Washington, D.C. is abuzz with speculation and uncertainty as the House Republican Conference faces a wave of retirements, internal divisions, and growing questions about its leadership. With rumors swirling around Capitol Hill, the Republican majority in the House is grappling with both expected and surprise departures, all while Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) contends with open dissent within his own ranks. The latest developments, reported by NOTUS and corroborated by other outlets, paint a picture of a party at a crossroads, weighing loyalty, ambition, and the future of its legislative agenda.
As of December 19, 2025, estimates suggest that about two dozen House Republicans may be preparing to exit Congress. Over the past few months, a series of retirement announcements has fueled speculation of a mass exodus, with the number of Republican departures already outpacing those of their Democratic counterparts. According to NOTUS, more than half of the House Republican Conference—over 120 members—were recently surveyed about their intentions for the 2026 election cycle. While most lawmakers emphatically declared their plans to run again, a handful remained noncommittal, keeping observers guessing about their next moves.
In Utah, the political landscape has been thrown into disarray by a judge’s ruling that discarded the previous congressional map, finding it unlawfully gerrymandered. The new boundaries have created one Democratic-leaning district and three safe Republican districts, setting the stage for a potential game of musical chairs among the state’s four GOP incumbents: Blake Moore, Celeste Maloy, Mike Kennedy, and Burgess Owens. All four have indicated to NOTUS that they are planning to run in 2026, though the possibility remains that one or more could face tough primary battles or even be left without a seat. Moore, who represents northern Utah, joked about his reelection plans, saying, “Actually, if you want to call [my wife] and find out if I’m running, that’s great, too.” Owens acknowledged the uncertainty, telling NOTUS, “We have some things going on in Utah right now trying to figure out how we’re gonna do redistricting. But we’re on board.” Maloy was similarly clear, stating she is “not planning on retiring.”
Elsewhere, the mood is less certain. Rep. Troy Balderson of Ohio initially hedged his bets, saying he was “probably” running again, but a spokesperson later clarified that Balderson is “100 percent” seeking reelection in 2026. Rep. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming was cryptic about her intentions, telling NOTUS, “I’ve made a decision. An announcement will be made soon,” leaving open the possibility of a gubernatorial run or another term in the House.
The list of those departing is already significant. Eighteen House Republicans have announced campaigns for higher office, such as the Senate, governor, or attorney general. Another seven—including Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington, former Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul, and Trump ally Rep. Troy Nehls—have decided not to run again. These numbers mark an uptick from the previous election cycle. In 2024, 45 House members (24 Democrats and 21 Republicans) did not seek reelection. For 2026, the tally stands at 43 so far, with 24 Republicans and 19 Democrats stepping aside, according to NOTUS. “There’s a lot of them bailing,” Rep. Dale Strong, who intends to run again, told the outlet.
Announcing a retirement is a delicate affair in Congress, with many lawmakers preferring to control the timing of their news. Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington, for example, told NOTUS he was still considering his options on a Tuesday, only to announce his retirement the very next morning. This pattern of equivocation and sudden announcements has contributed to the sense that a larger exodus may be brewing behind the scenes.
For some Republicans, the decision to stay is tied to the pursuit of seniority and influence. Rep. Mike Bost, chair of the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, laughed as he explained, “My seniority number is climbing tremendously, why would I leave?” Rep. Glenn Thompson, who chairs the House Agriculture Committee, noted, “When I was first elected, my seniority was 433 out of 435, and it’s 76 now. There’s always turnover!” Rep. Joe Wilson, celebrating 25 years in the House, said he feels more “energized” than ever, partly because his son is running for governor. Others, like Rep. Diana Harshbarger, frame their continued service as a calling: “I’ve got to save the country.”
Age is another factor in the reelection calculus. Despite speculation about whether some of the oldest House Republicans would seek another term, several have confirmed their plans to run. Rep. Hal Rogers, 87, Rules Committee Chair Virginia Foxx, 82, and Rep. Mike Simpson, 75, all told NOTUS they intend to seek reelection in 2026. Rep. John Carter, 84, was equally direct, saying, “I am running. Not this year,” when asked about retirement. Rep. Jim Baird, 80, facing a primary challenge, also plans to stay in the race.
Redistricting looms large in several states, complicating the picture for incumbents. Filing deadlines vary widely, affecting the timing of announcements. In Texas, for instance, the deadline was December 8, 2025, forcing many prominent Republicans to make decisions sooner than their colleagues in other states. Rep. Mark Amodei of Nevada highlighted the uncertainty, saying, “It’s Dec. 16. Yes, I plan on running. Ask me in 60 days.” Rep. Doug LaMalfa of California was initially evasive, asking reporters, “What do you hear?” before finally confirming his intention to run, regardless of the outcome of Proposition 50, a ballot initiative related to redistricting.
Meanwhile, the Republican Conference is contending with internal strife and challenges to Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership. On December 18, 2025, four moderate Republicans joined all House Democrats to force a vote on legislation Johnson had opposed, signaling cracks in party discipline. According to reporting, the House voted to schedule consideration of a bill spearheaded by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) that would extend enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits for three years. This was the fourth time in recent weeks that frustrated Republicans broke ranks, underscoring mounting tensions within the conference after a year of legislative wrangling.
Asking lawmakers about their reelection plans has become something of a parlor game in Washington, with some Republicans as curious as reporters about who might be next to announce a departure. The mood is a mix of resignation, ambition, and, for some, a sense of mission. Whether the party can maintain cohesion amid retirements, redistricting, and leadership strains remains to be seen. What is clear is that the House GOP is entering a period of transition, with the 2026 election cycle promising more surprises and shakeups in the months ahead.
