The Philippine political landscape is once again at a boiling point, as a series of dramatic legal and political maneuvers threaten to reshape the nation’s future. On December 23, 2025, the family of Kian delos Santos—whose 2017 killing became a symbol of the country’s bloody war on drugs—finally welcomed a Supreme Court ruling against the police officers responsible for his death. According to ABS-CBN, this decision came after eight long years of waiting, marking a rare moment of accountability in a saga that has haunted the country’s conscience.
But this is only the tip of the iceberg. Behind the headlines, a far more seismic shift is underway, one that could upend the very foundations of Philippine power. Back in late 2024, former Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio and political analyst Richard Heydarian publicly revealed their foreknowledge of the potential arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC). As Heydarian recounted in his column, he had traveled to The Hague in July 2024 to speak on the South China Sea disputes, but the event was abruptly canceled due to a security threat. It was during this trip that Heydarian gathered crucial information from trusted sources about Duterte’s looming legal troubles.
Despite being met with official denials and ridicule from Duterte’s supporters, Carpio and Heydarian’s warnings proved prescient. By March 2025, Duterte found himself detained at The Hague, where, as Heydarian noted, he would likely spend the rest of his life. The ICC’s move sent shockwaves through the Philippine political elite, signaling that even the most powerful could be held to account on the world stage.
The reverberations didn’t stop there. According to Heydarian’s sources, an official ICC arrest warrant is now pending against former police chief and current Senator Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa, one of the chief architects of Duterte’s drug war. The prospect of an incumbent senator being handed over to the international court has sparked both incredulity and mockery among Duterte loyalists, but insiders suggest it’s only a matter of time before operational details are ironed out and the arrest is carried out.
Even more explosive is the news that Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, another Duterte ally, could soon face ICC charges, along with several other key figures behind the drug war. As Heydarian reported, “Multiple sources with direct knowledge of the workings of the ICC... have told me that Sen. Christopher ‘Bong’ Go could be next, along with a number of other co-architects of Duterte’s deadly drug war.” This widening dragnet has injected a sense of urgency—and fear—into the Duterte camp, which remains popular, especially among the so-called “Solid South” and more illiberal sections of the electorate.
Meanwhile, the country’s Ombudsman, now led by a man who previously oversaw Duterte’s ICC arrest as justice secretary, is reviewing evidence of alleged corruption and abuse of power by Vice President Sara Duterte. During her tenure at the helm of the country’s best-funded department, Sara Duterte allegedly engaged in questionable activities, and similar investigations against other members of the Duterte family—who have long dominated one of the Philippines’ largest cities—may soon follow.
The stakes are rising rapidly. The opening months of 2026 could be marked by political volatility, with the besieged Dutertes likely to mount another attempt to unseat the Marcos administration. Heydarian observed, “The opening months of 2026 could present yet another cliff-hanger moment for Philippine politics as the besieged Dutertes would likely mount yet another attempt to unseat the Marcos administration. I have a hard time seeing the notorious dynasty going gently into the night.” The suspicious death of former Public Works and Highways Undersecretary Catalina Cabral—who reportedly had detailed knowledge of major, allegedly shady infrastructure projects during Duterte’s rule—has only heightened the sense of peril and intrigue swirling around the country’s political elite.
In this climate of uncertainty, a new force is emerging—one that could reshape the Philippine political order for years to come. This so-called “third force,” a liberal-progressive coalition, has consistently called for accountability while refusing to align with either pro-Duterte or radical destabilization factions. Their discipline and ideological clarity, Heydarian argues, must now translate into a robust strategy capable of winning the presidency and commanding the heights of government in 2028—or even sooner, should the political crisis deepen.
What would it take for this third force to succeed? Heydarian lays out three essential ingredients. First, the coalition must engage with state institutions, including the presidency, to defend the constitutional order. “You don’t have to be a fan of the Marcoses to protect the constitutional order,” he writes, emphasizing the need for principled engagement. Second, a two-pronged political strategy is required—one that mobilizes both core progressive supporters, who value good governance, and the vast ranks of unaffiliated voters, who are more concerned with economic security and law and order.
Finally, the third force must offer a clear, forward-looking vision that transcends the legacies of both the Dutertes and the Marcoses. It should present a “dream team” capable of delivering competent, clean, and transformational governance. Heydarian suggests a leadership lineup that could include Senator Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino, Senator Risa Hontiveros, and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto—figures seen as credible, reform-minded, and untainted by the scandals of the past.
As the country braces for what could be a “Game of Thrones”-style showdown, all eyes are on the coming months. The fate of the Duterte dynasty hangs in the balance, with legal challenges mounting and political alliances shifting. The Marcos administration, for its part, faces the daunting task of navigating these treacherous waters while maintaining stability and constitutional order. And the third force, still in its formative stages, must decide whether it can rise to the occasion and offer Filipinos a genuine alternative to the cycles of impunity and dynastic rule.
For the family of Kian delos Santos, the Supreme Court’s recent ruling is a bittersweet vindication—proof that, even after years of waiting, justice can sometimes prevail. For the nation, however, the road ahead remains uncertain, as old power structures are challenged and new ones begin to take shape.
