When Russian President Vladimir Putin touched down in New Delhi in early December 2025, the world’s gaze turned to India. The occasion: the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit and the Russia-India Business Forum—a two-day affair that saw leaders from both nations not just reaffirming their historic friendship, but laying out an ambitious new vision for the future. At the heart of the summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Putin unveiled the “Program for the Development of Strategic Areas of India–Russia Economic Cooperation until 2030,” a roadmap designed to transform the bilateral relationship from one rooted in hydrocarbons and defense to a multifaceted, modern alliance.
According to The Wire, the two countries aim to reach $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, a staggering leap from the record $68.7 billion achieved in fiscal year 2024-25. That figure itself represents a sevenfold increase over just five years, propelled largely by India’s voracious appetite for discounted Russian crude oil, coal, fertilizers, and defense equipment. Russian exports to India dominated the ledger, accounting for roughly $65 billion, while Indian exports—including pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, electronics, and chemicals—stood at a modest $4.9 billion. This imbalance, with a $60 billion trade surplus in Russia’s favor, is both the engine and the Achilles’ heel of the relationship.
Yet, as Putin and Modi signed a record 29 intergovernmental, institutional, and sector-specific agreements—spanning energy, trade, connectivity, labor mobility, high technology, and culture—the message was clear: both sides want more than just numbers. They want a partnership resilient to global shocks, sanctions, and the shifting sands of geopolitics.
Energy, unsurprisingly, remains the beating heart of the relationship. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, India sourced less than 2% of its oil from Russia. By 2023, thanks to steep Western discounts and the lure of energy security, Russia had become India’s largest oil supplier, providing more than 1.6 million barrels per day—nearly 40% of India’s total crude imports. This dependence, however, is now being tested. As reported by The Wire, new US sanctions have forced India to slash its Russian oil imports by 38% in value and 31% in volume as of October 2025 compared to the previous year. The upshot? The $100 billion trade target suddenly looks more daunting, and both countries are under pressure to diversify their economic ties.
The newly minted Programme 2030 attempts to address this head-on. Agreements signed at the summit include joint ventures in fertilizers (with Indian firms investing in Russian urea plants), critical minerals cooperation to secure supply chains for high-tech manufacturing and clean energy, and expanded trade in agro-products, chemicals, industrial goods, and pharmaceuticals. Russia will supply 5 to 5.5 million tons of fertilizer to India in 2025, becoming its leading supplier, while Indian pharmaceutical companies will collaborate with Russian partners to produce active pharmaceutical ingredients and vaccines in regions like Kaluga.
Beyond traditional sectors, the summit signaled a pivot toward high technology, space, and nuclear cooperation. Both sides are ramping up joint design, co-production, and technology transfer in defense manufacturing, including the SU-57 fighter and other military hardware. Space collaboration is also on the agenda, with discussions about engine technology, joint training, and even the potential for an Indian space station, especially as Russia plans its own orbital service station post-ISS.
Infrastructure and connectivity received a major boost, too. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Chennai–Vladivostok Maritime Corridor (CVMC), and the Northern Sea Route via Russia’s Arctic are all being developed to slash transport costs and shipping times. According to Russia’s Pivot To Asia, the INSTC’s eastern route has already seen a 56% drop in costs and a 70% surge in cargo volumes. The reciprocal logistics agreement (RELOS) signed just before the summit grants each country’s armed forces access to the other’s military facilities, extending India’s strategic reach from the Indo-Pacific to the Arctic and vice versa for Russia.
Financial architecture is evolving as well. Nearly 96% of India-Russia trade is now settled in rupees and rubles, with discussions underway to link national payment systems and central bank digital currencies. Russia’s Central Bank recently opened an office in India to coordinate these operations. This shift not only reduces reliance on the US dollar but also insulates both economies from external shocks and sanctions. It’s a move that could encourage more small and medium-sized enterprises to join the bilateral trade ecosystem, previously dominated by large corporations.
Labour mobility featured prominently in the new agreements. With Russia facing demographic challenges and India’s working-age population booming, the two countries agreed on frameworks for the temporary movement of skilled professionals. This will allow Indian engineers, healthcare workers, and IT specialists to fill gaps in Russia’s workforce, while remittances and diaspora ties grow. Both sides also agreed to 30-day, free e-tourist visas for each other’s citizens, a seemingly small gesture with the potential to boost tourism and people-to-people ties.
Underlying all these initiatives is the challenge of the persistent trade imbalance. As Russia pivots away from the West and deepens ties with non-Western partners, it remains to be seen if India can emulate China’s success in building an intra-industry trade relationship with Russia. While Russia-China trade reached $106.48 billion in the first half of 2025, with payments largely in national currencies and a more balanced exchange of goods, India-Russia trade remains heavily skewed. As The Wire notes, the sustainability of the relationship may hinge on India’s ability to offer more tradable manufactured goods and services, reducing its reliance on Russian energy imports.
The summit also set the stage for broader regional integration. The proposed India-Eurasian Economic Union Free Trade Agreement, now under negotiation, could open up new markets in Central Asia and beyond. However, Indian industrialists remain wary of foreign competition, and the success of any deal will depend on balancing export opportunities with domestic sensitivities.
Risks remain—logistical bottlenecks, regulatory hurdles, and external geopolitical pressures could all slow progress. But the direction is unmistakable. As Md. Rana, writing for Russia’s Pivot To Asia, put it, "The 2025 India–Russia summit and the Business Forum have done more than revive diplomatic goodwill: they have laid down a concrete and ambitious blueprint for long-term economic integration, diversification, and resilience."
The next few years will test whether this blueprint can deliver on its promise. For now, India and Russia have signaled a clear intent to move beyond the old script, betting on a partnership that is expansive, future-oriented, and, perhaps most importantly, built to weather the storms of a rapidly changing world.
