Hungary and Serbia have found themselves at the heart of a rapidly escalating energy crisis, as diplomatic efforts intensify to keep Serbia’s oil refineries running and its fuel pumps supplied ahead of the looming winter. On November 27, 2025, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban traveled to Belgrade to meet with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, aiming to broker a solution that could reshape the region’s energy landscape.
The immediate trigger for the crisis is the US sanctions imposed on Serbia’s sole oil refiner, Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), which is majority-owned by Russian energy giants Gazprom Neft and Gazprom. These sanctions, which took effect on October 9, 2025, have disrupted crude oil deliveries—including those through Croatia’s JANAF pipeline—and raised the specter of a complete shutdown at the Pancevo refinery before the end of the week, according to Bloomberg and Caliber.Az. With winter approaching and energy supplies strained, Serbia faces the very real threat of a fuel shortage that could affect everything from heating to transportation.
Hungary has stepped in as a crucial partner. Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Peter Szijjarto, during a visit to Belgrade, announced that Hungary has more than doubled its oil product shipments to Serbia since November. The Hungarian energy company MOL has significantly increased deliveries, with Szijjarto stating that further increases are possible if the situation demands. "Hungary is committed to helping Serbia maintain energy security during this period of supply strain," he said, as reported by multiple sources.
The urgency is palpable. Serbian President Vucic has acknowledged that the country’s current fuel reserves should last through the end of 2025, but warned that without a new arrangement, the situation could deteriorate quickly. Vucic gave Russian shareholders—Gazprom Neft (44.9%) and Gazprom (11.3%)—and potential buyers, including entities from Hungary and the United Arab Emirates, a 50-day window from November 27 to reach a deal that would satisfy US demands for Russian divestment. If no agreement is reached, the Serbian government is prepared to take over management of NIS and offer a buyout, a move that would mark a dramatic shift for a company sold to Russian interests in 2008 for €400 million ($433 million).
Behind the scenes, negotiations are moving at a frantic pace. Hungarian energy company MOL is reportedly in talks with Serbia over a possible purchase of Gazprom’s stakes in NIS and the resumption of normal fuel supplies. Gergely Gulyas, head of the Hungarian prime minister’s office, was quoted by Caliber.Az as saying, “These talks are going on right now. NIS’s interest is for Russian ownership to cease, given that this is the reason for economic difficulties due to the sanctions. MOL taking on a bigger role could be an opportunity.”
But the path forward is anything but straightforward. Any deal involving Russian energy assets would likely require the blessing of Moscow, and reports have swirled that Orban might travel to the Russian capital to meet President Vladimir Putin. Gulyas, however, refused to confirm or deny such reports, underscoring the delicate nature of the ongoing negotiations. The support of the US Office of Foreign Assets Control is also crucial—without a license from the agency, NIS cannot continue operations, regardless of who owns it.
The impact of the sanctions is being felt well beyond the boardroom. NIS has requested a temporary waiver from the sanctions while talks continue, but as of now, no response has been received from US authorities. In the meantime, everyday Serbians are experiencing the effects firsthand: Visa and Mastercard payments are no longer accepted at NIS fuel stations, leaving only cash and Dina card payments—backed by the National Bank of Serbia—as viable options. The central bank has warned it will cease cooperation with NIS if a resolution is not found within the 50-day timeframe, further raising the stakes for all parties involved.
Serbian authorities, once reluctant to consider nationalization due to the country’s historic ties with Moscow, have now introduced a budget provision that would allow for a state takeover of NIS. This shift signals just how seriously Belgrade views the potential for a prolonged energy crisis. The prospect of temporary nationalization, previously ruled out, is now very much on the table as Serbia scrambles to secure its energy future.
Hungary’s involvement is not purely altruistic. Orban and his top diplomat have been on what Bloomberg describes as a “whirlwind tour of central Europe” with the goal of acquiring sanctioned Russian-owned refineries. With Russian companies facing mounting pressure to sell assets rendered effectively inoperable by US sanctions—including Lukoil’s refineries in Bulgaria and Romania—Hungary sees an opportunity to expand its influence and ensure its own energy security by stepping into the void left by departing Russian interests.
For Serbia, the stakes could hardly be higher. The country’s energy system is highly dependent on the Pancevo refinery, operated by NIS, and any prolonged shutdown could have cascading effects across the economy. President Vucic has made it clear that the government is prepared to act decisively if necessary, stating, “If the Russian owners do not sell their shares within 50 days, the Serbian government is ready to take over management and offer a buyout.” This ultimatum reflects both the urgency of the situation and the shifting political winds in the region.
The crisis has also exposed the vulnerabilities of relying on foreign—particularly Russian—ownership of critical infrastructure. Serbia sold control of NIS to Gazprom and Gazprom Neft in 2008, a move that was seen at the time as a way to deepen ties with Moscow and secure reliable energy supplies. Now, with those same ties threatening to choke off the country’s fuel supply, Serbian leaders are being forced to reconsider their options.
As the clock ticks down on the 50-day deadline, all eyes are on the ongoing negotiations. Will Hungary’s MOL step in and acquire the Russian stakes in NIS, providing a lifeline to Serbia’s energy sector? Will the US grant a temporary waiver to allow time for a deal to be struck? Or will the Serbian government be forced to nationalize NIS in a bid to keep the lights on and the economy moving?
One thing is certain: the outcome of these talks will have far-reaching implications, not just for Serbia and Hungary, but for the wider region as it grapples with the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the shifting dynamics of global energy markets. As winter approaches and energy supplies hang in the balance, the decisions made in Belgrade, Budapest, and beyond will shape the future of the Balkans for years to come.
For now, Serbia’s energy future hangs in the balance, with leaders racing against time to avert a crisis that could leave the country quite literally in the cold.