On a brisk Tuesday morning in Dallas, U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett stepped out of the Oak Lawn Branch Library, greeted supporters, and cast her ballot for the Texas Democratic Senate primary. Early voting had just begun for the March 3, 2026, primaries, and the stakes couldn’t be higher—not just for Crockett, but for the entire Lone Star State. Surrounded by family, friends, and campaign volunteers, Crockett’s presence was both a celebration and a call to action. "We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat," she told Newsweek, her words echoing the urgency felt by many Texas Democrats.
Texas, after all, hasn’t sent a Democrat to statewide office in over 30 years. For decades, the state’s deep-red reputation has seemed unshakable—a Republican stronghold where Democratic hopes routinely flicker and fade. But 2026 feels different. According to The Guardian, recent political shifts, a surge in Democratic fundraising, and razor-thin polling margins have injected a sense of possibility into a contest long considered a foregone conclusion.
The Democratic primary has become a high-profile showdown between Crockett, a civil rights attorney and media firebrand, and State Representative James Talarico, who grounds his progressive populism in faith and a bridge-building message. Both candidates have cast themselves as the Democrats’ best hope for November, but the primary has grown messy, with supporters sparring over issues of electability and race. Tensions boiled over recently when a Texas-based influencer alleged that Talarico had privately described his former rival, Colin Allred, as a “mediocre Black man”—a claim Talarico disputes, insisting he was referring to Allred’s campaign, not his life or service. Allred, for his part, endorsed Crockett and criticized Talarico, amplifying the contest's already heated atmosphere.
Despite the drama, Crockett appears to hold the advantage as early voting gets underway. A University of Houston poll conducted between January 20 and January 31, 2026, showed Crockett with 47% support among likely Democratic primary voters, compared to Talarico’s 39%. Ahmad Hassan, another candidate, trailed with 2%, while a significant 12% of voters remained undecided. The poll, which surveyed 1,502 likely voters and carried a margin of error of ±2.53 percentage points, also revealed high favorability ratings for both Crockett (84%) and Talarico (79%).
Other polls paint a more complicated picture. Texas Public Opinion Research found Crockett leading Talarico by a single point—38% to 37%—with a hefty 21% of voters still on the fence. An Emerson College poll, however, flipped the script, showing Talarico ahead, 47% to 38%. With such a volatile polling landscape, the outcome is far from certain, and those undecided voters could ultimately tip the scales.
For Texas Democrats, the stakes extend far beyond the primary. The winner will face a Republican nominee in November for the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn, a four-term incumbent and conservative stalwart. But Cornyn’s path to renomination is anything but smooth. He faces a fierce primary challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose legal battles and high-profile impeachment have made him a hero to the MAGA wing of the GOP. U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, another Trump-aligned candidate, is also in the mix, offering an alternative for Republicans wary of both Cornyn and Paxton.
According to The Guardian, the Republican primary has become a battle between the party’s old guard and insurgent populists. Cornyn, once considered a possible successor to Mitch McConnell, touts his experience and loyalty to Trump—claiming he votes with the former president more than 99% of the time. Paxton, meanwhile, frames Cornyn as the embodiment of a Washington status quo out of step with grassroots conservatives. "Nothing moves the base like being endorsed by the Houston Chronicle," Paxton quipped, poking fun at Cornyn’s institutional support.
Polls suggest Paxton may have the edge. The University of Houston survey found him leading Cornyn 38% to 31%, with Hunt at 17%. Because Texas requires a majority to secure the nomination, a May runoff is likely—a scenario that could favor Paxton’s energized base. As James Henson of the Texas Politics Project told The Guardian, "Victory becomes more costly for Republicans, but it’s certainly not out of the question." The big wild card? Donald Trump. So far, the former president has stayed silent, but his endorsement could upend the race in an instant.
Amid all this, Democrats are grappling with their own identity crisis. Crockett, a 44-year-old congresswoman, has emerged as one of her party’s most forceful messengers, known for her sharp exchanges with Republicans in congressional hearings that frequently go viral online. "It’s not about who sounds as clean as possible. It is about tapping into the rawness of this moment," she declared during a January debate. Talarico, a former teacher and seminarian, pitches himself as a bridge-builder, warning against "the same old politics of division." In the January debate, he said, "The real fight in this country is not left versus right. It’s top versus bottom. We will not win this race in November with the same old politics of division."
Despite her late entry into the race, Crockett’s campaign has gained momentum, driven by grassroots fundraising and a savvy online presence. Monique Alcala, a former executive director for the Texas Democratic Party, told The Guardian, "When Jasmine got into the race, I predicted that this was going to be the most online US senatorial race in the country. That has proven to be on the nose." Still, the party remains divided over questions of style, identity, and the elusive concept of "electability."
Meanwhile, Republicans face their own existential questions. Some fear that nominating Paxton, who was impeached in 2023 but acquitted by the state senate, could force the party to pour resources into a race that would otherwise be safely in their column. Others believe that the presence of popular Governor Greg Abbott on the ballot could help pull even a wounded nominee across the finish line. And then there’s the matter of national headwinds: with economic unease and backlash to Trump’s deportation agenda swirling, even the most confident Republicans are bracing for a fight.
Recent Democratic gains have only heightened GOP anxiety. Earlier this month, Democrat Taylor Rehmet captured a state senate seat in a Fort Worth-area district that Trump had carried by more than 17 points in 2024—a result that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Political analysts now say the 2026 climate more closely resembles the mood in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke came within three points of unseating Ted Cruz.
As early voting continues through February 27, Texans from all walks of life are weighing their options. The Democratic contest, in particular, feels like a referendum on the party’s future: will voters choose Crockett’s unapologetic fire, or Talarico’s message of unity? And what of the Republicans—will the party’s base embrace Paxton’s insurgency, or stick with Cornyn’s steady hand?
One thing is certain: the outcome of these primaries will shape not just the November ballot, but the political future of Texas itself. For the first time in a generation, both parties face real uncertainty—and, perhaps, real opportunity.