The Iowa women’s basketball team enters the final game of its 2025-26 regular season with a familiar air of confidence, but not without a few clouds on the horizon. On Sunday, March 1, 2026, the No. 9 Hawkeyes (23-5, 14-3 Big Ten) face off against the Wisconsin Badgers (13-15, 5-12 Big Ten) at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin. This Big Ten showdown, scheduled for a 3:00 PM ET tip-off, carries more than just the weight of rivalry—it’s the last stop before postseason play, and Iowa’s looking to extend a jaw-dropping streak.
Let’s talk history for a moment. Iowa has absolutely dominated Wisconsin in women’s basketball, stringing together an incredible 31 straight wins over the Badgers. If that’s not impressive enough, consider this: the last eight meetings have all been decided by 15 points or more in Iowa’s favor. It’s a stretch of superiority that speaks volumes about the Hawkeyes’ consistency and the program’s ability to reload year after year.
But this time, the Hawkeyes will be tested in a new way. Senior forward Hannah Stuelke, one of Iowa’s biggest stars and a consistent force on both ends of the court, will be sidelined for the regular-season finale. Stuelke’s absence is a direct result of a right-elbow injury she picked up during Iowa’s gritty 82-78 victory over Illinois on February 27. She briefly left that contest but returned to finish with a robust stat line: 18 points, five rebounds, four assists, and two steals on 7-of-13 shooting. Her toughness was on full display, but the injury proved too much to ignore in the days that followed.
Head coach Jan Jensen addressed Stuelke’s status after the Illinois win, offering insight into the decision to rest her star forward. "It was pretty sore, and we subbed her a little bit. I think there was just a lot of emotion, and I don't know because she played through some adrenaline in Nebraska with her little shoulder incident. So now, it was pretty ginger in the locker room, but I don't foresee anything that's season-altering, but it is pretty sore," Jensen explained. The message is clear: Stuelke’s injury is not expected to derail Iowa’s postseason, but with the Big Ten Tournament and the 2026 NCAA Tournament looming, the coaching staff is taking no chances.
Stuelke’s impact this season can’t be overstated. Averaging 13.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game on a sizzling 54.4% shooting, the Cedar Rapids native has started all 27 games she’s played. Her presence in the paint and ability to stretch defenses have been vital to the Hawkeyes’ offensive flow. Without her, Iowa’s rotation will need to adapt, and other players will be called upon to step up in a big way.
The injury bug hasn’t stopped with Stuelke. Iowa is also without sophomore wing Emely Rodriguez, who hasn’t seen action since the Hawkeyes’ win over Miami back on November 22, 2025. Rodriguez’s absence has forced the coaching staff to dig deeper into the bench, testing the team’s depth and resilience throughout the campaign.
Despite these setbacks, the oddsmakers and predictive models remain bullish on Iowa’s chances against Wisconsin. According to Dimers’ advanced simulations, which ran the matchup 10,000 times, Iowa is given a whopping 94% chance to emerge victorious. The betting odds reflect this confidence, with Iowa favored by 16.5 points and a moneyline of -2083 compared to Wisconsin’s +1100. The over/under for the contest is set at 144.5 points, and the model gives a slight edge (52%) to the over hitting—a nod to both teams’ offensive capabilities and Iowa’s fast-paced style of play.
So, what does this all mean for Sunday’s clash in Madison? For Iowa, it’s a chance to close out the regular season on a high note, even with adversity knocking at the door. The Hawkeyes have built their success on balanced scoring, tough defense, and a relentless approach to every possession. While Stuelke’s absence creates a noticeable void, the program’s culture and depth have been forged in moments just like this.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, enters as a clear underdog. The Badgers have struggled in conference play, sitting at 5-12 in the Big Ten, and have not managed to break through against Iowa in over a decade. Still, rivalry games have a way of defying expectations, and the Kohl Center crowd will be eager to witness a potential upset. Can Wisconsin capitalize on Iowa’s missing firepower? Or will the Hawkeyes’ system and experience prove too much once again?
Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see how Iowa adapts its game plan. Expect increased roles for the supporting cast, with players like junior guard and sophomore forward (names not provided in the source material) likely to shoulder more responsibility. The coaching staff’s adjustments—whether it’s tweaking defensive schemes or finding new ways to generate offense—will be a storyline to follow as the game unfolds.
In the broader context, this matchup serves as a final tune-up before the high-stakes environment of the Big Ten Tournament and, soon after, the NCAA Tournament. Iowa’s record of 23-5 overall and 14-3 in conference play positions them as a legitimate contender on the national stage. The focus now shifts to maintaining momentum, preserving health, and sharpening execution for the challenges ahead.
For Wisconsin, the season has been a mixed bag, with flashes of promise overshadowed by inconsistency. A win over Iowa would be a statement, but even a competitive showing could provide a springboard into the offseason and future campaigns. The Badgers’ coaching staff will surely be emphasizing effort, discipline, and seizing the opportunity to snap a daunting losing streak.
As tip-off approaches, all eyes will be on the Kohl Center. Will Iowa’s depth and pedigree carry them through, or can Wisconsin flip the script and shock the Big Ten landscape? One thing’s for certain: the regular season is ending with plenty of intrigue, and the postseason drama is just around the corner.
With Hannah Stuelke sidelined and Emely Rodriguez still out, Iowa’s resilience will be put to the test against a Wisconsin team hungry to end a long drought. The Hawkeyes’ remarkable winning streak, the high-stakes implications for seeding, and the ever-present unpredictability of rivalry basketball make this a must-watch affair.
As the action gets underway in Madison, the outcome remains to be decided. But with history, odds, and recent form all favoring Iowa, the Hawkeyes look set to close their regular season with a statement—no matter who’s on the court.