One year after the death of its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah finds itself at a crossroads—caught between the scars of a devastating war with Israel and the determination of its supporters to regroup and resist disarmament. Despite predictions of its demise, the Iran-backed group has begun to reassert itself, even as it faces mounting military, political, and financial challenges.
On September 27, 2024, Israeli airstrikes on a Beirut suburb killed Nasrallah, a charismatic figure who had led Hezbollah for decades. The strikes, which also claimed the lives of his successor Hashem Safieddine and hundreds of civilians, marked the culmination of a brutal conflict that left the group militarily and politically weakened. Israeli forces seized more territory in southern Lebanon, while near-daily airstrikes continued to target Hezbollah militants and facilities well after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took hold in late November 2024, according to reports from Arab News and France 24.
In the immediate aftermath, many of Hezbollah’s opponents declared the group finished as a dominant regional and local player. Yet, as the anniversary of Nasrallah’s death approached in late September 2025, a consensus emerged among supporters, adversaries, and analysts: Hezbollah is regrouping. “The loss of this leader was a very painful blow to Hezbollah,” acknowledged senior Hezbollah political official Mohammed Fneish in an interview with the Associated Press. “However, Hezbollah is not a party in the usual sense that when it loses its leader, the party becomes weak. In a relatively short period of time, it was able to fill all the positions it lost when [leaders] were martyred, and it continued the confrontation.”
Hezbollah’s new chief, Naim Qassem, addressed a crowd of tens of thousands at Nasrallah’s mausoleum near Beirut airport, just steps away from the site of the fatal airstrike. His message was defiant: “We will never abandon our weapons, nor will we relinquish them. We are ready for martyrdom.” The crowd, waving Hezbollah’s yellow banners alongside Lebanese, Palestinian, and Iranian flags, echoed his sentiment. “Handing over the weapons is the dream of the enemies, the internal and external ones—but it will remain just a dream,” said 21-year-old university student Ali Jaafar to AFP. Another supporter, Wisam Hodroj, declared, “What has happened since the last war has only increased our enthusiasm and strength. Today, we have a new cause—we will not compromise on our weapons, and we will not hand them over.”
Hezbollah’s insistence on retaining its arsenal has put it on a collision course with the Lebanese government, which, under pressure from the United States and Saudi Arabia, has pledged to disarm the group by the end of 2025. The Lebanese army has drawn up plans to start this process in the south, but the path forward is fraught with complications. Many Lebanese soldiers come from the same Shiite communities that form Hezbollah’s base, and the army itself is under-resourced, with many of its members working second jobs to make ends meet. As a Western diplomat put it, “I don’t see any coming back on this [decision], but I don’t see how it will go forward either.”
Despite the blows to its leadership and infrastructure, Hezbollah has moved quickly to adapt. After Nasrallah’s death, the group’s military wing largely went underground, changing its communication methods to avoid Israeli intelligence. According to a Hezbollah official quoted by Arab News, Israel’s use of technology and spies—including the infiltration of Hezbollah’s internal cable communications network—was a key factor in the success of the airstrikes. The group has since detained a Lebanese man accused of gathering information for Israel and has worked to close intelligence gaps.
Hezbollah’s ability to regroup owes much to its deep roots within Lebanon’s Shiite community. After the war, the group and its allies scored overwhelming victories in municipal elections in their traditional strongholds, a sign that its base remains mobilized despite war fatigue and the destruction of areas like Kfar Kila. “There’s a portion of this community that was psychologically worn down after this war, and started saying, fine, let’s give up the weapons and we’ll be able to relax,” Lebanese journalist Jad Hamouch told the Associated Press. “But after they saw how Israel is behaving in the region, now they’re saying, no, we want to keep the weapons.” Amira Jaafar, who lost her son in the conflict, echoed this sentiment: “We are still strong and there are many, many young men still ready to fight until their last breath.”
Hezbollah’s financial situation remains opaque. While Israeli officials claim the group’s influence has declined and that it is struggling to receive sufficient funding from Iran, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack told IMI Media Group that Hezbollah is still receiving as much as $60 million per month from unknown sources, despite international efforts to cut off its funding. Fneish, the Hezbollah official, described the group’s finances as “normal” and insisted that its institutions—including health care and social services—continue to function as before.
The loss of a key supply route from Iran, following the fall of Bashar Assad’s government in Syria in December 2024, was another major setback. Fneish admitted this was a blow to Hezbollah’s “strategic depth,” but maintained that the group is adapting to new realities. According to analysis by Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs in Beirut, Hezbollah’s ability to regroup despite these challenges is a testament to its resilience and the enduring appeal of its “martyrdom culture.” Bashir Saade, a lecturer at the University of Stirling, observed, “Nasrallah’s assassination was an emotional shock that is destabilizing, but their identity finds continuity through the martyrdom culture.”
Regional and international actors continue to watch developments closely. Iranian security chief Ali Larijani attended the Nasrallah commemoration, underscoring Tehran’s ongoing support. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the United Nations General Assembly, praised Lebanon’s steps toward disarming Hezbollah but insisted that he needed “more than words.” The United States, for its part, maintains that Hezbollah must be disarmed before it will support reconstruction efforts in Lebanon.
President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon called for the painful anniversary to “serve as a rallying point, reinforcing the belief that Lebanon’s salvation lies in having one unified state, one army and constitutional institutions that protect sovereignty and uphold dignity.” Yet, as Israeli strikes continue and troops remain at five border points inside Lebanon, the prospect of a unified Lebanese state without Hezbollah’s armed presence remains uncertain.
One year after Nasrallah’s assassination, Hezbollah’s future is anything but settled. The group’s capacity to regroup, adapt, and maintain its grip on its base—even as it faces existential threats—suggests that, for now, it remains a force to be reckoned with in Lebanon and the broader region.