In a region long defined by shifting alliances and simmering rivalries, Iran now finds itself at the center of one of the most consequential upheavals in its modern history. The events of June 2025—marked by a sudden escalation of hostilities with Israel and the United States—have left the Islamic Republic both emboldened by its military response and deeply exposed by the unraveling of its traditional alliances and the return of harsh international sanctions.
It all began on June 13, when Israel launched what Iranian officials described as an unlawful act of aggression, assassinating senior commanders, nuclear scientists, and ordinary citizens inside Iran. According to MNA/PressTV, Iran responded within 24 hours, unleashing a barrage of missiles and drones that would soon expand into a campaign dubbed True Promise III. The response, Iranian authorities insist, was both swift and devastating. Brigadier General Fathollah Jafari asserted, “The harm it suffered was far greater than the official accounts; its operational capacity and infrastructure were destroyed.”
The United States entered the fray on June 22, striking three Iranian nuclear sites in what Tehran and many international observers condemned as a blatant violation of international law. Iran’s retaliation was immediate: it targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American military facility in West Asia, framing the attack as an act of self-defense. The escalation rattled the region, with the Israeli government—facing mounting losses and international scrutiny—unilaterally accepting a truce deal on June 24.
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, addressed the nation in a televised speech on November 28, reflecting on the conflict’s aftermath. “In the 12-Day war, the Iranian nation undeniably defeated both the U.S. and the Zionist regime. They came and perpetrated malicious acts, took a beating, and left empty-handed. This was a defeat in the truest sense of the word,” he declared, as reported by Mehr News Agency. Khamenei further dismissed reports of secret Iranian messages to the U.S. as “total lies,” emphasizing, “The Islamic Republic demonstrated that it is a center of determination and power, capable of making decisions and standing firmly without fear of outside noise.”
Yet, beneath the triumphal rhetoric, the reality for Iran is far more complex. According to RFI, Iran’s regional alliances are crumbling, Western sanctions have returned in force, and its rivals—particularly Israel and the Gulf Arab states—are consolidating their positions. The US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, followed by the Abraham Accords that brought Arab states like Saudi Arabia closer to Israel, left Tehran increasingly isolated. Bernard Hourcade, an Iran specialist at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research, noted, “They had lost the battle. They were not able to reverse course, since the Europeans did not stand up to the American decision.”
This sense of isolation was compounded by a series of blows to Iran’s regional network. Israeli strikes over the past two years have weakened Hezbollah, Iran’s main ally in Lebanon, and devastated Hamas’s leadership and arsenal. The fall of Syrian President Bashar al Assad in December 2024—replaced by a Western-backed successor—severed a vital logistical link for Tehran. Only the Houthis in Yemen remain a fully intact ally, having reached a ceasefire with the US in May 2025. Iraq, with its 20 Shia militias and roughly 235,000 fighters loyal to Tehran, remains Iran’s strongest foothold. The recent Iraqi legislative elections, which saw the pro-Iranian Coordination Framework win the most seats, offered a rare moment of relief for the embattled regime.
The June war itself was marked by unprecedented damage on both sides. Data analyzed by Oregon State University researchers revealed that Iranian missiles struck five Israeli military sites, including an intelligence center and a logistics base. The Telegraph reported that six missiles hit targets across northern, central, and southern Israel, with radar imagery confirming blast damage. Israeli officials, under strict military censorship, did not disclose these hits, but the financial toll was impossible to hide. Ynet quoted the Israeli Tax Authority as saying that more than 53,599 damage claims were filed in just 12 days, with direct damage estimated at no less than NIS 4 billion ($1.1 billion) and indirect losses expected to reach several billion more. The Weizmann Institute of Science, closely linked to Mossad, suffered heavy damage, and businesses across Israel shut down for extended periods.
Inside Iran, the cost was also steep. From June 21 to 22, Israeli and US strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure, killing more than 1,000 Iranians, including soldiers, scientists, and civilians. According to RFI, no regional ally came to Tehran’s aid during these attacks. Khamenei acknowledged the losses, stating, “Of course, we also suffered losses. As is the nature of war, we lost dear lives. But the Islamic Republic demonstrated that it is a center of determination and power, capable of making decisions and standing firmly without fear of outside noise. Moreover, the material losses inflicted on the invading enemy were far greater than ours.”
The aftermath of the conflict left Iran’s position in the region deeply precarious. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran lost track of 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent—dangerously close to weapons-grade. Indirect nuclear talks with the US, scheduled to resume in Oman on June 13, were derailed by the Israeli attack. European sanctions have returned, and Iran’s economic lifelines now depend heavily on limited partnerships with China and Russia. A $400 billion agreement with China, signed in 2021, has helped Tehran bypass some sanctions, but Beijing’s support remains largely economic, not military. As The Diplomat observed, China seeks to “profit from Iran’s vulnerability, but measured enough to avoid provoking its rivals.”
Meanwhile, Arab states have condemned the Israeli strikes and the ongoing violence in Gaza, with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council denouncing attacks on sovereign states. Yet, as Hourcade pointed out, “all the countries in the region denounced the Israeli attack against a sovereign country,” but many now see Israel as the dominant political and military force. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates are pushing for limits on Israeli influence and a lasting settlement in Gaza, but their support for Iran remains tepid at best.
Public opinion in Israel has hardened. A June 2025 poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 70 percent of Israelis supported the attack on Iran, with support rising to 82 percent among Jewish Israelis. Among Arab citizens of Israel, however, 65 percent opposed the strikes—highlighting the deep divisions within Israeli society itself.
Inside Iran, Khamenei used his speech to rally the nation around the Basij volunteer forces, calling them “a source of guidance and strength for any nation” and urging officials to “preserve and strengthen national unity.” He emphasized, “There are differences among various social groups and political factions, but what matters is that, just like during the 12-Day War, we remain united in the face of the enemy. This solidarity is a key factor in national strength.”
As Iran tries to chart a path forward, its leaders are projecting resolve and resilience. But the events of 2025 have exposed the limits of its power and the fragility of its regional position. The Islamic Republic’s future may depend less on military might and more on its ability to adapt to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.