As Iraq prepares for its parliamentary elections on November 11, 2025, the nation stands at a crossroads, its political future entwined with the broader turbulence of the Middle East. The approaching vote is set against a backdrop of uneasy calm—thanks to a recent ceasefire in Gaza, regional tensions have cooled, but few in Baghdad or beyond are breathing easy. Fears linger that a fresh round of conflict between Israel and Iran, Iraq’s powerful neighbor to the east, could erupt at any moment, and Iraq’s leaders are treading carefully to avoid being swept into the fray, according to reporting from AP and Devdiscourse.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who came to power in 2022 with the blessing of a coalition of pro-Iranian parties, now finds himself walking a diplomatic tightrope. Since his election, he’s sought to balance Iraq’s longstanding ties with Tehran and the ever-watchful gaze of Washington. That balancing act has grown only more precarious as Baghdad faces mounting pressure from the United States to rein in Iran-linked armed groups operating within its borders. The outcome of the November vote will determine whether al-Sudani secures what has proven a rare prize in Iraqi politics: a second term in office.
The stakes are high. Iraq’s parliament, a 329-seat body, will be filled by the winners among 7,768 candidates—2,248 women and 5,520 men—vying for influence in a country still haunted by decades of war, occupation, and internal strife. The strongest political blocs include Shiite factions led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and cleric Ammar al-Hakim, as well as groups linked to powerful armed militias. Sunni factions are also in the mix, led by former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadi, alongside the two main Kurdish parties: the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, according to AP.
Yet, the contest is as notable for who is absent as for who is running. The Sadrist Movement, led by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is boycotting the elections entirely. Al-Sadr’s bloc won the largest number of seats in the 2021 elections but withdrew after negotiations over forming a government broke down. In Baghdad’s Sadr City, banners proclaim the movement’s stance: “We are all boycotting upon orders from leader al-Sadr. No to America, no to Israel, no to corruption.” The Victory Coalition, a smaller group led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, is also sitting out the vote, citing what it calls widespread corruption. Reformist groups born from the mass anti-government protests of October 2019 are participating, but they’re weakened by internal divisions and a lack of resources.
Allegations of corruption and vote-buying have dogged the campaign from the start. Political analyst Bassem al-Qazwini didn’t mince words, calling these elections “the most exploited since 2003 in terms of political money and state resources.” A campaign official, speaking anonymously, claimed that nearly all candidates, including those from major blocs, are distributing cash and buying voter cards—sometimes for as much as 300,000 Iraqi dinars (about $200) apiece. The Independent High Electoral Commission, for its part, insists it’s taking the problem seriously. In a statement to AP, the commission said, “Strict measures have been taken to monitor campaign spending and curb vote-buying.” The commission pledged that any candidate found guilty of such violations will be “immediately disqualified.”
Unfortunately, the shadow of violence has also fallen over the campaign. On October 15, Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate in the al-Tarmiya district north of the capital, was killed by a car bomb. Two suspects have been arrested, and authorities believe the crime was “related to electoral competition.” Aisha Ghazal Al-Masari, a member of parliament from the Sovereignty Alliance, which al-Mashhadani belonged to, called the killing “a cowardly crime reminiscent of the dark days of assassinations,” recalling the lawlessness that followed Saddam Hussein’s ouster in 2003.
The influence of militias—especially those linked to Iran—remains a defining feature of Iraq’s political landscape. Groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, both with their own political wings, wield significant military and financial clout. The Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella coalition of militias formed to fight the Islamic State group, was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016. Yet in practice, these groups still operate with considerable autonomy and have transitioned into influential political actors.
Al-Sudani, for his part, has tried to thread the needle on the role of armed factions in politics. He recently told journalists, “We cannot prevent any group from engaging in politics if they renounce arms. This is a step in the right direction.” Still, many militias with political parties participating in the elections have not fully disarmed. The United States has not been shy about voicing its concerns. In a statement, the U.S. State Department said Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with al-Sudani on October 20, “highlighting the urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty, threaten the lives and businesses of Americans and Iraqis, and pilfer Iraqi resources for Iran.”
Despite these challenges, there are glimmers of hope. Polling by the Al-Mustakella Research Group, affiliated with Gallup International Association, found that for the first time since 2004, more than half of Iraqis believe the country is heading in the right direction. In early 2025, 55% of those surveyed said they had confidence in the central government. Al-Sudani has sought to capitalize on this optimism, positioning himself as a pragmatist focused on improving public services. But skepticism remains widespread. Baghdad resident Saif Ali summed up the frustration of many: “What happened with regards to electricity from 2003 until now? Nothing. What happened with water? Drought has reached Baghdad. These are the basic services, and they are not available, so what is the point of elections?”
Since 2003, only one Iraqi prime minister—Nouri al-Maliki—has managed to serve more than a single term. Ihsan al-Shammari, professor of strategic and international studies at Baghdad University, explained that the premiership “does not depend solely on election results but on political bloc agreements and regional and international understandings” to form a government. Disagreements over control of state institutions between al-Sudani and some leaders in the Shiite Coordination Framework bloc that brought him to power, al-Shammari added, “may hinder his chances of a second term.”
As the November 11 elections approach, Iraqis are left to weigh their hopes against a history of dashed expectations. The outcome will shape not only the country’s leadership but its ability to navigate a region where peace is always fragile and the next crisis never far away.