As Iraq emerges from its November 2025 parliamentary elections, the country stands at a pivotal crossroads. With a higher-than-anticipated voter turnout of 56.11%—a significant rise from the 43.3% turnout in 2021, according to the Independent High Electoral Commission—hopes are high for a government that can deliver stability, reform, and sovereignty. Yet, the road ahead is anything but straightforward. Coalition talks are underway, the prime minister’s seat is hotly contested, and the nation faces daunting challenges ranging from water scarcity to regional power struggles.
At the heart of the unfolding drama is caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, whose Construction and Development Coalition (also known as Al-Ima’ar wal-Tanmiya) secured 46 seats, making it the largest bloc in the 329-seat Council of Representatives. However, with 38 political parties winning seats, the path to forming a government will require intricate negotiation and consensus-building. After the 2021 election, it took a year to form a government, and many Iraqis are bracing for another long wait.
Five main contenders have emerged for the coveted prime minister position. Alongside Al-Sudani, the list includes former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, Intelligence Chief Hamid Al-Shatri, former Youth and Sports Minister Abdul-Hussein Abtan, and Basim al-Badri, head of Iraq’s Accountability and Justice Parliamentary Commission. Each brings a unique background and political network to the table, adding layers of complexity to the coalition talks, as reported by Shafaq News.
Al-Sudani, born in Baghdad in 1970, holds degrees in agricultural science and project management. He rose through the ranks of the Dawa Party, serving as mayor, governor, and later as Minister of Human Rights and Minister of Labor and Social Affairs before becoming prime minister in 2022. His main rival, Nouri Al-Maliki, a seasoned politician and Dawa Party stalwart, led Iraq from 2006 to 2014 and now heads the State of Law Coalition, which won 29 seats in the 2025 contest. Intelligence Chief Hamid Al-Shatri, appointed to his current post in December 2024, is known for his security expertise and leadership of Iraq’s "Falcons Cell," a high-profile intelligence unit. Abdul-Hussein Abtan, a Najaf native and former Minister of Youth and Sports, and Basim al-Badri, a longtime figure in the Accountability and Justice Commission, round out the field.
Despite the robust turnout and diverse field of candidates, Iraq’s new government will inherit a daunting to-do list. The most immediate crisis is water scarcity. Iraq depends on Turkey and Iran for nearly 75% of its freshwater, and 2025 has been the driest year since 1933. Water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have dropped by up to 27%, and reservoirs now hold less than 8 billion cubic meters—their lowest in over eight decades. In September, the government even suspended wheat planting due to insufficient water. Basra, a city of 3.5 million, faces a humanitarian crisis as residents increasingly rely on trucked-in water.
There is a glimmer of hope: Iraq and Turkey signed a five-year water management agreement in November 2025, introducing a mechanism for Turkish oversight of water releases and infrastructure rehabilitation. According to Torhan al-Mufti, Sudani’s advisor on water affairs, water inflows from Turkey to the Tigris have doubled in two years. However, the agreement is only a temporary fix, and the underlying vulnerabilities remain.
Economic challenges are equally pressing. Iraq’s economy is heavily dependent on oil revenues, which account for over 90% of the federal budget. Operational expenses, including public employee salaries, consume 94% of government spending, leaving just 6% for investment. The country’s fiscal health is further strained by declining oil prices and the global economic slowdown, particularly in China—a key export market for Iraqi oil. To cushion public discontent, Sudani’s government added 370,000 employees and expanded the social safety net, but these moves have entrenched patronage networks and postponed much-needed reforms.
Efforts to diversify the economy are underway. Iraq is working to end natural gas flaring by 2027, aiming to use captured gas for domestic power generation and eliminate costly imports, especially from Iran. This initiative is expected to save the country $4 billion annually. Additionally, Iraq has achieved self-reliance in several petroleum products, halting imports and saving up to $10 billion each year. The 2024-2028 development plan seeks to further reduce oil dependence by attracting foreign investment and expanding sectors like infrastructure, agriculture, and finance. The ambitious Development Road project aims to transform Iraq into a trade corridor between Asia and Europe, though security and regional competition pose significant hurdles.
On the international front, Iraq finds itself in the crosshairs of U.S.-Iran tensions. U.S. Special Envoy Mark Savaya recently announced plans to visit Iraq, emphasizing American opposition to "any outside interference" in the formation of the new government and reaffirming the U.S. commitment to Iraq’s sovereignty and reform efforts. "Let it be clear that the United States will not accept or permit any outside interference in shaping the new Iraqi government," Savaya stated, according to his official social media post. He also congratulated the Iraqi people on the successful election, describing it as "a crucial step toward strengthening democracy and stability in the country."
Meanwhile, the U.S. is in the process of withdrawing combat forces from Iraq, with a full exit expected by September 2026. However, small contingents will remain in Iraqi Kurdistan and at Ain al-Asad Air Base to assist with counterterrorism operations. The presence of Iran-backed militias, some of which have won significant parliamentary representation, complicates U.S.-Iraq relations. In October, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Sudani to disarm these groups, but integrating or sidelining them is easier said than done. As Ameer Al-Auqaili observed, "Militias no longer threaten to overthrow the state because they have, in many ways, become the state. They control ministries, direct security forces, and dominate economic landscapes, using the ballot box to validate their existing power."
Balancing these internal and external pressures is a delicate act. Iraq has thus far managed to maintain a degree of neutrality amid U.S.-Iran rivalry, pursuing diplomatic restraint and facilitating regional ceasefires and aid deliveries. The International Institute for Strategic Studies notes that Iraq’s recent diplomatic initiatives have helped deescalate regional tensions, but the risk of being drawn into proxy conflicts persists.
As the coalition talks continue and the country waits for a new government to take shape, Iraq’s future hinges on its leaders’ ability to address urgent domestic needs while navigating the treacherous waters of regional and international politics. The choices made in the coming months will set the course for Iraq’s democracy, economy, and sovereignty for years to come.