Honduras is on the brink of a diplomatic about-face that could reverberate far beyond Central America’s borders. As voters head to the polls on November 30, 2025, the country’s presidential election is shaping up to be a rare test of China’s campaign to isolate Taiwan—and may even produce a dramatic reversal. Both leading candidates, former vice-president Salvador Nasralla and former Tegucigalpa mayor Nasry Asfura, have pledged to break ties with Beijing and reestablish official relations with Taipei, a move that would buck the recent regional trend and send a clear signal to the world about Honduras’s shifting allegiances.
According to reporting from Reuters and the Taipei Times, Nasralla and Asfura are not only united in their stance on China and Taiwan, but are also eager to forge a closer relationship with the United States—Honduras’s top trading partner and the main destination for its migrants. The stakes are high: the outcome could reshape the country’s foreign policy, trade landscape, and even its place in the geopolitical tug-of-war between Washington and Beijing.
Nasralla, who led the most recent poll in October with Asfura close behind, has made his position crystal clear. Both he and Asfura blame outgoing President Xiomara Castro’s 2023 decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China for a drop in some Honduran exports—most notably, shrimp. Taiwan had previously been the largest buyer of Honduran shrimp, but since ties were cut, imports have plummeted. The economic impact has been felt keenly in the country’s export sector, fueling voter discontent and giving the opposition a potent campaign issue.
Castro, who is not eligible for re-election, had championed the pivot to Beijing as a way to unlock new trade and financing opportunities for Honduras’s 11 million citizens. She touted promises of Chinese investment in infrastructure, including a hydroelectric dam, and the prospect of a free trade agreement. But according to Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue, “The decision to cut ties with Taiwan and establish them with China has not resulted in the flows of capital the government may have anticipated. Projects have not come to pass.”
The sense of disappointment is echoed by both Nasralla and Asfura, who argue that the expected benefits from Beijing never materialized. Instead, they say, Honduras’s relationship with China has been a “bad deal” that failed to deliver on its promises. As Evan Ellis, a Latin America specialist at the U.S. Army War College, explained to the Taipei Times, “Economically, the relationship with China has been a bad deal for Honduras despite the expectations, so it’s a pocket-book issue, but it’s also about signaling that we want to align ourselves with the West and the United States.”
For both candidates, the pivot back to Taiwan is as much about economic pragmatism as it is about international alignment. The United States remains by far the largest buyer of Honduran goods, while exports to China account for less than 1 percent of the total. The desire to strengthen ties with Washington has become a central theme of the campaign, especially as former U.S. President Donald Trump—who continues to wield significant influence in the region—has publicly endorsed Asfura. Trump’s social media post declared Asfura “the only one of the trio with whom he could work,” underscoring the high stakes for U.S.-Honduras relations.
The election is also being watched as a bellwether for broader regional trends. In recent years, countries like Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador have all switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing, often lured by promises of loans, investments, and aid. But as the Taipei Times notes, it is highly unusual for a nation to flip back in the other direction—a move that would represent a rare diplomatic win for Taiwan and a setback for China’s efforts to isolate the island on the world stage.
Meanwhile, the ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada—an ally of Castro who supports continued ties with China—has failed to gain much traction, placing third in the most recent poll. The vote is seen as a test of whether the region is aligning itself more closely with the United States, especially as Trump pressures trade partners to distance themselves from Beijing. Recent elections in Chile and Bolivia have also seen victories for candidates pledging better relations with Washington, suggesting a possible shift in the regional mood.
The campaign has not been without controversy. The lead-up to the vote has been marked by heightened tensions, with both sides accusing each other of plotting fraud. The ruling party has alleged that the opposition is seeking to steal the election and has installed a temporary congress filled with loyalists, while opposition lawmakers have formed a rival legislative body. The resulting political standoff has drawn concern from both the United States and the Organization of American States (OAS), who have called for transparency and warned against any attempts to undermine the democratic process.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau took to social media to issue a stern warning, stating that the U.S. would “respond swiftly and decisively to anyone who undermines the integrity of the democratic process in Honduras.” The message was clear: Washington is watching closely, and any hint of electoral misconduct will not go unnoticed.
Nasralla and Asfura have also signaled a willingness to break with other regional partners aligned with Beijing, promising to cut ties with Venezuela if elected and refusing to recognize Nicolás Maduro as president. Castro’s government, by contrast, has backed Maduro and criticized the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean. This divergence further underscores the opposition’s intent to reposition Honduras firmly within the U.S. orbit.
Polling stations are set to open at 7 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. on election day, with initial results expected after 8 p.m., according to the Honduran National Board of Elections. The eyes of the world—and especially those in Washington, Beijing, and Taipei—will be fixed on the outcome. For Honduras, the decision is more than a matter of diplomatic protocol; it’s about economic opportunity, national identity, and its place in a rapidly changing global order.
As the country prepares to cast its ballots, the choice facing Hondurans is stark: continue along the path set by Castro and Beijing, or chart a new course back toward Taipei and closer ties with Washington. The result could set a precedent for the region and reshape alliances for years to come.
