On December 15, 2025, a Hong Kong court will deliver its long-awaited verdict in the national security trial of Jimmy Lai, the 78-year-old media tycoon and founder of the now-banned pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily. Lai, a British passport holder and one of the most prominent critics of Beijing’s tightening grip on Hong Kong, has spent more than 1,800 days behind bars since his arrest in 2020. For many, the outcome of his trial will symbolize the fate of free expression in the city once celebrated for its vibrant press and independent judiciary.
Lai has been charged under the sweeping national security law imposed by Beijing in 2020, which was further revised in 2024. The law was introduced in response to the massive and sometimes violent pro-democracy protests that rocked Hong Kong in 2019. Prosecutors accuse Lai of collusion with foreign forces and sedition, claiming he conspired with Western officials to undermine Chinese rule in the territory. If convicted, he faces a possible life sentence.
The trial, which began in December 2023, has unfolded with high drama and international scrutiny. According to AFP and The Globe and Mail, Lai has spent almost two months testifying on the stand, with prosecutors characterizing him as a key instigator of the 2019 protests and a persistent agent lobbying for foreign sanctions against Hong Kong and Chinese officials. The prosecution’s case leans heavily on the argument that Lai’s collaborations with foreign entities were "long-term and persistent," as stated by prosecutor Anthony Chau.
Lai’s legal team, however, has vigorously contested the charges. In closing arguments this past August, his lawyer Robert Pang declared, "It is not wrong to support freedom of expression. It is not wrong to support human rights. Nor is it wrong to hope that the government would change its policies, whether through its own internal review or through suggestion or even pressure, whether from inside Hong Kong or out." Pang argued that the conspiracy case against Lai involves stretching the law retroactively, criminalizing actions that were legal when they were committed.
In addition to the national security law charges, Lai faces prosecution under a colonial-era sedition law dating back to 1938. This law, which has seen a resurgence in use since the protests, carries a maximum sentence of three years. Lai is also accused of publishing 161 seditious articles, including editorials he personally signed. The Hong Kong government has condemned what it calls Lai’s "distortion" of events through his press activities, stating in a release cited by AFP that "these reports seek to defame the Hong Kong government by trying to deceive the public."
Lai himself has steadfastly maintained his innocence. During the trial, he denied ever advocating separatism or violent resistance, and rejected claims that he called for Western sanctions against China or Hong Kong. "Apple Daily’s core values are actually the core values of the Hong Kong people," Lai asserted, listing "the rule of law, freedom, the pursuit of democracy, freedom of expression, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly" as central to his mission.
The personal toll of Lai’s prolonged detention has become a focal point for his family and supporters. His children, speaking to reporters in Washington in early December, voiced grave concerns about their father’s health. Lai, who is diabetic, has endured years of solitary confinement in a prison where summer temperatures reportedly reach 44°C (111°F), and, according to his children, he has been held without air conditioning. They warn that even a short prison sentence could prove fatal given his age and deteriorating condition after five years in custody. Despite these concerns, Hong Kong authorities maintain that Lai is receiving "adequate and comprehensive" care in prison.
The wider implications of Lai’s case have drawn international attention and criticism. His son Sebastien Lai has been lobbying Western governments, including the United States, to intervene on his father’s behalf. Earlier this year, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly pledged, "Washington would do everything we can" to help secure Jimmy Lai’s release. The case has become a lightning rod for the global debate about the erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms and the reach of China’s legal system beyond its borders.
Observers note that the national security law under which Lai is charged has a conviction rate exceeding 90 percent. Many, including international human rights groups, have long predicted that Lai will be found guilty, alleging that the case against him is predetermined. The Hong Kong authorities have repeatedly denied such accusations, insisting that Lai’s trial is fair and impartial.
Lai’s prosecution is emblematic of the broader crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong since the 2019 protests. The national security law has been used to silence activists, shutter independent media, and stifle public demonstrations. Apple Daily, once the city’s most widely read pro-democracy newspaper, was forced to close in 2021 after its assets were frozen and several of its senior staff arrested. The demise of the paper marked, for many, the end of an era of press freedom in Hong Kong.
Yet, Lai’s case is also deeply personal. The image of a frail, elderly man, who once commanded a media empire, now fighting for his life and liberty in a courtroom, has resonated far beyond Hong Kong. Supporters see him as a symbol of resistance and the enduring desire for freedom, while his detractors view him as a dangerous provocateur aligned with foreign interests.
The verdict, scheduled for 10:00 a.m. on December 15, will be delivered by a panel of three judges, as noted on the court’s official website. The hearing is expected to last about an hour, but its impact will likely echo for years to come. For Lai’s family, the focus has shifted to the hope of securing compassionate release, should he be convicted. "My focus is on securing some kind of compassionate release after conviction," Sebastien Lai has said, reflecting the grim reality that his father’s health may not withstand further incarceration.
As Hong Kong awaits the court’s decision, the world is watching. The outcome will not only determine the fate of Jimmy Lai but will also serve as a barometer for the city’s commitment to the rule of law, freedom of expression, and the enduring struggle between democratic ideals and authoritarian rule. The story of Jimmy Lai—media mogul, activist, prisoner—remains a stark reminder of the costs borne by those who dare to challenge power.
