In a diplomatic balancing act that has drawn global attention, India is navigating mounting pressure from the United States to curb its purchases of Russian oil, even as it seeks to maintain strategic autonomy and secure the best deals for its citizens. The latest round of negotiations and public statements has left the world watching closely: will India pivot away from Russian crude, or continue to chart its own course?
The issue burst into the spotlight on October 16, 2025, when U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him India would stop buying Russian oil within a short period of time. "There will be no oil. He’s not buying oil," Trump declared, adding that the process had started, but acknowledging, "He can’t do it immediately. It’s a little bit of a process, but the process is gonna be over soon." According to the Associated Press, Trump’s remarks were part of a broader campaign to pressure Moscow—using oil revenue as leverage to end the war in Ukraine.
But in New Delhi, the official response was far more circumspect. India’s foreign ministry did not directly address Trump’s comments. Instead, spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized, "India is a significant importer of oil and gas. It has been our consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario. Our import policies are guided entirely by this objective." As reported by Oilprice.com and the Associated Press, Jaiswal reiterated the government’s focus on stable energy prices and securing supplies, underlining that diversification remains central to India’s energy strategy.
This divergence between U.S. claims and India’s official position has left analysts parsing every statement. According to Reuters, a White House official asserted that Indian refiners were already cutting Russian oil imports by 50%. However, Indian industry sources quickly pushed back, saying no such cuts had been requested or observed for already booked November and December cargoes. "Any potential cuts could be shown in volumes for December and January crude imports as the refiners have already booked the cargo loadings for November and part of the loadings for December," industry insiders told Reuters on October 17, 2025.
The numbers tell a nuanced story. Data from Kpler cited by Indian Express showed that India’s Russian oil imports in September 2025 declined by about 5% from August, reaching 1.60 million barrels per day (bpd). Yet, as of October 10, imports had actually risen to an average of 1.81 million bpd, higher than the previous three months. Russian crude continues to make up about one-third of all oil arrivals in India, maintaining a dominant share despite the diplomatic crossfire.
What’s driving these numbers? Industry sources point to economics, not geopolitics. The slight dip in Russian imports appears to be tied more to rising freight costs and narrowing discounts than U.S. pressure. As the world’s third-largest crude importer, India relies on imports for around 88% of its oil needs, and discounted Russian barrels have been too attractive to ignore. Since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, Russia’s share in India’s oil imports has soared from less than 2% to a commanding position, displacing traditional West Asian suppliers.
Replacing Russian oil, however, is easier said than done. Public sector refiners in India have started to look at diversifying their sources, with a stronger push toward West Asia, West Africa, North America, and Latin America. But as Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, told Indian Express, "A full stop on Russian crude would involve major logistical, political, and economic hurdles. At best, India might slowly scale down imports under pressure, but treating this as a done deal would be premature…Even if there’s an intent to reduce imports, it won’t happen overnight."
Indeed, the transition comes with significant challenges. Many of India’s oil deals are tied to long-term contracts and operational setups that cannot be unwound overnight. Alternatives from the Middle East or the U.S. are available but often come at higher costs and with logistical headaches. A sudden shift could tighten regional balances and push up global oil prices, affecting affordability for Indian consumers and refining economics.
Amid this, the U.S. and Gulf suppliers, especially Saudi Arabia, are vying for a bigger slice of India’s oil market. Business Standard reported on October 17, 2025, that U.S. crude is becoming increasingly competitive due to a global oversupply, making it more attractive for Indian refiners to boost American imports for economic reasons rather than political pressure. Saudi Arabia, India’s third-biggest supplier, is also maneuvering to maintain its relevance.
India’s approach appears to be a careful balancing act. While not openly defying Washington, New Delhi is signaling a willingness to buy more U.S. oil and natural gas, provided prices are competitive. Trade Secretary Rajesh Agarwal said India currently buys $12–13 billion worth of crude and gas from the U.S. each year, with potential to nearly double that without disrupting domestic refining. "In discussions we are in, we have indicated very positively that India as a country would like to diversify its portfolio as far as energy imports are concerned. That’s the best strategy for a big buyer like India," Agarwal explained, as reported by the Associated Press.
Meanwhile, India is also engaged in sensitive trade negotiations with the U.S., aiming to finalize a bilateral deal and reduce steep tariff rates. This adds another layer of complexity to the oil diplomacy. As Bloomberg noted, India is striving to keep both Washington and Moscow on side, seeking to clinch a trade pact with Trump while not alienating Russia, a longstanding strategic partner.
Despite the high-profile statements and diplomatic maneuvering, the ground reality remains: India has not issued any directive to refiners to cut Russian imports as of mid-October 2025. Decisions by public sector refiners continue to be guided by economic and commercial considerations, not political diktats. Private sector refiners have maintained strong imports from Russia, and any reduction in Russian crude purchases is expected to be gradual, contingent on market forces and evolving global dynamics.
In the words of an Indian official, "Ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions." For now, India’s energy calculus is driven by pragmatism, not pressure.
As the world’s fastest-growing oil consumer, India’s next steps will be watched closely. Whether it can successfully balance competing demands from Washington and Moscow—while keeping domestic interests front and center—remains to be seen. One thing is clear: in the global oil chessboard, India is determined to play by its own rules, at its own pace.