Gwynne Resignation Sparks By Election Battle In Manchester

Rumors swirling in Westminster and Greater Manchester reached a fever pitch on January 22, 2026, as reports emerged that Andrew Gwynne, the Labour MP for Gorton and Denton, is poised to step down on medical grounds. If confirmed, Gwynne’s resignation would trigger a high-stakes by-election in the heart of Greater Manchester, opening the door for a possible dramatic return to Parliament by Andy Burnham, the region’s mayor and a perennial figure in Labour leadership speculation.

For months, the political grapevine has been abuzz with suggestions that Gwynne’s departure might be part of a carefully negotiated deal, potentially clearing the path for Burnham to challenge for the Labour leadership or at least reclaim a seat in the House of Commons. The Times reported on Thursday that Gwynne would announce his departure later that day, though the MP himself has publicly denied any immediate plans to vacate his seat. "It’s not been confirmed to me. I’ve had no contact on this issue with Andrew or anyone close to him. I know him of old of course but I’m as in the dark about this as anyone," Burnham told the Local Democracy Reporting Service, as cited by BBC Radio Manchester. "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as Mayor of Greater Manchester and I think the reindustrialisation plan I put out this week shows that."

Gwynne’s expected resignation comes nearly a year after the explosive ‘Trigger Me Timbers’ WhatsApp scandal rocked the Labour Party. In February 2025, leaked messages from a group chat involving Gwynne and several local councillors revealed anti-Semitic slights and tasteless jokes, including one about a pensioner dying before an election. The scandal led to a wave of suspensions and expulsions within the party, including Gwynne himself, former Tameside councillor (now Burnley MP) Oliver Ryan, and a dozen others. Despite the controversy, Gwynne managed to hold his seat for Labour in the July 2024 general election, securing a 13,413 majority over Reform UK’s candidate.

Yet the damage lingered. Gwynne was suspended from the Labour Party and reportedly entered discussions with Commons officials about retiring on medical grounds. In September 2025, he publicly insisted he intended to serve a full term: "In order to end the tedious speculation about my seat while I’m trying to recover from a period of ill health, it is my intention to serve a full term. The route to No. 10 is not going to be through Gorton and Denton." Nevertheless, as of January 22, 2026, multiple outlets including LabourList and The Times reported that a deal had been reached for his early retirement, possibly allowing him to collect his parliamentary pension.

Should Gwynne’s resignation become official, the formal process to fill his seat will begin. According to LabourList, a writ for a by-election would likely be issued within three months, based on precedent set when Mike Amesbury resigned as MP for Runcorn and Helsby last year. Once the writ is issued, the by-election must take place between 21 and 27 working days later. There is speculation that the by-election could coincide with local elections on May 7, 2026, potentially increasing turnout and national attention.

All eyes are now on Andy Burnham. The former Labour cabinet minister has served as Greater Manchester’s directly-elected mayor since 2017, winning re-election in 2021 and 2024 with commanding majorities—63.4% of the regional vote and 61% in Tameside, the district encompassing Gorton and Denton. Despite his popularity, Labour’s 2026 rulebook presents a significant procedural hurdle: directly-elected mayors must seek "the express permission of the NEC (national executive committee) before seeking nomination" as a parliamentary candidate, with the NEC’s decision being final.

There’s more. The cost of a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, should Burnham step down to pursue a Commons seat, could reach £2 million—a figure that may weigh heavily on the NEC’s deliberations, according to The Guardian. Even with NEC approval, Burnham would face a rigorous selection process: a committee of six to nine members reflecting the constituency’s demographics, supervised by an NEC representative, would oversee the shortlist and timetable. Burnham would need to pass an interview, make the shortlist, and then win a selection contest among local Labour members.

But perhaps the most formidable barrier is the possibility of an all-women shortlist, a mechanism Labour has used to improve gender balance in its parliamentary ranks. In December, the New Statesman reported that the NEC might impose such a shortlist for the Gorton and Denton by-election, with a party source stating, "Gender balance in our party is much more important than boosting the ego of any single politician." This move would block Burnham from standing, regardless of his popularity or ambitions.

Burnham, for his part, has kept his cards close to his chest about a return to Westminster or a challenge to Keir Starmer’s leadership. While he has repeatedly refused to rule out standing as a candidate, he’s also emphasized his commitment to Greater Manchester and his recent policy initiatives. On January 22, 2026, speaking to BBC Radio Manchester, Burnham remarked that he believed he could make a bigger difference for the north of England as mayor than as an MP in Westminster. According to YouGov, Burnham remains one of the few British politicians without a negative net favourability rating—29% favourable, 29% unfavourable—underscoring his continued relevance on the national stage.

The coming by-election promises to be fiercely contested. While Gwynne secured 50% of the vote in 2024, recent polling from More in Common paints a far tighter race: Reform UK is polling at 30%, Labour at 28%, and the Greens at 23%. National polling also suggests a much closer contest than in previous years, reflecting the shifting political winds and the impact of recent scandals.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting weighed in on the unfolding drama, praising Burnham as someone who "makes a massive impact and makes a really big difference" whether in national government or regional leadership. Streeting also highlighted the need for strong candidates to come forward, stating, "If indeed there is going to be a by-election, we need to make sure we’ve got a strong candidate, that we fight really hard to win that by-election, and we need our best candidates to come forward." He left open the question of whether Burnham would throw his hat into the ring, emphasizing that it would ultimately be for Burnham and party members to decide.

Legal technicalities further complicate Burnham’s potential candidacy. As mayor, he also serves as Greater Manchester’s police and crime commissioner, a role that legally bars him from simultaneously serving as an MP. Burnham would need to resign his mayoral post before seeking parliamentary office, a move that would not only trigger the costly mayoral by-election but also risk his current political base.

The Gorton and Denton saga is more than a local political shuffle; it’s a microcosm of Labour’s internal tensions and the evolving landscape of British politics. The outcome could shape not just the party’s fortunes in Greater Manchester, but also the national conversation about leadership, accountability, and the future direction of the Labour Party. With every twist and turn, the stakes keep rising—and the nation is watching to see who will seize the moment.

As the dust settles and the by-election writ looms, all eyes remain fixed on Greater Manchester. The next moves by Gwynne, Burnham, and the Labour Party’s NEC will determine not only the future of one parliamentary seat, but potentially the trajectory of the party itself in the years ahead.