As the war in Gaza grinds into its second year, a new and perilous chapter is unfolding in Gaza City. With Israeli forces massing at the city’s gates and issuing evacuation orders, the fate of roughly one million residents hangs in the balance. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have begun a major force buildup, calling up 60,000 reservists and launching operations on the city’s outskirts, targeting what they describe as Hamas’s last remaining military and governing stronghold. Yet, the evacuation of civilians—a key precondition for the next phase of Israel’s offensive—has become a deadly contest of wills, propaganda, and survival, with civilians caught in the middle.
According to Kan News, Hamas is actively working to create what Israeli officials call an “Israeli legitimacy trap.” The group is reportedly using a mix of threats, media campaigns, and outright violence to prevent civilians from fleeing south. The aim, Israeli sources say, is to keep as many Gazans as possible in harm’s way, thereby increasing international pressure on Israel to halt its operations. “We want to go south, but Hamas is standing in the way. They tell people: ‘Go back home, there is no evacuation, go back, go back,’ and people disperse,” a Gaza resident told the IDF’s Coordination and Liaison Administration, as reported by Kan News. The resident described people sneaking through side streets, desperate to avoid Hamas checkpoints where, according to Israeli security officials, threats of execution are not uncommon.
Despite these obstacles, tens of thousands have managed to escape. Security officials estimate that about 80,000 Gazans—less than 10% of the city’s population—have successfully evacuated, with some bypassing Hamas checkpoints even before the IDF’s latest operations began. Still, this leaves roughly one million people in Gaza City, and the United Nations estimates that about 200,000 are expected to defy the evacuation orders entirely. The International Committee of the Red Cross has warned that the sudden evacuation of so many is simply “impossible to do safely.”
The IDF’s strategy for the coming weeks is clear. As outlined by Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, the IDF’s International Spokesperson, the military is preparing for a “gradual, carefully planned operation against Hamas terrorists.” Troops are already operating in neighborhoods like Zeitoun and Shejaiya, with warnings issued to civilians. “Gaza City, for years and throughout this war, has been a focal point for Hamas. There are places within Gaza City, some of the only places in the Gaza Strip, where we haven’t operated at all,” Shoshani explained. He emphasized that the city remains the group’s operational center, housing its last substantial tunnel networks and command infrastructure.
Defense Minister Israel Katz has set out Israel’s terms in stark fashion. Hamas, he said, must either accept Israel’s conditions for ending the war—including the release of all hostages and the group’s disarmament—or face the destruction of Gaza City, which he warned would become “a twin of Rafah and Beit Hanoun,” referencing areas where the IDF claims to have dismantled most of Hamas’s capabilities. Katz’s warning was unambiguous: “Soon, the gates of hell will open on the heads of Hamas’ murderers and rapists in Gaza – until they agree to Israel’s conditions for ending the war, primarily the release of all hostages and their disarmament. If they do not agree – Gaza, the capital of Hamas, will become Rafah and Beit Hanoun. Exactly as I promised – so it will be.”
Hamas, for its part, has called on residents to disobey the evacuation orders, setting up checkpoints and, according to Israeli officials, threatening those who attempt to flee. The group’s strategy, Israeli sources contend, is to use the civilian population as human shields and as leverage in the international arena. “Hamas will be attempting, and already is attempting, to block Gazans from moving south from Gaza City. They’re stopping them on the streets, they’re threatening them. They want to use them as a human shield,” Shoshani said.
The humanitarian situation is dire and growing worse. The IDF claims it is working with international partners to facilitate the evacuation and provide aid to those who have fled south. Shoshani detailed a recent “surge in humanitarian aid,” with an average of 300 trucks entering Gaza daily, two new food distribution centers established in the south (bringing the total to five), repairs to power lines serving desalination facilities capable of supplying water to almost a million people, and tens of thousands of tents brought in for shelter. Yet, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reported last month that half a million Gazans are “facing catastrophic conditions characterized by starvation, destitution, and death,” with Gaza City hit the hardest. The IPC warned that if conditions didn’t change dramatically, up to a third of Gaza’s population could experience famine.
Israel has vehemently rejected the IPC’s findings, accusing the organization of fabricating data and lowering the famine threshold to create a misleading narrative. “There is no famine in Gaza: over 100,000 aid trucks have entered, food is abundant, and prices have sharply dropped,” the Israeli Foreign Ministry insisted. Still, the United Nations found Gaza’s healthcare system in a “catastrophic” state in August, with no hospitals fully functioning and less than half partially functional. Israel maintains that Hamas uses public health infrastructure for military operations, complicating aid delivery and civilian protection.
The repeated evacuation orders, first issued in October 2023 and renewed as the IDF prepares for its latest offensive, have lost much of their effectiveness. Analysts note that the frequency of such orders, coupled with the widespread destruction of the strip, has made many residents skeptical that fleeing will bring safety. Many of Gaza’s remaining Christians, for example, have chosen to defy the evacuation orders, seeking refuge in churches like the Greek Orthodox Church of Saint Porphyrius and the Anglican St. Philip’s Church. The clergy have issued a joint statement declaring, “Leaving Gaza City and trying to flee to the south would be nothing less than a death sentence. For this reason, the clergy and nuns have decided to remain and continue to care for all those who will be in the compounds.”
Personal stories drive home the desperate choices facing civilians. “We came to the church because it feels like the only safe place left, a place where we can be together and find help. Its ties abroad give us some protection,” said Moussa Saad Ayyad, a Christian taking refuge in the Holy Family Church, to Al Jazeera. Maryam al-Omr, whose home was destroyed, vowed, “I will not leave here, even if it means dying. This church is my last home, and I will not abandon it.”
The cost of the conflict has been staggering. Gaza’s Health Ministry, overseen by Hamas, claims 64,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7, 2023, a figure Israel disputes, arguing that most casualties are Hamas fighters. Israel reports the loss of 456 soldiers in the ground offensive and 1,200 Israelis killed in the initial Hamas attack. As the war continues, Hamas’s leadership has been decimated, but new recruits and the group’s vast tunnel network allow it to regroup and mount attacks, prolonging the bloodshed.
With the IDF poised to enter Gaza City in force, the coming weeks are likely to bring more suffering for civilians, further international scrutiny, and, perhaps, a decisive moment in a war that has already cost too much. The fate of Gaza City’s residents—and the prospects for peace—remain uncertain, as both sides dig in for what may be the most consequential battle yet.