In the heart of South Asia, a high-stakes missile and nuclear drama is playing out with fresh urgency, drawing in not just regional rivals India and Pakistan but also the world’s major powers. Recent weeks have seen a series of provocative moves and sharp rhetoric, threatening to upend the fragile balance that has long defined the subcontinent’s security environment.
On August 29, 2025, India announced the successful test-firing of its Agni-V ballistic missile—a technological marvel capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads over 5,000 kilometers. According to Bol News, this 10th test since 2012 carried special significance. While many in the region focused on the timing—coming just a week after Pakistan launched its new Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC)—experts argue the real message was aimed not at Islamabad, but at Beijing. The Agni-V’s range stretches well beyond Pakistan’s borders, deep into Chinese territory, and its hypersonic speeds (nearing 30,000 km/h) make it one of the world’s fastest ballistic missiles. With a payload of over 1,000 kilograms, it extends India’s reach across Asia and even parts of Europe.
Manpreet Sethi of the Centre for Air Power Studies underscored the strategic calculus: “Agni-V is a nuclear-capable ballistic missile of 5,000km range, which India has been developing as part of its nuclear deterrence capability against China. It has no relevance to Pakistan.” This view is echoed by Christopher Clary of the University at Albany, who explained, “While the Agni-V might be usable against Pakistan, its primary mission would involve strikes on China. China’s east coast, where its most economically and politically important cities are situated, is hard to reach from India and requires long-range missiles.”
India’s ambitions don’t stop there. The country is developing the Agni-VI, expected to exceed 10,000 kilometers in range and equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs)—a capability already present in Agni-V. MIRVs allow a single missile to strike multiple targets, a leap in strategic sophistication that’s unmistakably aimed at China’s vast geography and hardened defenses. India is also methodically assembling a nuclear triad, with two nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in service and two more under construction, a move seen as vital for credible second-strike capability against a peer adversary.
Yet, as India looks eastward, Pakistan remains laser-focused on its neighbor to the south. The creation of the ARFC was prompted by vulnerabilities exposed during a brief four-day conflict in May 2025. Pakistan’s arsenal includes the Shaheen-III missile (range: 2,750 km) and the Ababeel, South Asia’s first MIRV-capable missile, albeit with a range of just 2,200 km. “Pakistan’s programme is entirely Indian-specific and defensive in nature, while India’s ambitions extend beyond the subcontinent,” said Tughral Yamin, a former Pakistani army brigadier. “India’s long-range systems are designed for global power projection, particularly vis-a-vis China.”
But the regional rivalry has taken a dangerous turn. In early August, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, during a private dinner in Tampa, Florida, reportedly issued nuclear threats and identified specific Indian economic targets. According to Reuters, Munir ominously warned that if Pakistan “goes down, it would take half the world down with it.” Even more provocatively, he singled out Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat—the world’s largest single-site refining complex—as a potential military target. This marked the first time a top Pakistani military leader publicly named a civilian economic asset in India as a target, escalating the rhetoric from strategic deterrence to economic intimidation.
Munir’s remarks, made in the presence of U.S. military officials, were met with immediate outrage in India and a notable silence from Washington. India’s Ministry of External Affairs quickly condemned the statements, with spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal declaring, “India has already made it clear that it will not give in to any nuclear blackmail. New Delhi will continue to take all steps necessary to safeguard its national security.” The ministry described Munir’s comments as “nuclear sabre-rattling” and irresponsible, expressing regret that such remarks were made from the soil of a friendly third country. The statement also warned the international community to draw its own conclusions about the integrity of Pakistan’s nuclear command and control, especially given the military’s close ties with terrorist groups.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office, in turn, insisted that “Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapon state with an elaborate command and control structure under full civilian control. It has always exercised discipline and restraint, while dealing with the issues of such importance.” Yet, as The Print India and Newsonair reported, Munir’s declaration—“We are a nuclear nation. If we think we are going down, we’ll take half the world down with us”—has reignited fears about the stability of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and the sanity of its strategic calculus. Indian officials have suggested that such aggressive posturing by Pakistan’s military elite often coincides with periods of increased U.S. support, hinting at internal political maneuvering within Pakistan as well.
The U.S. response has been notably muted. President Donald Trump has repeatedly praised Pakistan’s military leadership and supported trade deals, including Islamabad’s first imports of American crude oil. Historically, both the U.S. and China have viewed Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities as a counterweight to India, with China’s transfer of nuclear technology and missile systems to Pakistan going largely unchallenged by Washington. Mansoor Ahmed of the Australian National University noted, “The US and European powers have viewed and encouraged India to act as a net security provider,” while Pakistan’s similar ambitions have drawn criticism, including a 2024 warning from a former White House official about Islamabad’s pursuit of long-range missile capabilities.
These developments have left the global strategic community increasingly uneasy. The international response to India’s missile ambitions has been largely supportive, with the 2008 waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) allowing India to trade nuclear material globally, solidifying its status as a de facto nuclear power. In contrast, Pakistan’s posture is viewed as increasingly unpredictable, with its military elite emboldened by years of international legitimacy and strategic leniency.
China, for its part, has not publicly reacted to the Agni-V test, but Indian and Chinese strategic posturing continues to fuel mutual suspicion. Since the deadly 2020 border clash, India has accelerated its strategic infrastructure development in the Himalayas and intensified military collaboration with the U.S., Japan, and Australia as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—a move Beijing views as a containment strategy. India’s growing missile arsenal fits neatly into that narrative, serving as both a signal of capability and a diplomatic bargaining chip.
As India and Pakistan modernize and expand their missile arsenals, the underlying motivations diverge sharply. Pakistan’s missile programme remains focused on India, while New Delhi sets its sights on deterring a far more powerful and globally influential adversary: China. With the Agni-V test and the looming Agni-VI, India is carving out a place in the global strategic arena, where the shadow of China looms large and the risks of miscalculation grow ever more acute.