partners at WestJet and PAL, they have shared with us that it is related to fuel costs," said Courtney Burns, president and CEO of Moncton International Airport, in an interview with Global News. She added, "I think airlines will do everything they can to avoid impacting their routes in peak summer, anyway. So, at this point we’re expecting our full schedule to operate as expected but it’s a very dynamic industry, things can happen and airlines have obviously a business to manage."
Saint John Airport, too, has not been spared. Seven Air Canada flights from the city to Toronto have been cancelled for May, a move that took many by surprise. Court Edeburn, president and CEO of Saint John Airport, told Global News, "These were quite quick. And I know Air Canada normally would make cancellations like this a lot further in advance. Like months in advance, so this one was unexpected." Air Canada, for its part, pointed to a combination of aircraft availability and operational constraints, rather than solely blaming rising fuel costs. Edeburn noted, "It’s just Air Canada and it’s just this one particular route. On the other flip side of the coin, we’re seeing growth with Porter and with PasCan with additional flights starting."
Elsewhere in New Brunswick, the mood is one of cautious vigilance. Fredericton International Airport’s schedule remains stable for now, but officials are keeping a close eye on developments. "We’re just going to stay close to our carriers, work with them, keep promoting the flights and really hoping that we’ll navigate the situation," said Johanne Gallant, president and CEO of Fredericton International Airport.
But the challenges extend far beyond Atlantic Canada. The global airline industry is bracing for a summer of disruption. Airports Council International, the worldwide association representing airports, has warned that millions of passengers could see their travel plans upended as airlines respond to surging jet fuel prices by raising fares and axing unprofitable routes. Stefano Baronci, the Council’s director general for Asia Pacific and the Middle East, told Bloomberg (as reported by Oilprice.com) that passengers should be prepared for higher ticket prices for the foreseeable future. "With higher air fares, demand destruction is inevitable and airlines could opt to slash more routes this summer," Baronci explained.
The numbers are staggering. In April, jet fuel prices soared to over $200 per barrel before easing to about $150 per barrel in May—still far above pre-war levels. Lufthansa Group, Europe’s largest airline, expects the surge in jet fuel prices to cost it an additional $2 billion this year. The company directly linked these costs to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely constrained Europe’s jet fuel supply.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also raised the alarm. In mid-April, Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, warned that Europe had “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply—a stark reminder of just how precarious the situation has become. While some industry leaders, like Baronci, have downplayed the risk of outright shortages (focusing instead on the pain of persistently high prices), others are less sanguine. Canadian insurance giant Manulife recently classified worldwide jet fuel shortages as a "known event" for the purposes of its trip cancellation and interruption insurance policies, reflecting the growing sense of unease among both industry insiders and travelers.
The squeeze on jet fuel isn’t just about the Middle East. Asian refiners, facing their own supply pressures, have slashed exports to keep more fuel at home. Exports from Northeast Asia and India’s West Coast have crashed, exacerbating the global crunch. With the most stressed barrel in the ongoing supply shock being jet fuel, the world’s airlines are left to grapple with tough choices: pass on costs to customers, trim routes, or both.
For passengers, the immediate impact is clear. Higher fares are already hitting wallets, and the prospect of last-minute cancellations or schedule changes looms large. WestJet, for example, told Global News that due to ongoing supply pressures, more schedule changes could be on the horizon in the months ahead. The airline says that impacted passengers are being rebooked—most on the same day as their original flight—but the uncertainty is unsettling for many would-be travelers.
Airlines are also adding new fees to cope with the cost crunch. WestJet has introduced fuel surcharges and raised baggage fees, while other carriers are following suit. These measures, while unpopular, are seen as necessary to keep planes in the air amid soaring operational costs.
Yet, it’s not all gloom. Some airlines are seizing the opportunity to expand. In Saint John, Porter and PasCan are launching new flights, offering a glimmer of hope for travelers looking for alternatives. Still, the overall trend is unmistakable: the skies are getting more expensive and less predictable.
For now, airports across New Brunswick and beyond are urging patience and flexibility. As Burns put it, "It’s a very dynamic industry, things can happen and airlines have obviously a business to manage." With the global energy market in flux and no end in sight to the Middle East crisis, travelers and airlines alike are bracing for a bumpy ride this summer.
As the world watches events unfold in the Strait of Hormuz and beyond, one thing is certain: the cost of flying has never felt higher, both literally and figuratively.