India’s trade relationship with the United States has rarely been without its share of drama, but the past few months have seen the stakes raised on both sides. In November 2025, India’s merchandise exports surged to $38.1 billion, a 19.4% increase that marked a six-month high, according to data reported by The Times of India. This growth came despite the shadow of hefty US tariffs and a new diplomatic spat over rice exports, with President Donald Trump accusing India of “dumping” rice at unfairly low prices—an allegation India has swiftly and firmly denied.
This fresh round of trade tensions began when President Trump publicly claimed that India was selling rice in the American market at “very low prices,” suggesting the possibility of additional tariffs on Indian rice imports. The US administration’s stance, as reported by The Times of India and other outlets, appeared to be part of a broader protectionist policy aimed at shielding domestic producers. Yet Indian officials wasted no time in responding. Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal addressed the media, stating unequivocally, “We do not see a prima facie case of dumping,” and clarifying that the US had not initiated any anti-dumping investigation into India’s rice exports. Most of India’s shipments to the US, Agrawal explained, are premium basmati rice, which commands a higher price point than generic rice varieties.
Indeed, the numbers back up India’s position. For the financial year 2024-25, India is set to export 20.2 million metric tonnes of rice globally, with 335,554 tonnes shipped to the US—of which 274,213 tonnes are basmati rice. This premium product is prized for its aroma and long grains, and its higher price tags make the notion of dumping—selling below cost or domestic market price—seem misplaced. As BBC and The Times of India both noted, no anti-dumping investigations have been launched by the US as of mid-December 2025.
India’s dominance in the global rice market is nothing new. The country has long been the world’s largest rice exporter, and its agricultural exports, particularly in the basmati segment, have been a key driver of economic growth. The government maintains that its export policies are transparent, strictly adhere to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, and are designed to foster fair competition rather than distort markets through unfair pricing strategies. “India’s rice export practices are compliant with international standards,” a government spokesperson reiterated to BBC.
But rice isn’t the only commodity at the center of India-US trade tensions. November’s export boom came even as Indian exporters faced the headwinds of US tariffs, some as high as 50%, imposed earlier in August 2025 on a range of Indian goods—including textiles, chemicals, and seafood. Yet, as The Times of India reported, India’s exports to the US hit an estimated $7 billion in November, marking a 22.6% increase despite the tariffs. Shipments to China surged by a staggering 90% to $2.2 billion, making China India’s third-largest export destination for the month.
This robust performance, especially after a 12% export decline in October attributed to tariff impacts, surprised many market watchers. The trade deficit, which had ballooned to a record $41.68 billion in October, narrowed sharply to $24.6 billion in November—the lowest since June. Imports dipped by 2% to $62.7 billion, with gold imports falling by 59.15% to $4 billion and crude oil imports dropping 11.27% to $14.11 billion. According to ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar, the export rebound and import contraction resulted from supply chain normalization after holiday periods and reduced post-festival consumer demand.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal highlighted the resilience of Indian exporters, noting that several sectors—electronics, engineering, chemicals, and gems and jewellery—contributed to the export surge. “Despite the tariffs, we have been able to hold our exports and imports are also growing (38% to $5.3 billion), which is a good thing for India-US trade,” Agrawal told reporters. FIEO President S C Ralhan echoed this sentiment, saying, “Diversification of export markets, along with the continued resilience of several key sectors, has played a crucial role in supporting export growth. With sustained policy support, enhanced logistics efficiency, and access to competitive export financing, India’s exports are well-positioned to maintain this positive trajectory in the coming months.”
To further bolster exporters, the Indian government is rolling out a Rs 25,060-crore export promotion mission, with some elements scheduled for implementation the week of December 16, 2025. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal acknowledged that while this assistance may not fully offset the pain of US tariffs, it will provide essential liquidity support to exporters. “It will lessen the pain, not remove the pain; it will not solve their problems completely. But at the same time, we remain engaged with the US positively,” he said, emphasizing ongoing efforts to finalize trade agreements and ease bilateral tensions.
The diplomatic front has remained active as well. A high-level Indian delegation recently met with US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer in New Delhi to discuss the full spectrum of trade issues, including the rice dispute and the broader tariff regime. Both sides, according to official statements, expressed a commitment to constructive dialogue and the pursuit of a mutually beneficial trade agreement.
While the rice dumping allegations have drawn headlines, Indian officials are keen to point out that the US remains India’s primary export market. Between April and November 2025, the US consistently ranked as the top destination for Indian goods, despite the hurdles posed by tariffs and new regulatory challenges. Other major destinations during this period included the UAE, the Netherlands, China, the UK, Germany, Singapore, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and Hong Kong.
Market analysts have observed that Indian exporters are increasingly pursuing market diversification strategies—a move designed to reduce dependency on any single market and to weather the volatility of global trade policy shifts. Think tank GTRI noted that the November export surge was likely driven by higher shipments of tariff-exempt or less-affected items such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products.
Ultimately, India’s firm rejection of the rice dumping allegations and its robust export performance in the face of protectionist measures underscore a broader trend: the country’s export sector is showing remarkable adaptability and resilience. As trade negotiations continue and new export promotion measures take effect, India’s exporters are navigating a tricky global landscape with a mix of pragmatism, diversification, and policy support.
The coming months will test whether India can sustain this momentum, but for now, its exporters and officials alike are determined to keep the country’s trade engines running—tariffs, accusations, and all.
