In the wake of the dramatic U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities this past June, the landscape of Iran’s nuclear ambitions has shifted in ways both visible and shrouded in secrecy. While President Trump declared in June that "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated," recent satellite imagery and expert analysis suggest the story is far from over. According to NPR and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), the three main sites targeted—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—remain largely dormant, but Iran’s nuclear program is hardly at a standstill.
Joseph Rodgers, a deputy director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), has been closely monitoring the aftermath. "The Iranian nuclear program appears to be in limbo without clear leadership guidance. We see some activity building new nuclear facilities nearby the facilities that the U.S. destroyed," Rodgers told NPR. The most notable site of renewed activity is Pickaxe Mountain, located about a mile south of Natanz. Construction at this site, initially declared in 2020 as a centrifuge assembly facility, has surged since the June strikes, raising new questions about Iran’s intentions.
Satellite images analyzed by CSIS confirm that while little to no recovery is happening at the bombed sites—debris still blocks roads at Fordow and Isfahan—there is a flurry of construction at Pickaxe Mountain. Rodgers explained to RFE/RL, "What we do see is just south of Natanz, the construction of an underground facility. And it appears that in the aftermath of the June strikes, construction has really stepped up at this other facility that is called Pickaxe Mountain." The images reveal not only extensive mining and tunneling into the mountain but also the erection of a significant security perimeter. The intent? To guard against espionage, particularly from Israeli and Western intelligence agencies, which have demonstrated their reach in the past.
Security at Pickaxe Mountain is more than just fences and guards. The facility’s tunnel entrances are fortified and curved, a design meant to deflect the force of conventional bunker-busting munitions. "At the tunnel entrances to Pickaxe Mountain, we see fortified entrances that actually have a curve in them. And that curve can prevent, if somebody tries to collapse the tunnel or explode munitions just outside of the tunnel entrance, then the curve will force the blast to hit a wall instead of going deep inside of the mountain with the full explosive force of the shockwave," Rodgers elaborated for RFE/RL. These are classic signatures of a military site expecting, and preparing for, attack.
The renewed activity at Pickaxe Mountain comes at a time when Iran’s nuclear program is operating under a new veil of secrecy. The 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), expired in October 2025, ending international oversight. Iran, which maintains it has no intention of weaponizing its nuclear program, now operates with what analysts call "strategic opacity." According to RFE/RL, Tehran declared an end to international inspections after the deal’s expiration, further complicating the global community’s ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear activities.
Despite Iran’s official insistence that Pickaxe Mountain is merely a centrifuge assembly site, the expansion and deepening of underground facilities have led to speculation that the site’s purpose may be evolving. "Since the June strikes, we've seen a lot more tunneling into the facility. And that might indicate that Iran has decided to shift additional activities deeper underground," Rodgers said. Some experts worry that activities previously conducted at Isfahan—such as converting yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas, a precursor for uranium enrichment—could now be moving to Pickaxe Mountain. The most concerning scenario, as Rodgers suggested, would be the development of an undeclared uranium enrichment site, which would violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and trigger severe international backlash.
Iran’s reluctance to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors access to Pickaxe Mountain only heightens these concerns. Under the now-defunct JCPOA, Iran was required to grant such access, but repeated requests from the IAEA have been denied. Interestingly, Iran’s president recently indicated, when pressed by a Washington Post report, that IAEA inspectors should be allowed to visit Pickaxe Mountain. However, as RFE/RL notes, this may have been political posturing rather than a genuine policy shift. Any future negotiations between Iran and the IAEA will almost certainly hinge on access to this enigmatic site.
Meanwhile, the human toll of the U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran’s nuclear program has been significant. Israeli Ambassador Zarka claimed that about 14 of Iran’s top nuclear scientists were assassinated in the aftermath of the strikes. "Rebuilding buildings is hard. It's equally as hard to rebuild the social capital required for that level of deep expertise," Rodgers told NPR. The strikes also prompted a sweeping crackdown within Iran: more than 700 individuals have reportedly been arrested on suspicion of collaborating with Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. This climate of fear and suspicion, Rodgers says, "has serious implications for the efficacy of any future program. If everyone is sort of looking around their back and deeply skeptical, then it's really hard to sort of sit down and get to work."
The effectiveness of the Israeli and U.S. strikes, according to both NPR and RFE/RL, was due in large part to the deep penetration of Iranian networks by Mossad and U.S. intelligence. This intelligence coup not only targeted physical infrastructure but also the human capital essential to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
As Iran recalibrates its nuclear strategy, it faces a series of difficult choices. Building new enrichment facilities, especially undeclared ones, would be a clear breach of the NPT and would likely provoke swift retaliation from the U.S. and Israel. "If Iran decides to pursue enrichment at an undeclared level and the United States finds out, then the likelihood of US retaliation is very high," Rodgers cautioned. Historically, few countries have attempted such clandestine enrichment programs, and those efforts have generally ended in failure or disaster.
The world is now watching Pickaxe Mountain. Will it remain a centrifuge assembly plant, as Iran claims? Or will it become the centerpiece of a renewed, secretive push toward uranium enrichment? The answers may well shape not just the future of Iran’s nuclear program but also the stability of the Middle East and the broader global security landscape.
For now, the dust at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan has yet to settle, both literally and figuratively. But as construction booms at Pickaxe Mountain and international oversight fades, the next chapter in Iran’s nuclear saga is already being written—deep underground and out of sight.