The diplomatic relationship between Japan and China has taken a sharp turn in recent weeks, ignited by a controversial statement from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and amplified by a series of military maneuvers in the region. The unfolding events have not only raised questions about the stability of East Asian security but have also cast a spotlight on the growing complexities surrounding Taiwan and the broader geopolitical contest in the Western Pacific.
The drama began on November 7, 2025, when Prime Minister Takaichi, during a parliamentary hearing, offered an unusually specific interpretation of Japan’s Armed Attack Situation Response Act. This legal framework governs when and how Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) can be deployed in response to external threats. While the law has long maintained a deliberate ambiguity—especially regarding what constitutes a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan—Takaichi broke with precedent by directly referencing a hypothetical scenario involving Taiwan, U.S. warships, and potential Japanese support if the United States were attacked near the Taiwan Strait.
According to Fair Observer, the controversy arose not because Takaichi announced a change in policy, but because her comments were far more concrete than those of any previous prime minister. Saya Kiba, a professor at Kobe City University of Foreign Studies, explained that Japan’s government has historically avoided such specificity to maintain strategic ambiguity. “Her statement was just too much,” Kiba noted, emphasizing that Takaichi’s remarks appeared to sidestep the careful legal and political balancing act underpinning Japan’s approach to regional security.
Japan’s official position remains unchanged: it recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legal government of China and respects Beijing’s One China principle. This means that, in legal terms, Japan would not directly defend Taiwan. The only scenario in which Japan might consider military action would be if the United States—its principal security ally—were attacked in or around the Taiwan Strait. Even then, any decision would require cabinet deliberation and parliamentary approval.
Despite this, public opinion in Taiwan appears to diverge sharply from the legal reality. A 2022 survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found that 43% of respondents believed Japan would send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack—an even higher proportion than those who expected U.S. intervention. Kiba was blunt in her assessment of this perception, calling it “very wrong” and highlighting the need for clearer public diplomacy not only toward Taiwan but also to the broader international community.
China’s reaction was swift and severe. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi accused Japan of crossing a “red line,” a phrase that underscores just how central the Taiwan issue is to Beijing’s interests. According to Fair Observer, the foundation of Japan–China relations is anchored in the 1972 Japan–China Joint Communiqué, in which Japan recognized the PRC’s sovereignty and stated that it “fully understands and respects” China’s position that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its territory. This stance has not changed, despite the recent flare-up.
Beijing’s sensitivity is further heightened by its perception of Takaichi herself. Even before assuming the premiership, she was seen in China as an assertive, conservative politician—one who was outspokenly critical of China and committed to expanding Japan’s defense capabilities. Although Takaichi ultimately decided against visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine after taking office, China’s wariness of her leadership remains palpable.
The diplomatic chill quickly spilled over into military posturing. On December 10, 2025, Japan’s 6th Air Wing of F-15 fighters conducted a joint drill with two U.S. B-52 nuclear-capable bombers over the Sea of Japan—a pointed show of force that followed Chinese and Russian military exercises in the region. As reported by Reuters, this was Washington’s most visible gesture of support for Japan amid China’s ongoing pressure campaign, which had included a freeze on diplomatic and trade talks and calls for Chinese tourists to avoid Japan.
In the lead-up to the drill, tensions had already been escalating. The Japanese Defense Ministry reported an increased Chinese coast guard presence around disputed territories in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Japan. Over the preceding weekend, Chinese fighter jets locked their radars on Japanese planes near Okinawa—a move described by Tokyo as highly dangerous, since radar locks typically precede an attack. On December 9, both Japan and South Korea scrambled aircraft in response to a joint Chinese–Russian bomber patrol near their airspaces.
Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi publicly condemned these joint Chinese–Russian flights, stating on social media, “The repeated joint flights of bombers by both countries signify an expansion and intensification of activities around our country, while clearly intending to demonstrate force against our nation, posing a serious concern for our national security.” The United States, which had largely tried to avoid direct involvement in the Japan–China dispute, responded more forcefully, with the State Department declaring, “The U.S.-Japan Alliance is stronger and more united than ever. Our commitment to our ally Japan is unwavering, and we are in close contact on this and other issues.”
NATO also entered the conversation. Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed “grave concerns” over the radar incident in a meeting with Minister Koizumi, according to a Japanese government readout. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun insisted that the drills with Russia were part of an annual cooperation plan meant to “safeguard regional peace and stability.” He further urged Japan to “face up to what actually caused the current difficulties facing China–Japan relations, do serious soul-searching and correct its wrongdoing, and retract Prime Minister Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan.”
For its part, Taiwan has tried to leverage the crisis to strengthen ties with Tokyo. President William Lai, speaking to reporters on December 11, 2025, described China’s recent actions as “very inappropriate.” He added, “We also call upon China to demonstrate the responsibility befitting a major power. Peace is priceless; war has no winners. Peace must be fostered by all parties, and China shares this responsibility.”
Beneath the diplomatic and military sparring lies a web of historical and social sensitivities. Taiwan was once a Japanese colony, and Japan still controls territory near Taiwan. Chinese missiles have even landed in Japanese waters during war games around the island. At the same time, there are ongoing fears for the safety of Japanese nationals in China, with incidents of detainment since 2014 and the killing of a Japanese schoolboy by a Chinese resident in 2024. Conversely, Chinese citizens in Japan worry about hate crimes and discrimination during periods of heightened political tension.
As the dust settles, the episode serves as a stark reminder of how strategic ambiguity, historical grievances, and shifting public perceptions can collide to create real-world risks. Whether these tensions escalate or subside will depend not just on official policy, but on the restraint—and goodwill—of individuals on both sides of the East China Sea.
