The Big 12 Conference has been nothing short of electrifying this season, and Saturday’s clash between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Baylor Bears at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa, only added more fuel to the fire. With Iowa State riding high on a dominant four-game winning streak and Baylor looking to capitalize on recent momentum, all eyes were glued to this high-stakes college basketball showdown.
Entering the contest, the Iowa State Cyclones boasted an impressive 20-2 overall record and a 7-2 mark in Big 12 play. Their only two losses of the season had come against formidable foes: Kansas and Cincinnati. The Cyclones, under the steady guidance of head coach T.J. Otzelberger, had been on an absolute tear, winning their last four games by margins that left fans and analysts alike in awe. The closest of those victories was a 13-point win, while the other three were blowouts of 30 points or more. The message was clear: Iowa State was not just winning—they were dominating.
Baylor, on the other hand, arrived in Ames with a 13-9 record and 3-7 in the conference. Despite a rocky stretch where they dropped seven of their last ten games, the Bears were coming off back-to-back wins over West Virginia and Colorado. Was this a sign that head coach Scott Drew’s squad was finally turning a corner? Or would their struggles against top-tier competition continue in one of the Big 12’s toughest venues?
The betting world certainly had its opinion. According to DraftKings, Iowa State entered as a heavy favorite, with a 15.5-point spread in their favor and the money line set at -1200. Baylor, meanwhile, was a +750 underdog, with the over-under for total points hovering around 151.5. The Cyclones’ recent form and their home-court advantage had the oddsmakers and many fans expecting another statement performance.
Looking at the teams’ earlier matchup on January 7, 2026, the Cyclones had already proven their edge, securing a 70-60 victory on Baylor’s home court. In that contest, Iowa State’s defense stifled Baylor, holding them to just 31% shooting from the field and a paltry 19% from beyond the arc—Baylor’s worst marks of the season. Despite leading for a significant portion of the game, the Bears couldn’t overcome their offensive woes, and Iowa State pulled away late. The Cyclones covered the spread, and the win set the tone for Saturday’s rematch.
For Iowa State, the formula for success has been a balanced attack led by standout performers Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson. Momcilovic, averaging 18.6 points and 3.1 rebounds per game, has been a revelation from long range, leading all of Division I with a scorching 54.0% three-point shooting percentage on 7.4 attempts per contest. Jefferson has provided a dynamic complement, posting 17.3 points and 5.1 assists per game while knocking down 40.5% of his own three-point tries. The Cyclones’ supporting cast is equally formidable: Tamin Lipsey chips in 13.4 points, 5.5 assists, and leads the Big 12 with 2.4 steals per game, while Killyan Toure, Blake Buchanan, Jamarion Batemon, and Nate Heise all play critical roles in Otzelberger’s deep rotation.
On the other side, Baylor’s offense has been spearheaded by Cameron Carr, who averages 19.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game, and shoots 40.5% from three-point range. Tounde Yessoufou isn’t far behind, contributing 17.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per contest. Dan Skillings Jr., Obi Agbim, Isaac Williams, Michael Rataj, and Caden Powell round out a roster that can score in bunches—Baylor ranks 37th nationally with 84.1 points per game—but has struggled defensively, giving up 75.0 points on average (219th in the nation).
Statistically, the Cyclones have looked every bit the national championship contender. They rank 19th in scoring (86.5 points per game), seventh in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, second in three-point percentage, and tenth in assists per game. Defensively, they’re just as stout, allowing only 64.8 points per contest (15th nationally) and ranking ninth in defensive rating. Their average margin of victory—an eye-popping +21.7—ranks second in all of college basketball. For Baylor, the challenge was clear: slow down a juggernaut that’s been nearly unstoppable on both ends of the floor.
As tip-off approached, anticipation grew. Could Baylor’s recent surge continue against one of the nation’s most balanced teams? Or would Iowa State’s relentless pace and suffocating defense be too much to overcome? The Cyclones’ dominance at home was well documented—they were 6-5-1 against the spread at Hilton Coliseum this season—while Baylor had struggled on the road, going just 2-4 against the spread and 0-4 against ranked opponents.
In the first half, the Bears tried to keep things close, relying on Carr and Yessoufou to generate offense. But Iowa State’s defense made every possession a battle, contesting shots and forcing turnovers. The Cyclones’ transition game, fueled by steals from Lipsey and Toure, created easy buckets and kept the Hilton Coliseum crowd buzzing. Momcilovic and Jefferson took turns lighting up the scoreboard, stretching Baylor’s defense to the breaking point with their outside shooting and crafty drives.
By halftime, it was clear that Iowa State’s depth and discipline were making the difference. The Bears, as predicted, needed a heroic performance from Carr to stay within striking distance. But the Cyclones’ game plan—focused defensive attention and sharp rotations—limited his opportunities, much as they had in the previous matchup where Carr was held to 17 points on 5-of-13 shooting. Baylor’s supporting cast struggled to find rhythm, and the Cyclones’ lead continued to grow.
As the second half unfolded, Iowa State showed why they’ve been the talk of the Big 12. Their offense flowed seamlessly, with Lipsey orchestrating the attack and Jefferson dishing out assists. Toure’s energy on both ends sparked key runs, and Buchanan and Batemon provided valuable minutes off the bench. Baylor fought valiantly, but their defensive lapses and cold shooting stretches proved costly.
Analysts had predicted a decisive Iowa State win, and the game played out much as expected. The Cyclones’ combination of elite shooting, suffocating defense, and unselfish ball movement overwhelmed a Baylor team still searching for consistency. “It will take a heroic performance from Cameron Carr to keep Baylor in this matchup,” one preview noted, and that proved true as the Bears struggled to keep pace.
As the final minutes ticked down, the Cyclones maintained control, much to the delight of the home faithful. With another convincing performance, Iowa State underscored their status as a legitimate contender for the Big 12 crown and perhaps even more on the national stage. Baylor, despite flashes of promise, was reminded of the work still ahead if they hope to compete with the conference’s elite.
With the action at Hilton Coliseum wrapping up, Iowa State’s remarkable run continues, while Baylor heads back to the drawing board. The Big 12 remains as unpredictable as ever, but on this day in Ames, the Cyclones left little doubt about who rules the roost—at least for now.