Guinea-Bissau, a small West African nation long troubled by political instability, has once again plunged into crisis following a disputed presidential election and a subsequent military coup. The dramatic events have left the country’s democratic future hanging in the balance, with international actors scrambling to restore order and ensure the will of the people is respected.
The trouble began after Guinea-Bissau held its presidential election on November 23, 2025. Both incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa claimed victory even before provisional results were released. The political atmosphere was already tense, but things took a sharp turn for the worse when, just a day before the expected announcement of results, armed men stormed the National Electoral Commission (CNE) tabulation room. According to CNE deputy executive secretary Idrissa Djalo, these men wore balaclavas, arrested the CNE president and five Supreme Court judges, and threatened 45 commission agents. "They seized their phones and computers and destroyed all the tally sheets. We only have the tally sheets from Bissau," Djalo told reporters, as cited by multiple news agencies.
The destruction was comprehensive. Djalo explained that the main server and all equipment related to vote tallying were destroyed. Tally sheets from Oio and Cacheu, which were in transit, were intercepted and confiscated by other armed men. As a result, Djalo declared, "Today, we are unable to conclude the electoral process." The CNE president, Mpabi Cabi, who had been detained for five days, appeared publicly alongside Djalo on December 2, 2025, to confirm the extent of the damage and the impossibility of publishing election results.
With the election results in limbo, the military seized control of Guinea-Bissau on November 26, 2025. President Embalo, who had initially declared he was deposed and arrested, managed to flee to Brazzaville in the Republic of Congo. The military authorities quickly moved to tighten their grip, banning all demonstrations and strikes. They appointed former army chief of staff General Horta Inta-A to lead a one-year transitional government. On November 29, Inta-A named a new 28-member cabinet, which notably included many figures allied with the deposed president, raising eyebrows about the true motives and allegiances behind the coup.
The international response was swift and severe. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc widely regarded as West Africa’s principal political authority, dispatched a high-level delegation to Guinea-Bissau on December 1, 2025. Led by Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio, the ECOWAS mission engaged in mediation talks with the coup leaders. Sierra Leone’s Foreign Minister Timothy Musa Kabba described the discussions as "very fruitful," noting that "both sides have expressed their different concerns." Joao Bernardo Vieira, Guinea-Bissau’s newly appointed foreign minister, assured that ECOWAS would not abandon the country during this tumultuous period. "The transitional authorities and the military will continue their discussions," he said, according to official statements.
However, ECOWAS made it clear that it would not tolerate the disruption of constitutional rule. The bloc suspended Guinea-Bissau from all its decision-making bodies "until the restoration of full and effective constitutional order in the country." Nigeria, a key ECOWAS member, went a step further. President Bola Tinubu authorized protection for opposition leader Dias da Costa, citing an "imminent threat to his life." Dias da Costa is currently sheltering at the Nigerian embassy in Bissau, and Nigeria’s foreign ministry has formally requested an ECOWAS troop deployment to ensure his safety.
The crisis has also had violent repercussions on the ground. The African Independence Party for Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the country’s main opposition party, reported that its headquarters in the capital had been "illegally invaded by heavily armed militia groups." The PAIGC had already been barred from presenting a candidate in the November election, a move denounced by civil rights groups as part of a broader crackdown on dissent.
The United Nations added its voice to the growing chorus of condemnation. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that he was gravely concerned by the military takeover, warning that ignoring "the will of the people who peacefully cast their vote during the November 23 general elections constitutes an unacceptable violation of democratic principles." Guterres called for the "immediate and unconditional restoration of constitutional order" and the release of all detained officials, including electoral authorities and opposition figures.
Guinea-Bissau’s predicament is sadly familiar. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has experienced four coups and numerous attempted takeovers. Chronic instability has left it among the world’s poorest nations, with weak institutions and a fragile economy. The recent coup has led to Guinea-Bissau’s suspension from the African Union, joining a growing list of African states—including Burkina Faso, Mali, Madagascar, Niger, and Sudan—sidelined after military takeovers.
Speculation abounds regarding the true motives behind the coup. Some observers have suggested that the military acted with the blessing of ousted President Embalo, who now resides in exile. However, the destruction of the electoral commission’s records and the arrest of top judicial officials point to a broader effort to erase the results and prevent any clear outcome from emerging. With the main server and almost all tally sheets destroyed, there is no way to verify who actually won the election. The only surviving records are from Bissau, a fraction of the national vote, leaving the process fatally compromised.
The international community faces a daunting challenge. ECOWAS has pledged to remain engaged, but its influence depends on the willingness of Guinea-Bissau’s new authorities to cooperate. The military, for its part, insists on a one-year transition, but the composition of its cabinet and the heavy-handed suppression of opposition suggest that genuine democratic renewal may be a long way off.
For ordinary citizens, the situation is bleak. Political uncertainty, the threat of violence, and the suspension of democratic processes have left many fearful for the future. Guinea-Bissau’s history of coups and instability has bred a deep sense of cynicism, but there remains hope that regional and international pressure can eventually restore some measure of order and legitimacy.
As Guinea-Bissau’s leaders and international partners grapple with the fallout from the latest coup, the country’s fate hangs in the balance. The coming months will test the resolve of ECOWAS, the UN, and Guinea-Bissau’s own civil society to push for accountability, transparency, and a return to constitutional rule—no small feat in a nation where democracy has so often been derailed.