On September 21, 2025, Guinea found itself at a critical crossroads as citizens cast their ballots in a constitutional referendum that could fundamentally reshape the nation’s political landscape. The stakes are high: the draft constitution, if approved, would open the door for General Mamadi Doumbouya—the country’s military ruler since a 2021 coup—to run for president, extend presidential terms, and introduce sweeping changes to the way the country is governed. As vote counting commenced across the nation, the air was thick with both anticipation and tension, with many wondering whether this would mark a genuine step toward democracy or simply cement military power under a new legal guise.
The referendum is more than just a technical exercise in governance. It is the centerpiece of Guinea’s promised transition from military to civilian rule, a process that has drawn intense scrutiny from regional neighbors and international observers alike. According to Al Jazeera, the poll was conducted under a heavy security presence and a strict ban on protests—an atmosphere that underscores the government’s determination to maintain order, but also its wariness of dissent. Thousands of security personnel were reportedly deployed across the country to deter unrest, a clear indication of the authorities’ concern over the potential for opposition-led disruption.
Yet, for many Guineans, the referendum has raised more questions than answers. Critics, including prominent opposition figures and international human rights organizations, have labeled the vote a thinly veiled power grab by General Doumbouya and his allies. As TimesLIVE reported, the military-led government missed its own deadline for a return to civilian rule at the end of 2024, and the December 2025 presidential election now looms as the next major milestone. In the meantime, the new constitution would not only allow junta members to run for office but also extend the presidential mandate from five to seven years—renewable twice. It would also create a senate, with one-third of senators directly appointed by the president, further consolidating executive influence.
Opposition to the referendum has been fierce, but largely muted, thanks to a systematic clampdown on dissent. Over the past year, more than 50 political parties were dissolved by the military regime, a move it justified as necessary to "clean up the political chessboard," according to Premium Times. In the weeks leading up to the vote, the three main opposition parties were suspended, effectively silencing their campaigns and restricting their ability to communicate with the public. Both Cellou Dalein Diallo and deposed former president Alpha Conde—two of the country’s most prominent opposition leaders—called for a boycott of the referendum, but with their parties sidelined, their influence was sharply curtailed.
The government, for its part, has argued that the referendum is a pivotal step toward restoring constitutional order and ending Guinea’s international isolation. The Prime Minister, as cited by Al Jazeera, insisted that the poll would "return Guinea to constitutional order and end its international isolation." Supporters of the draft constitution point to proposed benefits such as increased female representation and a more structured political system. Still, the shadow of authoritarianism lingers, with Human Rights Watch accusing the government of disappearing political opponents and arbitrarily suspending media outlets. The government has denied any involvement in such disappearances and pledged to investigate the allegations, but trust remains in short supply.
On voting day, polling stations opened at 7 a.m. local time and were scheduled to close at 6 p.m., though some extended their hours to accommodate latecomers. The referendum was organized by the Directorate General of Elections, a newly created body whose two leaders were handpicked by Doumbouya himself. This agency is now overseeing the crucial vote count, with the results expected to determine the trajectory of Guinea’s political future. For the referendum to pass, at least 50% of the country’s 6.7 million eligible voters must participate—a threshold that, given the opposition’s call for a boycott, is by no means guaranteed.
General Doumbouya himself made a high-profile appearance at a downtown Conakry polling station early Sunday morning, accompanied by his wife and son and shielded by heavily armed special forces. His presence was both symbolic and strategic, signaling his commitment to the process while projecting an image of security and control. Notably, when Doumbouya first seized power in 2021, he publicly vowed not to run for president. The transition charter adopted by his government even stipulated that junta members would be barred from standing in the next election. Now, with the new constitution poised to overturn that restriction, many are left wondering whether Doumbouya’s initial promises were genuine or simply expedient.
Outside the polling stations, the mood was mixed. Some, like clothing seller Ibrahima Sory Diallo, expressed deep skepticism. "I didn't vote, because the coup leaders broke their promises of respecting the country's laws," Diallo told reporters outside a Conakry polling station, as quoted by AP. For others, particularly among the youth, Doumbouya’s vision of a prosperous and developed Guinea remains appealing, and his popularity—at least in some quarters—endures despite the controversies swirling around the referendum.
The international community has watched Guinea’s experiment with military rule and constitutional change with a wary eye. The country is not alone in its predicament: Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have all experienced military takeovers in recent years, reshaping the political landscape of West Africa. According to TimesLIVE, eight coups between 2020 and 2023 have left the region in flux, with questions about the durability of democratic institutions and the prospects for genuine civilian governance.
Amid all the political maneuvering, Guinea’s economic prospects have also come into focus. The country, which boasts the world’s largest reserves of bauxite, received its first sovereign credit rating from S&P Global Ratings just days before the referendum. The agency assigned Guinea a B+ rating with a stable outlook, making it the third best-rated economy in West Africa. However, S&P also cautioned that "social needs are high and tensions with the opposition are elevated with accusation of arbitrary arrests and rising pressure on the media."
As the ballots are tallied and the nation awaits the official results, one thing is clear: the outcome of this referendum will have lasting implications not just for Guinea, but for the broader region. Whether this marks the beginning of a true transition to civilian rule or simply a new chapter in military dominance remains to be seen. For now, the eyes of Guinea—and much of West Africa—remain fixed on the counting rooms, hoping for clarity in a time of uncertainty.