Maritime trade in the Arabian Gulf and beyond is facing a perfect storm of challenges, as new reports from Arthur D. Little (ADL), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), and industry analysts converge on a sobering message: the era of predictable, low-risk shipping is over. Instead, operators, policymakers, and port authorities now find themselves navigating a world where conflict, climate, and cyber risk are not just possibilities—they are the new normal.
According to the ADL report, Navigating Gulf Turbulence, released on October 14, 2025, the Gulf region sits at the epicenter of this upheaval. The study bluntly states that Gulf economies, long "built for efficiency in calm waters," are "ill-prepared for storms." The numbers are staggering: around 20% of global oil exports funnel through the Strait of Hormuz, and over 90% of the region’s trade volume moves by sea. But while this dominance has made the Gulf indispensable to global markets, it has also left it uniquely exposed. "A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would paralyse access for most east coast ports," the report warns.
Recent events have underscored these vulnerabilities. In June 2025, Qatar Energy temporarily halted LNG carrier transits through the Strait of Hormuz, citing rising geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, insurance premiums for Red Sea routes—destabilized since late 2023 by Houthi attacks—have soared by more than 300%. ADL’s analysis is clear: "Such shocks are no longer anomalies, but the new structural baseline for trade."
These risks are not confined to the Gulf. The Unctad Review of Maritime Transport 2025 paints a global picture of mounting uncertainty and rising costs. Seaborne trade growth is projected to slow to just 0.5% in 2025, a marked deceleration from the previous year. The slowdown, Unctad notes, reflects "weaker global demand, ongoing route disruptions, and higher operational costs." Freight rate volatility has become a fact of life, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index jumping 149% in 2024 before easing slightly in early 2025—though rates remain unstable amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Why is the Gulf so exposed? The answer lies in its control over critical maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal. These arteries are the lifeblood of energy trade flows, yet they are also single points of failure. While Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea network and the UAE’s Fujairah port offer some relief, most Gulf states, including Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, depend almost entirely on the vulnerable eastern routes.
For two decades, Gulf logistics strategies have prioritized expanding capacity—building mega-ports, logistics zones, and new terminals. But as ADL notes, "far less has been targeted at resilience architecture, institutional readiness, or coordinated response frameworks." Ports are optimized for throughput, not continuity. This leaves ministries and port authorities without tested strategies to prioritize cargo, reroute under strain, or coordinate cross-border responses. The result in a crisis? "Reactive decision-making based on short-term availability rather than modelled trade-offs."
The potential consequences are severe. ADL simulated a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz using a dynamic scenario model developed for Saudi Arabia. The findings are eye-opening: over 60 million TEUs of container capacity and 1.3 billion tonnes of liquid bulk would be disrupted, with total logistics costs soaring from USD 7 billion to USD 12 billion. Container logistics costs could rise by 75%, while liquid bulk costs might surge by 170%. Even redirecting dry bulk and container cargo to ports in Oman, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast would only mitigate some disruption. Oil exports, the region’s economic backbone, are far harder to reroute. The study estimates that Saudi Arabia could be unable to export 350 million tonnes of crude, valued at around USD 190 billion.
"Few regions exhibit such asymmetric exposure," the report concludes. "The Gulf’s maritime system is both a lifeline and a single point of failure. Without resilience measures, even a temporary closure of Hormuz could cripple national economies."
The breakbulk shipping market, too, is feeling the strain. According to deugro’s latest Freight Market Overview, published October 14, 2025, the sector is entering a "delicate phase" as geopolitical and structural pressures—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—tighten the global fleet. While rates remained steady in the third quarter, the report warns that volatility and a shrinking pool of younger vessels could soon tip the balance between demand and available tonnage. Tensions in the Middle East and ageing fleets are tightening multi-purpose vessel (MPP) capacity, and operators are bracing for tougher times ahead.
Globally, the Unctad report notes that the world’s commercial fleet reached 112,500 vessels with a combined capacity of 2.44 billion deadweight tons as of January 2025, up 3.4% from the previous year. However, growth is slower than historical averages and still outpaces the expansion of trade. Fleet modernization and decarbonization are lagging: only 8% of active tonnage is equipped for alternative fuels, compared to 53% of vessels on order. This slow progress underscores the sector’s vulnerability to both regulatory and environmental shocks.
Ports and maritime infrastructure are under mounting pressure to improve efficiency, resilience, and sustainability. Rising congestion and the need for digital systems are driving investments, but many developing countries still lag in modernization. Unctad highlighted the urgent need for improved port operations, stronger cybersecurity, and protection of maritime workers. Seafarer abandonment cases reached record levels in 2024, a stark reminder of the human cost behind these logistical challenges.
So, what’s to be done? Both ADL and Unctad offer similar prescriptions. The ADL report identifies three imperatives for Gulf policymakers and logistics operators: predictive capability, regional coordination, and resilience integration into long-term planning. Gulf states, the report argues, must develop predictive tools—scenario-based modeling, real-time monitoring dashboards, and stress tests for critical nodes. Artificial intelligence could play a pivotal role in early signal detection and forecasting.
Regional coordination is equally vital. "Contingency planning remains national, fragmented, and siloed," ADL observes. The consultancy recommends pre-negotiated intergovernmental agreements to share port infrastructure, streamline customs during crises, and establish common protocols for rerouting essential cargo. Embedding resilience into infrastructure planning is crucial: governments should include redundancy pathways and capacity buffers within port concession frameworks and national logistics strategies. As the report puts it, "embedding resilience upstream turns it from a cost centre into a source of competitive advantage."
Unctad, for its part, calls for stable trade policies, investment in green and resilient infrastructure, faster digitalization, and support for developing economies. Without coordinated measures, the sector faces continued cost pressures, disrupted trade flows, and uneven progress toward sustainable maritime transport.
ADL’s analysis is unambiguous: "Preparedness is not optional, it is an economic differentiator. Countries that can maintain continuity under stress will attract more trade partners and investment." The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, once a distant nightmare, is now "no longer a theoretical possibility." As Carlomagno, one of the report’s authors, succinctly put it, "The tools to shift from reaction to preparedness already exist. What’s missing is political will."
With conflict in the Red Sea, global chokepoints under strain, and climate volatility on the rise, the message is clear: only those nations and companies that invest in resilience today will be able to keep trade flowing when the next disruption inevitably arrives.