In the simmering cauldron of South Asian security, the summer of 2025 has brought a new edge to an already volatile rivalry between India and Pakistan. Recent months have witnessed a rapid escalation in both the sophistication and frequency of missile and drone deployments, culminating in a four-day conflict in May and a high-profile Indian missile test in August. As both nations push technological boundaries, the region faces mounting risks of miscalculation—with global implications.
The May 2025 crisis marked a watershed moment: for the first time, both India and Pakistan deployed swarms of drones as kinetic platforms targeting each other’s military assets. According to reporting from regional security analysts, the conflict began on the night of May 7-8, when India launched 30 Israeli-made Kamikaze drones across the border. These drones had a clear mission—to suppress Pakistan’s air defense systems (SEAD), probe for weaknesses, and pinpoint the locations of camouflaged radars and missile batteries. The attack was not a one-off; it was followed by two more waves over the next several days.
Pakistan, for its part, claimed to have intercepted the majority of the incoming drones, demonstrating a rapid evolution in its counter-drone capabilities. Indian officials alleged that Pakistan retaliated by launching nearly 300 drones at Indian targets, though independent sources have yet to verify this figure. Regardless, the exchange underscored the growing reliance on unmanned systems—and the dangers they pose in a nuclear-armed standoff.
Experts warn that drone swarms are not just a new tool in the military arsenal; they may fundamentally change the nature of conflict. As described by security analysts, swarms can decoy air defenses, gather real-time intelligence, and execute precision strikes. The Russia-Ukraine conflict provided a recent example: in November 2024, Russia launched swarms of drones—50 to 60 percent of them decoys—under "Operation False Target," forcing Ukraine to expend valuable interceptors on fake threats and creating gaps for real attacks. The lesson, as analysts point out, is chilling: such tactics could easily be replicated in South Asia, where decision-makers may have only minutes to distinguish between a minor incursion and the opening salvo of a much larger assault.
"Drone swarms do not just supplement war; they redefine it," one regional expert noted. Their speed, mass deployment, and difficulty to track compress the window for response, making escalation more likely. In the May crisis, the accelerated tempo left little room for diplomacy or international mediation. It was only after Pakistan’s proportionate response—and a round of U.S.-brokered talks—that the two sides pulled back from the brink.
But the aftermath of the conflict has been anything but calm. In mid-August, Pakistan announced the creation of a new Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC), intended to plug gaps in its defensive posture exposed during the May skirmishes. Days later, on August 20, India test-fired its most advanced ballistic missile yet: the Agni-V. Launched from the Odisha coast on the Bay of Bengal, the Agni-V is a behemoth—17.5 meters long, 50,000 kilograms, capable of carrying over 1,000 kilograms of nuclear or conventional payload, and able to travel more than 5,000 kilometers at hypersonic speeds nearing 30,000 km per hour. It was the missile’s tenth test since 2012, but its timing was no accident: it came just ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.
While some in Islamabad saw the Agni-V test as a response to Pakistan’s recent moves, most experts believe the missile’s real target lies further north. "Agni-V is a nuclear-capable ballistic missile of 5,000km range, which India has been developing as part of its nuclear deterrence capability against China. It has no relevance to Pakistan," Manpreet Sethi, a senior fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies in New Delhi, told Al Jazeera. Christopher Clary, a political scientist at the University at Albany, concurred: "While the Agni-V might be usable against Pakistan, its primary mission would involve strikes on China."
India’s missile ambitions, however, do not end with Agni-V. The country is already working on Agni-VI, expected to exceed 10,000 kilometers in range and to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). Such MIRV-enabled missiles can strike several targets with a single launch, dramatically increasing their destructive potential. India also operates two nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs), with two more under construction, and is developing submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capabilities that could allow it to deploy up to 300 warheads at sea over the next decade, according to Mansoor Ahmed of the Australian National University.
Pakistan, meanwhile, is racing to keep pace. Its longest-range missile, the Shaheen-III, reaches 2,750 kilometers, while its MIRV-enabled Ababeel can strike up to 2,200 kilometers—making it the shortest-ranged MIRV system among nuclear-armed states. Unlike India, Pakistan lacks nuclear submarines or intercontinental-range missiles, but it has showcased new cruise missiles like the Fatah-4, with a 750-kilometer range and dual capability for nuclear or conventional warheads.
The missile race is not just about India and Pakistan. Some analysts argue that Islamabad’s ambitions extend beyond its neighbor. Ashley J Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggested, "Islamabad is building the capability to keep Israel—and even the US—in its range, in addition to India." The United States, for its part, has watched Pakistan’s missile program with increasing concern. In December 2024, Jon Finer, then a senior White House official, called Pakistan’s pursuit of advanced missile technology an "emerging threat" to the US, warning that continued progress could bring American targets within reach.
By contrast, Western powers have largely welcomed India’s missile advances. The US and its allies view New Delhi as a counterweight to Beijing in the Asia-Pacific, a view reflected in the 2008 Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver, which allowed India to engage in global nuclear trade without signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). "The US and European powers have viewed and encouraged India to act as a net security provider," said Ahmed, the Canberra-based academic. This support has effectively granted India de facto nuclear weapons status, further elevating its global standing.
Yet the rapid pace of technological change brings new dangers. Drone swarms and MIRV-enabled missiles compress the time available for leaders to make life-and-death decisions. The risk of miscalculation—already high in a region marked by mistrust and historical grievance—has only grown. To mitigate these dangers, experts urge renewed confidence-building measures, such as strengthening the hotline between the Director General Military Operations (DGMOs) of both countries and establishing transparent protocols for drone deployments along sensitive borders.
As the dust settles from a turbulent summer, one thing is clear: South Asia’s arms race is entering a new and perilous phase. The choices made by leaders in Delhi and Islamabad in the coming months will shape the region’s security—and perhaps the world’s—for years to come.