The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks are set to clash in a pivotal NBA matchup on Friday, December 26, 2025, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. Both squads enter the contest searching for answers after tough holiday stretches, with the Hawks (15-16) mired in a four-game losing streak and the Heat (15-15) dropping three straight of their own. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, with fans able to catch the action on FDSSUN, FDSSE, WANF, Peachtree Sports Network, and ESPN, or stream it live via Fubo.
This marks the 143rd regular-season meeting between the franchises, with Miami holding an 81-61 advantage in the all-time series. The Heat have also claimed back-to-back wins over Atlanta earlier this calendar year, but both teams’ recent form has been anything but inspiring. Miami currently sits eighth in the Eastern Conference, clinging to .500, while the Hawks are close behind but struggling to find their rhythm, having gone 2-8 over their last 10 games.
Oddsmakers peg Atlanta as a narrow favorite at home, with the spread hovering between -2.5 and -4.5 points depending on the sportsbook. The over/under is set at a lofty 250.5, reflecting both teams’ up-tempo styles and defensive issues. Atlanta is a -155 moneyline favorite, with Miami offering underdog value at +130. Despite the Hawks’ home-court advantage, recent trends suggest little is guaranteed: Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in its last six games, even when favored in four of them. Meanwhile, Miami has a 3-2 record in its last five head-to-head matchups against the Hawks and is 3-2 against the spread in those contests.
Injuries loom large for both sides. The Hawks are without Kristaps Porzingis (reconditioning) and N’Faly Dante (knee, out for the season), while Mouhamed Gueye is listed as day-to-day with a shoulder issue. For Miami, the absence of Tyler Herro (toe) is a significant blow, and Bam Adebayo (back), Nikola Jovic (elbow), Keshad Johnson (head/illness), and Pelle Larsson (ankle) are all day-to-day, with Adebayo’s status being especially pivotal. If Adebayo is limited or unavailable, the burden will fall even more heavily on Norman Powell and emerging big man Kel’el Ware to anchor the Heat on both ends.
Despite their struggles, both teams possess offensive firepower. The Hawks average 118.8 points per game (12th in the NBA), just 1.2 more than the 117.6 the Heat surrender. Miami, meanwhile, is ninth in the league with 119.2 points per contest, a mere 0.4 shy of the 119.6 points the Hawks allow to opponents. Atlanta’s 48.3% field goal percentage is a notable edge, sitting 3.1% higher than the 45.2% shooting allowed by Miami’s defense.
Key players will need to step up if either side hopes to snap its losing streak. For Atlanta, Jalen Johnson has emerged as a star, averaging 23.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 10.5 rebounds per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been on a tear, putting up 20.3 points per game this season and surpassing 17.5 points in seven of his last ten outings, including seven games with 21 points or more in December. Action PRO projects Alexander-Walker for 21.07 points in this matchup, making him a player to watch. The Hawks also rely on Onyeka Okongwu (15.7 points, 7.4 rebounds) and Dyson Daniels (11.5 points, 5.7 assists, 6.4 rebounds), with Zaccharie Risacher contributing 11.1 points per game.
Trae Young’s return from injury is another storyline to monitor. He’s still working his way back to peak form as Atlanta’s primary playmaker. In his last two games since returning, Young has averaged 28.5 points and 12 assists in 28.5 minutes per game. According to PrizePicks, Young’s on-ball rate last season placed him in the 99th percentile, signaling his importance to the Hawks’ offensive engine. Jalen Johnson has also been a force, averaging 42.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists, with that number rising to 49.2 over his last ten games. His efficiency and rebounding prowess (21.4% defensive rebounding rate, 99th percentile) have kept Atlanta competitive even during their skid.
The Heat, meanwhile, have leaned heavily on Norman Powell, who is averaging 23.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game while shooting an impressive 47.8% from the field and 40.7% from beyond the arc. Bam Adebayo, if available, brings 18.0 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, but his back injury has limited his recent output and efficiency. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.7 assists) and Andrew Wiggins (15.8 points, 4.7 rebounds) round out a balanced Miami attack, with Kel’el Ware providing interior presence at 12.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.
Both teams have struggled defensively of late. Atlanta ranks 24th in points allowed (119.6), and Miami is 19th (117.6). The Hawks’ defense has been particularly vulnerable inside, especially with Porzingis and Gueye sidelined. Miami’s defense has also slipped, ranking 18th in points allowed in the paint and 14th in fastbreak scenarios. The Heat’s offense, while opportunistic, has become less consistent, especially without Herro and with Adebayo’s health in question.
Betting trends reflect the uncertainty surrounding both teams. Miami holds a 16-14 record against the spread this season (53.3%), while Atlanta is 14-17 (45.2%). The over has hit in 50% of Miami’s games and 60% of Atlanta’s, suggesting tonight’s high total isn’t just a fluke. The Heat have been underdogs by 3.5 points or more 11 times and are 6-4-1 against the spread in those games. Atlanta, as a favorite of 3.5 points or more, is just 3-8 against the spread in 11 such contests.
With both teams desperate for a win and key players either sidelined or battling injuries, the outcome is anything but certain. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring affair where execution in the fourth quarter and contributions from the bench could tip the scales. Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker continue his hot streak? Can Norman Powell carry the Heat if Adebayo is limited? Fans will have to tune in to find out.
As the Heat and Hawks prepare to battle in Atlanta, the stage is set for one team to break its losing streak and gain much-needed momentum heading into the heart of the NBA season. With playoff positioning already in the balance, every possession will matter in this crucial Eastern Conference showdown.
