Gwynne Exit Sparks Manchester Showdown As Burnham Eyes Return

Political intrigue is swirling in Greater Manchester after reports emerged that Andrew Gwynne, the suspended former Labour health minister and current MP for Gorton and Denton, is expected to announce his retirement on medical grounds. The move, widely anticipated by senior party figures and government officials, would trigger a by-election in a seat that has become the center of speculation about the future of both Labour's leadership and the party's fortunes nationwide. The timing, just months before crucial local elections, has sent ripples through Westminster and beyond, raising questions about who will step into the fray and what it means for Labour's leadership.

According to Sky News, Gwynne's decision comes after a period of sick leave and an ongoing investigation by the parliamentary commissioner for standards into offensive WhatsApp messages he sent in 2025. The messages, which included disparaging remarks about colleagues and constituents, led to his suspension from Labour and removal from his ministerial post. Gwynne has publicly apologized, admitting to "badly misjudged" comments and expressing regret for the offense caused. "I entirely understand the decisions the PM and the party have taken and, while very sad to have been suspended, will support them in any way I can," he wrote on X, formerly Twitter, at the time.

Gwynne's departure is not only significant for his constituency but could have far-reaching implications for Labour's internal dynamics. The Gorton and Denton seat, on the outskirts of Manchester, has long been seen as a potential launchpad for Andy Burnham, the current Greater Manchester mayor, to return to Parliament. Burnham—sometimes nicknamed the "King of the North"—has been re-elected as mayor three times since 2017 and is widely regarded as one of Labour's most popular and high-profile figures. Rumors of his leadership ambitions have swirled for months, especially amid reports of resignations and sackings from Sir Keir Starmer's close circle.

Yet Burnham's path back to Westminster is anything but straightforward. As BBC News reports, he would need to break his public promise to remain as mayor until 2028, a move that could be politically costly. Furthermore, he must secure the backing of Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC)—a body generally seen as supportive of Starmer—and win approval from the local Constituency Labour Party. The NEC's decision-making panel is chosen by the office of the general secretary, Hollie Ridley, who is closely aligned with Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. This connection has fueled speculation that the NEC may block Burnham's candidacy, not least because his election to Parliament would trigger a costly and politically risky mayoral by-election.

Labour sources have told The Times and The Independent that the NEC may also insist on an all-women shortlist for the by-election—a move that would further complicate Burnham's ambitions, given that the majority of Labour MPs are currently men. Others in the party, however, question whether Burnham's allies among Labour MPs could force officials to overturn any such block, especially if grassroots support for Burnham proves strong.

If Burnham were to run and win, the impact would be immediate. Not only would it set the stage for a potential leadership challenge against Starmer, but it would also force Labour to defend the Greater Manchester mayoralty in a by-election that could cost hundreds of thousands of pounds. Party officials are acutely aware that a loss in Manchester would be a significant blow at a time when Labour is already bracing for potentially disastrous results in the May 2026 local elections.

The electoral landscape in Gorton and Denton is itself shifting. At the 2024 general election, Gwynne held the seat with a majority of about 13,000 votes, securing 18,000 votes to Reform UK's 5,000 and the Greens' 4,810. Reform, led by Nigel Farage, has since made significant inroads in the polls, and the party has announced its intention to contest the by-election vigorously. "If the by-election happens, then Reform will throw everything at it. It's a huge ask for anyone to beat Labour in Manchester but we will give it our all," a Reform spokesman told Sky News. National polling suggests a swing from Labour to Reform, raising the stakes for whoever is selected as the Labour candidate.

Amid the speculation, Burnham himself has played down the rumors. Speaking to The Independent on Thursday, he said: "It's not been confirmed to me. I've had no contact on this issue with Andrew or anyone close to him. I know him of old, of course, but I'm as in the dark about this as anyone. People shouldn't rush to conclusions." Yet, he has also not ruled out a return to Parliament, telling BBC News previously, "I'm not going to rule out what might or might not happen in the future."

Health Secretary Wes Streeting, responding to questions about the potential by-election, praised both Gwynne and Burnham, while emphasizing the need for strong candidates. "I'm aware he's had some very serious health challenges. And you know, for all of the other challenges he's gone through and some of the difficulties he's had, I wish him and his family well," Streeting said of Gwynne. On Burnham, he noted: "Whether or not Andy will throw his hat into the ring, is for Andy to consider, and ultimately for party members to decide but we need strong candidates. Whether it's in government nationally, or whether it's leading the city and the region locally, he makes a massive impact and makes a really big difference."

Not everyone in Labour is enthusiastic about the prospect of Burnham's return. Some MPs have expressed concern that his candidacy would be "nothing more than a distraction that can roll on for months that we frankly don’t need," as one told The Independent. Others argue that the party should seize the opportunity to select a woman for the seat, with the female leader of Manchester City Council cited as a strong alternative. "It would be good to have a woman," a Labour source told Sky News, reflecting broader calls for greater gender balance in Parliament.

Meanwhile, polling data continues to show Burnham as a frontrunner among potential successors to Starmer. A recent YouGov poll placed him ahead of former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Professor Sir John Curtice, Britain's leading pollster, told The Independent that Burnham "represents Labour’s best hope of keeping Nigel Farage out of No 10," arguing that only Burnham has the necessary support within the party and the wider electorate.

As the parliamentary standards investigation into Gwynne's conduct drags on—now nearly a year without resolution—the stage is set for a dramatic contest in Gorton and Denton. With local elections looming, party unity fraying, and the national mood in flux, the outcome could shape not just the future of one constituency, but the direction of the Labour Party itself.

Whatever happens next, all eyes will be on Manchester in the weeks ahead, as the battle for Labour’s soul—and perhaps the country’s leadership—plays out in real time.