With the 2028 U.S. presidential election now less than three years away, the contest for the nation’s highest office is already heating up—both in the corridors of power and in the betting markets. The latest odds, as reported by Sportsbook Review, put Vice President JD Vance at the front of the pack, but California Governor Gavin Newsom is closing in fast, signaling a race that could reshape the American political landscape.
JD Vance, who currently serves as vice president under President Donald Trump, stands as the betting favorite with odds of +230, which translates to a 30% likelihood of clinching the presidency in 2028. Vance’s rise isn’t just a matter of numbers; it’s the result of calculated moves and growing support from conservative activist circles. According to Sportsbook Review, his increased role with Turning Point—a major conservative group—has solidified his position as the heir apparent to the MAGA movement, which played a pivotal role in Trump’s two presidential victories.
But if Vance is the Republican to beat, Democrats are rallying around their own rising star: Gavin Newsom. The California governor’s odds have soared to +380, giving him an implied 20% chance of winning the White House. Newsom’s strategy is a blend of traditional campaigning and modern media savvy. In 2025 alone, he launched a new podcast and became a central figure on social media, positioning himself as a leading voice against the Trump administration. This increased visibility has not only boosted his odds but also helped him build a broad coalition of supporters, both inside and outside of California.
The Democratic Party, however, is still in the midst of a leadership shakeup following the 2024 presidential election. In a recent interview with CNN, California Representative Eric Swalwell described the party’s emerging leaders as the "Avengers"—a nod to the Marvel superhero team—citing figures like Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas and Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona. "It’s the Avengers right now, right?" Swalwell remarked, highlighting Crockett’s efforts to elevate voter turnout in California and Gallego’s trailblazing background as a Marine and first-generation college graduate. According to Fox News, Swalwell emphasized that this new generation of Democratic leaders is united by a common mission: "to bring down prices, period."
Yet, notably absent from Swalwell’s initial list was his own state’s governor, Gavin Newsom. When pressed by CNN host Kasie Hunt, Swalwell clarified his position, praising Newsom’s "show, not tell" leadership style. He pointed to Newsom’s legal victories and his hands-on approach with voters, especially in matching Texas’s redistricting process. "That show, not tell style is what people expect right now," Swalwell said, underscoring the governor’s influence even among his peers.
This search for new leadership comes at a time when progressive Democrats are increasingly critical of the party’s old guard, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Disagreements over the handling of the government shutdown and the Trump administration have fueled calls for change, with some progressives looking to figures like New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. In fact, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently told CNBC, "He is clearly the leader of the Democratic Party now. And I think it speaks to how open-minded the president is, that he invited him into the Oval," referring to Mamdani’s meeting with President Trump.
Meanwhile, the betting markets reflect the uncertainty and excitement surrounding the 2028 race. Behind Vance and Newsom, other notable contenders include U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+1100), businessman Donald Trump Jr. (+3000), and former presidential candidates Pete Buttigieg and Ron DeSantis (both at +3300). Each of these candidates brings their own brand of political appeal, but none have managed to catch up to the two frontrunners—at least not yet.
Vance’s dominance in the odds is largely attributed to the Republican Party’s decisive victory in the 2024 election, which, as Sportsbook Review notes, is "the biggest reason to back the GOP to maintain control of the White House." Vance is currently priced at -150 to secure the Republican nomination, reflecting his strong standing within the party and among conservative voters. His alignment with the MAGA movement and support from groups like Turning Point are expected to play a significant role as the campaign season intensifies.
On the Democratic side, Newsom’s ascent is seen as a response to the party’s need for a unifying figure. He was briefly considered the favorite to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee before the 2024 election, and his recent efforts have only increased his national profile. As Sportsbook Review observes, "the California governor has been building name recognition for years as a rumored presidential candidate," and his willingness to confront the Trump administration head-on has resonated with many Democrats looking for a strong alternative to the current administration.
Of course, the field remains crowded and dynamic. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, a billionaire businessman and former contender for Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024, is viewed as a potential dark horse with odds of +3500. Pritzker’s appeal lies in his outsider status and his willingness to challenge President Trump publicly, including through social media and televised appearances. While his chances are currently pegged at under 3%, some analysts believe his odds could improve as the election draws nearer.
The 2028 presidential election is set for November 7, 2028, with the 2026 midterms serving as a key milestone along the way. As the campaign trail heats up, both parties are likely to face further internal debates over leadership, strategy, and the direction of their respective movements. The Democrats, in particular, appear to be at a crossroads, balancing the energy of their "Avengers"-style rising stars with the experience and influence of established figures like Newsom.
For now, all eyes are on Vance and Newsom as the two frontrunners in a race that promises twists, surprises, and—if the betting markets are any indication—a few upsets along the way. With the political landscape shifting and new leaders emerging, the 2028 election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent memory.
As candidates jockey for position and parties search for their next standard-bearer, voters and observers alike are left to wonder: Who will ultimately step up to lead America into its next chapter?
