As Iraq’s parliamentary elections unfold in November 2025, the country finds itself at the center of a regional power struggle, with Iranian influence and American interests colliding on its streets and in its corridors of power. The stakes are high: with more than 7,700 candidates from 114 party lists vying for 329 seats, Iraqis are not just choosing their next government—they are also determining the balance of power between their own sovereignty and the persistent tug-of-war between Tehran and Washington.
Baghdad’s streets are alive with campaign posters, each one a testament to the intensity of this year’s contest. Politicians pose in hard hats, promising "strength and prosperity," while the city’s landscape—once scarred by car bombs and sectarian violence—now boasts new apartment blocks, cafes, gyms, and spas. This transformation, as The New York Times reports, is a symbol of the "improbable haven of calm" that Iraq has become, at least compared to some of its neighbors.
Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, who is widely credited with shepherding this period of relative stability, leads an alliance expected to secure the most votes. Yet, his path to a second term is far from certain. Some of his former allies are determined to block him from forming a new government, foreshadowing weeks—or even months—of negotiation and political maneuvering once the ballots are counted.
Underlying the election’s surface drama is a deeper, more dangerous question: can Iraq curb the influence of Iran, its powerful neighbor to the east? Since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraqi politics have been dominated by the Shiite Muslim majority, with Iran—home to the region’s most powerful Shiite state—playing an outsized role. Over the years, Iran-backed militias, originally formed to fight the rise of ISIS in 2014, have entrenched themselves in Iraq’s military and political life. These groups, which once relied on Tehran for money and weapons, now control several government ministries and lucrative state contracts. Many have grown so wealthy, officials say, that they no longer need direct Iranian funding.
As The New York Times details, Kataib Hezbollah—arguably the most powerful Iran-backed militia—recently held a raucous campaign rally in Kut, its flags bearing a fist clutching a rifle waving above car convoys. The group’s military spokesman, Jaafar al-Husseini, made no secret of their intentions, declaring, "Iraq is under full Shiite guardianship, whether they like it or not, and our weapons will remain in our hands." For these militias, the move into politics is not about disarmament but about protecting their interests. As Mohammed al-Tamimi, head of the group al-Waad al-Sadeq, put it, "Every faction needs men in the Parliament and government to safeguard their ambitions and their people’s demands."
This entanglement of armed groups and political power has drawn sharp warnings from the United States. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently underscored the "urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias," while President Trump’s newly appointed envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, emphasized, "The United States stands with Iraq as it moves forward: strong, independent, and free from foreign-backed militias." U.S. officials are pressing for a government free of parties aligned with these groups and are negotiating to maintain a military presence beyond the planned withdrawal of 1,300 troops by September 2026—ostensibly to combat lingering ISIS threats.
Iran, for its part, is not sitting quietly. Its foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, condemned American pressure on Iraq’s elections as "unacceptable." Iraq’s foreign ministry shot back, calling Tehran’s comments "provocative" and urging Iran to stay out of its internal affairs. The tension is palpable, not just in diplomatic statements but in the lived reality of ordinary Iraqis. Many, even those who describe themselves as anti-American, want to see the militias disarmed. As Mahasan Ali, a retired kindergarten teacher, told The New York Times, "I don’t like or agree with the Americans on anything, except on this."
Prime Minister al-Sudani has tried to walk a fine line, portraying himself as the candidate best positioned to balance Iranian and American interests. He has championed deals with Chevron and Exxon to develop Iraq’s oil fields and has even penned an essay in The New York Post to promote Iraq as a partner for U.S. investment. Next month, he plans to bring 50 Iraqi billionaires to Washington for an "Invest in America" conference, aiming to show what he calls "harmony with President Trump’s course." Yet critics argue that his success in keeping the militias in check has come by "turbocharging the patronage system," further entrenching their influence in government and business.
For Tehran, Iraq is more than a neighbor—it is a strategic lifeline and a matter of national security. The two countries share a nearly 1,000-mile border and a bitter history, having fought a brutal eight-year war in the 1980s. As Ihsan al-Shammari, a political scientist at Baghdad University, told The New York Times, "Iraq represents one of the national security pillars for Iran, so Iran will fight to maintain control in Iraq."
Meanwhile, Iran’s regional influence has taken a beating elsewhere. Since its Palestinian ally Hamas launched the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, the Middle East’s geopolitical order has been upended. Israeli forces have killed the leadership of Iran’s top ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, rebels in Syria have toppled the Iran-backed Assad regime, and a brief war between Israel and Iran in June brought U.S. warplanes into the fray. Iran’s prized "axis of resistance"—its network of allied militias—has unraveled almost everywhere except Iraq, where these groups remain armed and politically powerful.
Even as Iraq’s leaders tout stability and economic growth—fueled by high oil prices and state-funded development projects—many voters feel disillusioned. Some polls predict the lowest turnout in the country’s 20-year experiment with democracy. "Why should we vote? It’s just a rotating door of new names representing the same powers," said Mohammed Abbas, a 20-year-old mattress salesman in Baghdad. "Our elections are completely performative."
Elsewhere in the region, the shadow of Iran’s ambitions looms large. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar recently revealed that Israeli security services are "constantly" working to foil Iranian plots targeting diplomats worldwide. Speaking at the opening of Israel’s embassy in Tallinn, Estonia, Sa’ar referenced a recent attempt by Iran to assassinate Israel’s ambassador in Mexico—a plot reportedly orchestrated by Hasan Izadi of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Thanks to cooperation with Mexican security and law enforcement, the plot was "contained and does not pose a current threat," a U.S. official told JNS. Israel’s Foreign Affairs Ministry expressed gratitude to Mexico for thwarting the attack, underscoring the ongoing risks posed by Iran’s global reach.
As Iraq’s election results trickle in and coalition talks begin, the country stands at a crossroads. The outcome will not only determine the next government but also signal whether Iraq can chart an independent course—or whether its future will remain entangled in the ambitions of its powerful neighbors and their proxies.
