In a week marked by diplomatic maneuvering and public claims, the United States and India have found themselves at the center of a high-stakes dispute over Russian oil imports, tariffs, and the future of their strategic partnership. The latest developments highlight both the complexity of global energy politics and the delicate dance of public messaging between two of the world’s largest democracies.
On Wednesday, October 15, 2025, President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had "assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia." Trump, who has made isolating Russia economically a central plank of his foreign policy since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, presented this as a breakthrough in efforts to dry up the Kremlin’s revenue streams. "He's not buying his oil from Russia. It's started—you know, you can't do it immediately, it's a little bit of a process—but the process is going to be over with soon," Trump said, adding, "All we want from President Putin is to stop killing Ukrainians and stop killing Russians, 'cause he's killing a lot of Russians," as quoted in Newsweek.
Yet, within hours, India’s response cast doubt on the American president’s narrative. On Thursday, October 16, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs released a statement that avoided directly confirming Trump’s claim. Instead, spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized, "It has been our consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario. Our import policies are guided entirely by this objective." When pressed by reporters, Jaiswal said he was "not aware of any conversation between the two leaders" on the previous day, as reported by the BBC and The New York Times. The ambiguity of India’s response left observers and industry insiders wondering whether a deal had truly been struck, or if the public claims were more about leverage than reality.
This episode comes at a fraught moment in US-India relations. In August 2025, the Trump administration doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing India’s continued purchases of Russian crude oil. According to Reuters, 25% of the tariff was specifically linked to India’s procurement of Russian oil. US negotiators have made it clear that a reduction in Russian oil imports is a precondition for lowering tariffs and finalizing a broader trade agreement.
Despite the pressure, Indian officials have been careful not to publicly concede to American demands. Instead, they have highlighted their efforts to diversify energy sources and maintain stable prices for consumers. During the six months ending September 2025, India’s Russian crude imports averaged 1.75 million barrels per day—about 36% of total oil imports, down from 40% the previous year, according to government statistics cited by Reuters. Meanwhile, imports of US crude rose by 6.8% year-on-year, reaching roughly 213,000 barrels per day, or 4.3% of total imports. Middle Eastern oil’s share also increased, reaching 45% from 42% in the same period.
India’s balancing act is not just about economics. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, India has emerged as a major customer for Russian energy, second only to China. This relationship has allowed Moscow to offset lost sales to Europe and maintain critical revenue streams. According to the UK government, India’s Nayara Energy Limited imported 100 million barrels of Russian crude worth more than $5 billion in 2024 alone, a figure highlighted as London announced new sanctions targeting the refinery for facilitating Russian oil exports.
For its part, New Delhi has repeatedly defended its approach. "Ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad-basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions," Jaiswal said in a statement reported by Newsweek. The government has also pointed to the hypocrisy of Western criticism, noting that European Union countries continue to import Russian energy, albeit at reduced levels, and that the US itself still imports low-enriched uranium from Russia.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, has made no secret of its desire to pressure India into compliance. White House officials told Reuters that Indian refiners are "already cutting Russian oil imports by 50%" following productive trade talks. However, Indian industry sources told Reuters that refiners have not received any official directive from the government and that an immediate halt would be problematic. Transitioning to alternative sources could push up global oil prices and lead to inflation—a risk that Indian policymakers are keenly aware of.
The diplomatic standoff has played out against a backdrop of broader tensions. The relationship between Modi and Trump, once touted as a close personal bond, has grown more complicated during Trump’s second term. Earlier in 2025, a dispute erupted after Trump claimed to have brokered a cease-fire between India and Pakistan—a claim New Delhi firmly denied. Any suggestion that Modi is bowing to US pressure risks undermining his strongman image at home, making public concessions politically perilous.
Critics in India have not been shy about voicing their skepticism. Brahma Chellaney, a professor at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "Given Trump’s well-honed talent for inventing ‘facts,’ his claim that Modi ‘assured’ him India won’t buy Russian oil is rich. He hasn’t even managed to stop Europe from swelling Russia's coffers through its energy purchases. Yet we’re to believe he can dictate India’s oil policy?" Shama Mohamed, spokesperson for the All India Congress Committee, added: "Why is a major policy decision of India being announced by the US President?"
Within the Indian government and business community, the US president’s public statements have reportedly caused surprise and even frustration. Three executives at state-owned refiners told Bloomberg, on condition of anonymity, that they had not been briefed by the government about any new policy. Some importers considered a temporary pause in Russian purchases, but most are waiting for clearer guidance from New Delhi.
As the two sides resume trade negotiations in Washington, the stakes remain high. S. Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, acknowledged the challenges but expressed hope for resolution. "There are problems, there are issues, nobody is in denial of it. Those issues need to be negotiated and discussed and resolved, which is exactly what we are trying to do," he said at a recent gathering, as reported by The New York Times.
Russia, for its part, has chosen to remain on the sidelines of the war of words, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov telling the state news agency Tass that Moscow would be "guided by the official statements" from its trading partners. The message was clear: until New Delhi issues a definitive policy directive, Russian oil will keep flowing to India.
For now, the situation remains fluid. While Indian refiners are reportedly reducing Russian oil imports, the government’s official position is one of strategic ambiguity—balancing domestic priorities, international pressure, and the realities of global energy markets. The coming weeks will reveal whether quiet diplomacy can bridge the gap between public posturing and private negotiation, or if the world’s largest democracy will chart its own course, regardless of Washington’s wishes.